Anticipation around the Democratic primary for the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office race was shaping up to be a two-person race between Julie Gunnigle and Will Knight, but when the county uploaded early ballots at 8 p.m. on August 4, Gunnigle won by a landslide. 

Gunnigle’s victory, where she still maintains 60% of the vote, puts her in prime position to lead the office as the first Democrat since Charles Hyder in 1980, and the first woman elected to the seat.

But she has to take down Allister Adel, the Republican appointed incumbent first. 

Adel was appointed in October by the Board of Supervisors after Gov. Doug Ducey tapped Bill Montgomery to the Arizona Supreme Court a month prior. She is the first woman to hold the top prosecutor role in the county. 

Neither Gunnigle nor Adel has ever won a general election, but Gunnigle at least had prior experience running a campaign when she tried for the state House in Legislative District 15 in 2018. The two candidates seem to be doing alright in fundraising for county offices, too.

Gunnigle raised the least amount of money of the three Democratic candidates, but kept the most on hand. She brought in $122,000 overall with $48,000 left in the bank. Adel raised $268,000 and has almost $100,000 heading into the general election cycle, but she did not have a primary opponent to spend against. 

This race to lead the nation’s fourth largest county prosecutor’s office is a far cry from the 2016 election that pitted now-Rep. Diego Rodriguez, D-Phoenix, against Montgomery, the Republican incumbent. Montgomery won in a special election in 2010 and then again in 2012 for his first full term, but never faced a real opponent until Rodriguez, a relative unknown at the time. 

Rodriguez mustered enough support to cut Montgomery’s margin of victory to 5 percentage points, which for a political newcomer was quite impressive given the larger Republican hold the county had at the time. Four years later, Democratic turnout has skyrocketed with the party picking up seats left and right, meaning Gunnigle very well could flip that office if she runs a similar campaign that she did for the primary, consultants say.

Roughly 210,000 more voters participated in the County Attorney primary races this year than the 2016 primary, with still tens of thousands of ballots to count. 

Barrett Marson, a Republican consultant with Marson Media, said one aspect that could play well for Gunnigle’s chances is if Joe Arpaio, the convicted and pardoned former sheriff, is able to overcome his 500-vote deficit from his former chief deputy Jerry Sheridan.

“Sheriff and county attorney go hand in hand,” Marson said, adding that if Arpaio is not on the ballot then the outside spending that affected the 2016 county races won’t be the same this time around. 

That outside spending he’s referring to is mostly credited to Democratic billionaire and hedge fund tycoon George Soros, whose political groups typically target county/district attorney races around the country. Soros-funded groups contributed around $1.3 million to an anti-Montgomery group called Arizona Safety & Justice. He also spent heavily to defeat Arpaio, which came to fruition. 

“If they’re going to stay out of the sheriff’s race, I think that would bode well for Allister,” Marson said. “Neither Allister nor Sheridan are the same type of polarizing figures as Arpaio and Montgomery, so the risk or threat of outside money may be less.” 

Democratic consultant Chad Campbell, with Strategies 360, doesn’t see it that way.

“I don’t think the other county races will have much of an impact on this race,” Campbell said.

The national conversation around criminal justice reform has put Maricopa County in somewhat of a spotlight and coupled with higher Democratic turnout could mean it’s time for a Democrat to control the office, he said. 

Campbell said if Arpaio does pull off a win, the sheriff’s race will become a circus and will draw attention away from Gunnigle and Adel. 

Arpaio being on the ballot with President Donald Trump could also play into an even higher turnout for not only Democrats, but also Latinos, which would likely play into more down ballot races. 

Campbell said Trump is still the biggest factor for turnout this year, and that alone could spell victory for Gunnigle. He said he wasn’t surprised that Gunnigle won the primary or won by a lot because “she ran a better campaign” than Knight or Robert McWhirter. 

“On a national level people are looking at Arizona as a state that’s changing top to bottom … the turnout [in the primary] exceeded everybody’s expectations,” he said, adding that Democratic enthusiasm in that race will only increase for the general election. 

He said what will win Gunningle the election is support from suburban voters who see public safety as a priority. 

 “She will have some crossover appeal to those moderate Republican, suburban female voters that a Democrat will need in this county,” he said.

 The turnout in Maricopa County during the 2018 election was really the first time Arizona saw a significant increase from Democrats or Democrat-leaning independent voters and after picking up two seats from Republicans in 2016 (Sheriff Paul Penzone and County Recorder Adrian Fontes), Campbell thinks Gunnigle remains in good shape four years later. 

 More than just the turnout having a major factor is the element that stakes cannot be higher, progressive lobbyist Marilyn Rodriguez said. 

 “Electing Gunnigle would end a dynasty of mass incarceration in Arizona’s largest county. Julie has shown that she can win and brings an ability to unify the support she needs from the community behind her,” she said. 

 Unlike Gunnigle’s predecessors, who Rodriguez said oversaw a culture of discriminatory practices and shutting the public out, “we know Julie will bring changes to the office driven by actual community voices.” 

There isn’t an issue at the Capitol that Jennifer Marson hasn’t dealt with throughout her nearly 20-year career, but this former high school debater is always ready for the unpredictable – even if it means singing for a vote.

Marson, now executive director of the Arizona Association of Counties, started there as an intern in 2002 to research and advocate for issues such as law enforcement, criminal justice, education, property taxes and elections – her favorite issue. She didn’t start out to be a lobbyist, though. Marson gave up a scholarship to an art school, and ultimately her dream of becoming an actress, after an unplanned pregnancy in high school. Today, she says she’s the most interesting Marson at the Capitol. She and her husband Barrett Marson, a political consultant, met during one chaotic legislative session and bonded over wonky issues.

Is there any skill that you’ve taken from acting and applied to your work?

No, not from acting. From forensics (a speech and debate competition) 100 percent, but not from acting. Forensics was awesome. That’s all about being a persuasive speaker and crafting a persuasive argument that translates, whether you’re talking about it or whether someone’s reading it off the page, and that’s what I do every single day.

But when you lobby, isn’t that a role, an act?

Sure, but I think that keeping bridges between you and a legislator, even if you vehemently disagree on something that is important, because tomorrow, you may vehemently agree on something and you can’t burn that bridge just because you felt strongly one way or another, whatever the issue was.

Between your internship and today, was there any mistake you made that you won’t make again?

There have been times where I have misspoken, whether it was to a legislator in their office or sometimes in committee, but when I’ve realized that error, I’ve immediately followed up and apologized. Will I never do that again? I don’t know that that’s fair to say. Sometimes you just misspeak, you know? I can’t think of anything I’ve done that was like such a faux pas that I just, I didn’t know what I was doing. … You never know what someone’s going to ask you, especially when you’re in committee.

Has there been anything that’s happened over your time at AAC that surprised you?

I will say, gosh, I don’t even remember what the issue was, but I think it was then-Representatives (Randy)  Friese and Justin Pierce – they played guitar and sang all the time. I remember going into their office to talk about – they were both in Friese’s office, I think, and I went there to talk about something and they were both on board. And I was like, “Alright, so I’m going to put you in the yes column, right?” And they’re like, “No, no, no not so fast. You’re gonna need to sing us your request.” I’m like, “No, seriously, I’m just going to put you in the yes column, right?” They’re like, “Nope, we’re going to need to hear your request in song.” So I had to come up with a little song, I guess there’s my acting right? I had to come up with a little song on the spot, to ask them to be yeses for whatever that issue was, and I did and I sang for all of 35 seconds and then they’re like, “Sweet, we’re on board.” So that was probably one of the weirdest, most surprising things. I just would never ever have imagined that would have happened.

Do you actually sing?

No, no, no, not with any kind of prowess. Sure, I jam in the car, but that’s different.

People say you’re the real brains behind all of Barrett’s snarky quotes.

Oh, gosh, Barrett would kill me. Not all of them, but we definitely collaborate on some of the snark, for sure. We’re a good team.

What’s it like being a Capitol couple? Are there boundaries at home? Is there a full-stop?

I wish there was a full stop sometimes. Barrett is very (much about) the news and what’s happening in the world is very important to him in a way that I could turn it off when I go home. That’s not his style. There have only been, and I won’t tell you what they are, but there have only been maybe two or three issues the entire time I’ve known Barrett where maybe he was working with someone that was on a different side of my folks. It just doesn’t happen that often. Because it doesn’t happen we talk about everything all the time.

You’re also a yoga enthusiast? How did you start?

Yoga is awesome. If you’re not doing yoga you should be doing it. I was working a lot and I didn’t have a lot of sleep for about a decade. I got used to sleeping three, maybe four hours a night. Part of it was I could never turn my brain off. I was always thinking about what I had to do next. Yoga taught me how to turn that off. Now I sleep totally different and it has changed my life.

Is your mind clearer?

I think my ability to let things go is clearer. People tend to hold on to things. Oh, remember that one time when someone said that one thing about me or so and so told me they were going to vote yes and then they voted no, right? There was a time when that would have stuck with me and I would have just ruminated on that and thought about it. Now I can just let it go because tomorrow’s a new day, and I’m going to have new conversations with new people. I don’t dwell the way that I used to, and it really has freed up a lot of mental space to do other things

As lawmakers start the new year, one topic will hang over their heads and color the legislative session more than any other. It’s not Medicaid or Child Protective Services or Common Core. It’s the 2014 elections.

Lawmakers, lobbyists and political observers all speculate that, like most election-year legislative sessions, the 2014 session will be a short one. Lawmakers are eager to adjourn so they can begin collecting campaign contributions from lobbyists and hit the campaign trail full time.

But having an election looming doesn’t just affect the duration of the session. It also influences what legislation lawmakers introduce and their personal relationships with their colleagues.

When lawmakers run against each other for higher office, allies quickly turn into opponents.

And relationships become strained when lawmakers are bashing their opponent on the campaign trail one day, and asking for their support on legislation at the Capitol the next day.

While most lawmakers will deny that running for another office affects the way they behave in their current job, actions speak louder than words. And many lawmakers seize opportunities that arise at the Capitol to embarrass or discredit their opponents — be it through introducing legislation that they know their opponent won’t support, or monitoring what their fellow lawmaker and campaign opponent says and does at the Capitol for inclusion in future campaign mailers.

And it’s not just Republicans versus Democrats. In many cases, Republicans are running against Republicans in primary elections, or Democrats against Democrats. In two races, Democrats are recruiting Democratic candidates to run against their Democratic colleagues who broke ranks on previous votes or negotiations.

The most high profile lawmaker-on-lawmaker campaign will be the GOP primary for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where House Speaker Andy Tobin and freshman Rep. Adam Kwasman will go head-to-head for the opportunity to take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in November.

As speaker of the House, Tobin can easily ensure that all of Kwasman’s legislation will go to unfavorable committees, or never reach a vote on the floor of the House, thus limiting his legislative accomplishments to tout on the campaign trail.

Tobin said he doesn’t plan to treat Kwasman any differently than he would any other Republican lawmaker. But to make a point, Kwasman is already promising to introduce legislation that he knows Tobin doesn’t support, but Republican primary voters do support.

Tobin kept a trio of anti-union bills from ever reaching the floor of the House last year, angering many conservatives who wanted to take stronger steps to curb unions in Arizona.

Several lawmakers who sponsored the anti-union bills have said they will not reintroduce them again this year, leading Kwasman to say he would take up the fight if no one else does. That move will, at a minimum, give him another opportunity to hit Tobin on the campaign trail over not supporting the anti-union legislation.

Republican political consultant Barrett Marson, who is not working for Tobin’s or Kwasman’s campaigns, said Kwasman’s tactic probably won’t be effective on the campaign trail, but he could end up being an annoyance for Tobin.

“In reality, Kwasman can’t do much to monkey up the session. Can he be a thorn in someone’s side? Sure. But can he be a real factor in the session? No,” Marson said.

The battle for secretary of state

Republican Rep. Justin Pierce of Mesa and Republican Sen. Michele Reagan of Scottsdale are vying for the job of top election official in the state, and will face each other in the GOP primary for secretary of state.

Reagan  told the Arizona Capitol Times that she is pushing for a repeal of her elections overhaul law from last year, HB2305, which remains on hold because opponents gathered more than 110,000 signatures to force a referendum on the law this November.

Reagan having to repeal a law she drafted would make good campaign fodder for Pierce. But he said while he hasn’t decided how he would vote on a repeal of HB2305, it probably won’t be a main line of attack against her in the primary.

“I voted for it here (too), so it wouldn’t make any sense for me to say, ‘Oh, this is such a terrible bill, we had to repeal it.’ I was one of those who voted for it because I felt like the good outweighed the bad,” Pierce said.

He acknowledged that the dual role of candidate and lawmaker could create complications for other people, but said he and Reagan can work together without problems.

Battling for legislative seats

In the West Valley’s LD21, Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko is challenging Republican Sen. Rick Murphy, for his Senate seat.

Lesko said people from her district and elsewhere urged her to run amid fears that Murphy’s personal woes — the Peoria Republican remains under investigation by Child Protective Services for allegations that he sexually abused two children in his care — could cost Republicans the Senate seat if he continues to run. A criminal investigation involving Murphy was dropped without charges being filed, and he has been critical of CPS’ handling of the case.

Murphy isn’t bowing out and called Lesko’s move a “coldly ambitious calculation… for personal gain.” Don’t expect the two, who formerly ran as a campaign team, to co-sponsor legislation this year.

And it’s not just Republican-on-Republican confrontations. Assistant House Minority Leader Ruben Gallego has recruited two candidates to run against two of his fellow Latino Democrats, who he views as not solidly with the Democratic caucus.

Gallego has recruited political newcomer Aaron Marquez to challenge his seatmate, Rep. Catherine Miranda, for their Phoenix district’s Senate seat. He also recruited Avondale resident Angela Cotera to run against Democratic Rep. Lupe Contreras in LD19.

Gallego said he actively looked for candidates to run against Miranda and Contreras because they weren’t toeing the party line, and there were rumors of them working with GOP leadership on a budget.

Contreras said that with Gallego actively working against him, it’s going to be tough for the two of them to get along or work together.

“It’s going to have an impact on the caucus,” Contreras said.