Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Be ready to see a lot of Ruben Gallego ads

Sick of those political ads on TV and radio?

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

A new report by AdImpact, which tracks these things, finds that politicians and the political action committees that support them have reserved almost $1.8 billion worth of commercial time between Labor Day and Election Day.

And close to $150 million of that is here in Arizona.

Most of that money, $65 million, is being devoted to the hotly contested race for the U.S. Senate, with about three-fourths of that on behalf of Democrat Ruben Gallego. In fact, AdImpact reports that Gallego himself set aside $18.3 million from his own campaign funds – the highest amount of any individual candidate in any Senate race in the nation.

The balance will come not just in whatever money that Republican Kari Lake can raise – she is far behind Gallego – but what outside interests spend here on both sides in an effort to influence the outcome.

That race has become one of the most highly watched as it could determine who gets control of the Senate. And it has become particularly important to Democrats to at least maintain their slim majority, with the House run by the GOP and the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump being a potential toss-up in electoral votes.

Overall, AdImpact predicts more than $603 million will be spent on the 34 Senate races in 2024, And almost $348 million of that is on behalf of Democrats.

That, the organization says, should come as no surprise.

“Democrats are facing an uphill climb for control of the Senate, running against a historically challenging map,” its new report states. And Republicans, who control 49 of the 100 seats, are poised to pick up the seat being vacated in West Virginia by Joe Manchin, “meaning they are on the precipice of a majority.”

And that means winning just a single other seat currently held by a Democrat – or, in the case of Arizona, by Kyrsten Sinema who reregistered from Democrat to independent – would give them control.

In another development, NBC News just reported that the political action committee affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is going to spend about $1.1 million in Arizona in a bid to get Gallego elected. That will be nearly $690,000 in Spanish broadcast spots, $250,000 on digital advertising and $158,000 on statewide Spanish radio.

Arizona also is crucial in the presidential race.

The most recent Cook Political Report figures 226 electoral votes are Democratic or leaning that way, with 219 for the GOP. That leaves 93 votes at play, with 270 needed to win.

And that list of toss-up states includes Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.

AdImpact says there’s nearly $40 million already reserved for ads in Arizona in the presidential race between now and Election Day.

The lion’s share of that – $34.9 million – is earmarked to elect Kamala Harris, with just $9.9 million in reservations on behalf of Donald Trump.

That, however, is less than the $86 million the company says was spent four years ago here in the same Labor Day to Election Day period.

Then, too, Democrats outspent Republicans: $51 million to $35 million. And that was just enough to have Joe Biden defeat Trump by 10,456 votes statewide.

Still, the nearly $40 million already reserved in Arizona for presidential ads this year is dwarfed by $136 million in Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes. Trump himself, in a recent pitch in Philadelphia, said, “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the presidency.”

That nearly $150 million estimate in total advertising spending in Arizona also includes ballot measures, though the report does not break out who has set aside funding.

Much of that is likely to be spent on Proposition 139, which would for the first time put a right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution. Even after paying for things like signature gathering, the most recent report of Arizona for Abortion Access, covering the period through the middle of July, listed more than $9.7 million cash on hand.

By contrast, It Goes Too Far, the committee organized in opposition, had less than $400,000 cash available at the same time.

In fact, AdImpact reports that almost $40 million is reserved in Arizona for commercials in that contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Only viewers in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan will see more.

Democratic Sen. Sinema has registered as an independent

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., flanked by Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., left, and Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, speaks to reporters following Senate passage of the Respect for...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

Sinema condemns activists pursuing her on campus

In this June 24, 2021, file photo, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., smiles as she returns to the Capitol after a meeting with President Joe Biden at...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

Infrastructure bill gives Sinema bipartisan victory

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., center, joined from left by, Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio,...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

Sinema, like McCain, reaches for bipartisanship

In this June 24, 2021, file photo, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., smiles as she returns to the Capitol after a meeting with President Joe Biden at...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

Brnovich takes feds to court over ban on tax cuts

 Attorney General Mark Brnovich  (Capitol Media Services photo by Howard Fischer) Attorney General Mark Brnovich is asking a federal judge to rule that Arizona can take...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

America’s Energy, Tech and Defense Future Needs Mining

As the recent trade war with China has escalated, Beijing has implied that it may retaliate by withholding rare earth minerals. Such a strategic vulnerability – and America’s alarmingly high reliance on...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

Close vote seen on background checks on gun buyers

[caption id="attachment_58354" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., becomes emotional as he meets in his office with families of victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Conn.,...

Get 24/7 political news coverage and access to events honoring top political professionals

You don't have credit card details available. You will be redirected to update payment method page. Click OK to continue.