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USMCA renewal is critical to Arizona and the nation

Steven G. Zylstra

When the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced NAFTA in 2020, it did more than modernize a landmark yet outdated agreement. It established the framework for more than $1.8 trillion in annual trade across North America as recently as 2024. That trade supports millions of jobs in the United States, thousands of them here in Arizona. Now, as the 2026 renewal decision approaches, the certainty provided by USMCA is on the line.

Carol Colombo

For Arizona, the stakes could not be higher. Mexico is our No. 1 trading partner and Canada is No. 2. From aerospace and electronics to copper, mining products, citrus and lettuce, nearly a third of Arizona’s total exports head to those two markets. In 2024 alone, Arizona exported about $9 billion in goods to Mexico and another $3 billion to Canada. These flows of trade represent paychecks for U.S. workers, revenue for businesses and opportunities for communities statewide.

Anyone watching the trucks line up at the Nogales-Mariposa Port of Entry knows how deeply our economy depends on cross-border commerce. The winter produce that fills U.S. grocery store shelves often comes through Nogales, while Arizona’s manufacturers export the parts and equipment used in everything from automobiles to jet engines. In Tucson, aerospace companies rely on supply chains that stretch across the border. In the East Valley, technology startups depend on USMCA’s digital trade provisions to keep their products moving efficiently. Without the agreement, many of these goods would face tariffs, delays or unpredictable rules that would harm competitiveness.

The agreement also provides something less visible but equally important: predictability. More than 7,000 Arizona companies exported goods in 2024, with the overwhelming majority small or mid-sized firms. These are not multinational giants backed by teams of lawyers and trade experts. They are local entrepreneurs who depend on USMCA to keep rules clear and markets open. Their ability to hire, expand and invest depends on certainty.

The public comment period on USMCA renewal is now open. Until Nov. 1, individuals, companies and organizations can submit their views to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. There will also be a public hearing on Nov. 17 in Washington, D.C. Arizona voices need to be heard. Policymakers want to know how trade agreements affect real communities. Whether your business relies on exporting to Mexico or Canada, your farm depends on tariff protections or your workers benefit from integrated supply chains, you must share your story now. 

Should the agreement unravel, Arizona would feel the shock first. Tariffs would rise, supply chains would fray and investment could shift elsewhere. The consequences would be fewer jobs, higher prices and slower growth. Preserving USMCA is not about politics. It is about protecting the backbone of Arizona’s economy and ensuring that families from Nogales to Phoenix to Flagstaff continue to benefit from strong cross-border ties.

At the national level, USMCA remains one of the few trade agreements that reflects the realities of today’s economy. It covers digital trade, labor protections and sustainable practices. It is a model for how trade can support good jobs, environmental responsibility and shared prosperity. USMCA is more than a treaty on paper. It is the system that powers businesses, supports jobs, strengthens supply chains and connects communities across North America. Weakening it would not only harm Arizona but also the entire United States.

Arizona’s future depends on certainty, not disruption. As the renewal decision approaches, our voices must be clear. We should continue to build on USMCA, not dismantle it.

Steven Zylstra is president and CEO of the Arizona Technology Council & SciTech Institute. 

Carol Colombo is managing member of Fedelta Partners and the AzDEC chairwoman.

Trump’s trade policies spark tomato tariff battle in Arizona

Key Points:
  • U.S. imposes 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomatoes
  • Tariff could increase prices by 10% or more
  • Sen. Ruben Gallego estimates tomato prices could rise 50%

Those tomatoes used in everything from your salads to salsa are going to get more expensive.

And really soon.

The U.S. Department of Commerce on Monday imposed an immediate 17.09% tariff on tomatoes imported into this country from Mexico. And given most of the tomatoes sold in Arizona — and, for that matter, in the United States — come from Mexico, estimates are the new charge could add 10% to prices.

Or more: Sen. Ruben Gallego, in his own plea to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asking him not to impose the tariffs, cited a study suggesting that tomato prices could rise an average of 50%.

None of that convinced the secretary.

“For far too long our farmers have been crushed by unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes,” he said in a prepared statement. “That ends today.”

The move ends what is known as the “Tomato Suspension Agreement,” first instituted in 1996, where the federal agency agreed not to impose tariffs on tomatoes from Mexico if they were not sold below a certain “reference price.” Essentially, a floor on what’s paid to the farmer or grower, it runs from 31 cents to 83 cents a pound, depending on the time of year, the kind of tomato, whether it is grown in a controlled environment, and whether it is organic or not.

The agreements, last updated in 2019, also have requirements for inspection at the border.

In April, responding to complaints led by the Florida Tomato Exchange, the Commerce Department concluded that Mexican companies were selling tomatoes in the United States at prices below what it costs to produce or below prices in their home markets. That led the agency to announce it was terminating the agreement.

And that, in turn, paved the way for the Commerce Department to impose what it calls an “anti-dumping” duty.

The concept is not unique. According to the agency, it currently has 768 anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders, “which provide relief to American companies and industries impacted by unfair trade.”

On July 14, Gov. Katie Hobbs blamed the price hike on the president.

“Donald Trump’s reckless trade war is raising prices, threatening our economic growth and killing jobs,” she said in a prepared statement. “He is threatening to kill over 50,000 jobs between Arizona and Texas and forcing Arizonans to pay more at the grocery store, all to benefit Florida farmers.”

According to a study by Texas A&M University, the tomato import trade directly and indirectly supports 50,000 jobs in the two states, totaling $8.3 billion in economic impact.

Hobbs, however, did not address the findings by the Commerce Department that Mexican farmers were using “unfair trade practices,” to give them a financial advantage over domestic producers. Instead, press aide Christian Slater said she is focused solely on what all this means here.

“She gives a damn about Arizonans losing their jobs and paying more for tomatoes at the grocery store,” he said.

But Robert Guenter, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, said that ending the suspension agreements was long overdue.

“For more than three decades, five consecutive agreements have failed to stop the illegal dumping of unfairly priced tomatoes into the U.S. market from Mexican producers,” he said in prepared comments. “This dumping has devastated the U.S. tomato industry: More than 60% of U.S. tomato growers have gone out of business since 2000, and the U.S. market share has dropped from 80% to 30% during that time.”

Three members of Arizona’s congressional delegation, however, have their own theory about why all that is occurring. They contend that if domestic growers are losing a share of the market, some of it could be their own fault.

“While some segments of the North American tomato supply chain have innovated to meet evolving consumer preferences, others have not,” wrote Sen. Mark Kelly and Rep. Greg Stanton, both Democrats, and Republican Rep. David Schweikert in their own letter in May to Lutnick in opposition to the tariff plan. “It is clear to us that imported tomatoes are not the root cause of the challenges that some portions of our domestic industry face.”

Kelly doubled down on that Monday.

“Terminating this agreement won’t solve the problems facing Arizona growers,” he said in a prepared statement. And the senator also said that the administration “has not found any violations” despite Lutnick’s findings of unfair trade practices.

Lutnick, in Monday’s statement, defended the move.

“This rule change is in line with President Trump’s trade policies and approach with Mexico,” he said.

Hobbs, in her press release, attached statements from others also opposed to the new tariffs.

“This decision will damage trade imports and have severe consequences for Nogales in revenue, employment and trade,” said Mayor Jorge Maldonado.

“The policy will shift costs to Arizona small businesses, restaurants and grocers, which will raise prices, slow hiring and threaten livelihoods,” said Kimber Lanning, chief executive of Local First Arizona.

And Todd Sanders, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, called the now-scrapped agreement “a model of fair trade, balancing access to Mexico’s ideal growing conditions with protections for U.S. growers and consumers.”

The issue of free trade and tariff-free tomatoes has been a bipartisan effort in Arizona for years.

In 2019, then-Gov. Doug Ducey wrote to Wilbur Ross, who then headed the Department of Commerce,  urging him not to scrap the suspension agreement. The focus of the Republican governor, at least in part, was the economic impact on border communities which are integral to the importation process.

“Border communities are essential to our nation’s trade with Mexico and efforts focused on promoting investment and job creation in these areas are vital,” Ducey wrote.

That did result in the Commerce Department, under the first Trump administration, extending the agreement — until now.

Last year, Hobbs added her voice when extension of the contract was under the purview of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, an appointee of President Biden. She, along with Sonora Gov. Alfonso Durazo, urged Raimondo to “reject any attempt to terminate this vital agreement and instead renew it for another five years.”

In the end, though, the agency, now back under Trump, concluded an extension made no sense.

The Arizona Farm Bureau, for its part, is taking no official position about the decision by the Department of Commerce to end the suspension agreement. It has members who grow tomatoes not only in Arizona but also in Mexico.

But Julie Murphree, a spokeswoman for the organization, said it is concerning.

“We do like to point out that Mexico is our largest trading partner,” she said, saying her organization had hoped there could be a new agreement.

Murphree also said this isn’t about competition with Arizona operations which tend to grow specialty tomatoes in greenhouses.

“Our production would barely put a dent in relieving any of the demand,” she said.

Other states, however, have a different perspective. And it’s not just Florida.

Dan Wright, president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, sent his own letter to Lutnick supporting the end of the suspension agreement, calling it a “critical step toward re-establishing a fair market for American farmers.”

Mexico presses forward with Arizona gun dealer lawsuit despite SCOTUS ruling

Key Points:
  • Mexico cites specific illegal gun sales in Arizona
  • Supreme Court ruling targeted manufacturers, not dealers
  • Case alleges dealers knowingly sold to traffickers

Mexico is not dropping its lawsuit against five Arizona gun dealers despite a U.S. Supreme Court ruling tossing a similar case against gun manufacturers.

Steve Shadowen, who represents Mexico, told Capitol Media Services that the facts in that country’s claim against Smith & Wesson and others are sufficiently different from those in the lawsuit filed here in 2022.

On one hand, he said Justice Elena Kagan, writing for the unanimous court, acknowledge that there are “unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers.” But Shadowen said Kagan concluded that the manufacturers are too far removed from the actual gun dealers that sell to the cartels to make them legally liable.

The Arizona lawsuit, by contrast, actually cites specific sales made by each specific dealer of weapons the Mexican government says wound up in their country.

“The government of Mexico, on behalf of its citizens, will continue to pursue the Arizona litigation in which the defendants are gun dealers that the complaint alleges deal directly with the cartels,” Shawowen said.

He is not the only one prepared to go forward.

“There are two trials,” said Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on June 5T when she was asked about the Supreme Court throwing out her country’s case against the manufacturers. The other is the pending lawsuit in Arizona.

“We’re going to see what the result is, and we’ll let you know.” she said.

And David Pucino, legal director of the Giffords Law Center, said the ruling is only about this one case by Mexico against manufacturers.

“The justices did not give the gun industry the broad immunity it sought,” he said in a prepared statement.

There was no immediate response about the impact of the Supreme Court’s latest ruling from attorneys who are defending the Arizona gun shops.

In the case before the high court, Mexico sued seven American gun manufacturers, alleging that the companies aided and abetted unlawful gun sales that routed firearms to Mexican cartels.

The claim was that the companies failed to exercise “reasonable care” to prevent trafficking of their guns into Mexico. And that, the Mexican government argued, made them responsible for the harms in that country from the misuse of the weapons.

In fact, the Mexican government contends that as many as 90% of the guns recovered at crime scenes in that country originated in the United States.

Justices agreed that the manufacturers are shielded by the federal Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act. Approved by Congress in 2005 at the behest of the gun industry, it is designed to protect firearms manufacturers and gun deals from any liability when crimes have been committed with their products.

There are exceptions.

One involves any actions “in which a manufacturer or seller of a qualified product knowingly violated a state or federal statutes applicable to the sale or marketing of the product, and the violation as a proximate cause of the harm for which relief is sought.”

While the justices did not question that U.S. manufactured guns sold by U.S. dealers wound up in Mexico — there is only one legal gun retailer in all of Mexico — they said there is nothing in the lawsuit to show the manufacturers in any way aided and abetted any unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers. And that, said Kagan, is fatal to the lawsuit.

“The complaint does not pinpoint, as most aiding-and-abetting claims do, any specific criminal transactions that the defendants (allegedly) assisted,” she wrote. “Instead, the complaint levels a more general accusation: that all the manufacturers assist some number of unidentified rogue gun dealers in making a host of firearms sales in violation of various legal bars.”

The case in Arizona is different.

In that lawsuit, Mexico claims it already has evidence that the five Arizona stores were engaged in unlawful sales.

One example cited in the lawsuit involves the 2019 sale of thousands of rounds of ammunition made by Diamondback Shooting Sports in Tucson to two individuals.

That same day they attempted to enter Mexico through Nogales. But U.S. customs officers discovered the ammo and the pair were charged with trafficking.

Another involves claims that SnG Tactical in Tucson made a cash sale to an individual of six AK-47 rifles over the course of approximately one week in September 2018. It also says that the same store sold more than $80,000 firearms to another individual, including 11 over a two-week period in March 2019, many paid for in cash.

He, too, was convicted of trafficking.

There also are claims against Loan Prairie LLC, doing business as The Hub, in Tucson; Ammo A-Z LLC in Phoenix, and Sprague’s Sports Inc. in Yuma.

Overall, attorneys for Mexico told U.S. District Court Judge Rosemary Marquez that over the prior five years, each of the Arizona stores has been among the 10 dealers with the most crime guns recovered in Mexico and traced back to a dealership in Arizona. And it estimates that each of the five stores is involved in “trafficking” between 55 and 822 guns to Mexico annually.

But one of the items in the complaint filed in federal court in Arizona against the retailers may not hold sway if and when this case ever reaches the U.S. Supreme Court.

In agreeing last year to let this lawsuit go forward, Marquez said the complaint alleges there were “red flags” like bulk and cash sales that should have indicated to the gun dealers that what they were selling ultimately would wind up being used by cartel members in Mexico. And one of those red flags, she said, was “repeat sales of military-style weapons favored by Mexico cartels.”

A similar allegation was made by Mexico in its lawsuit against the manufacturers, citing the companies’ production of military style assault weapons like AR-15 rifles, AK-47 rifles and .50 caliber sniper rifles. That, however, did not impress Kagan.

“Those products are both widely legal and bought by many ordinary consumers,” she said, citing data showing the AR-15 to be the most popular rifle in the country. “The manufacturers cannot be charged with assisting in criminal acts just because Mexican cartel members like those guns too.”

Lawmakers approve bill to require Gulf of America be taught in schools

State lawmakers gave final approval on May 6 to require that Arizona high schoolers be taught that the body of water from Florida all the way around to the Yucatan be called the Gulf of America. The last word now belongs to Gov. Katie Hobbs.

House Bill 2700 was crafted by Rep. Theresa Martinez in the wake of the edict by President Trump renaming what for centuries has been called here — and is still called elsewhere — the Gulf of Mexico.

“It’s important to start teaching pro-America to our students,” the Casa Grande Republican said in crafting the measure and pushing it through the House with all Republicans in support and all Democrats opposed. “What better way to promote a patriotic country and teach children about patriotism than to start calling it Gulf of America and taking pride in that?”

The same day, the Senate followed suit, also along party lines — but not before one Democrat made it clear how ridiculous she thinks the mandate is.

Rep. Lauren Kuby, D-Tempe, said the body of water got its name from a combination of diplomacy and geographic accuracy.

The name actually goes back to the 1600s. At that time, none of the land bordering the gulf belonged to the American colonies: Florida belonged to the Spanish, the area in and around Louisiana was owned by the French, and Texas was part of Mexico.

“But we’re not a nation or state bound by facts or history books,” Kuby said. “We’re a nation powered by vibes, by slogans, and the unshakable belief that everything is better when it has the word ‘America’ duct-taped to it.”

Kuby said this form of rewriting geography is a little different than decisions made to rewrite climate reports and high school textbooks to suit a political agenda.

“If we can manifest our own facts, why not our own oceans?” she asked.

“So here’s to the Gulf of America, proudly polluted, seriously rebranded, and only 60% controlled by the U.S.,” Kuby said. “May the next hurricane make landfall with patriotic intent.”

Trade and trust – the power of interdependence

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is far more than just a trade pact. It is a framework for economic cooperation, designed not only to increase trade, create jobs, and foster cross-border investment, but to build enduring relationships between three of the world’s largest economies. A key to the USMCA’s success lies in its application of interdependence. This model reveals how repeated interactions and cooperation over time can build trust, mitigate the risks of short-term self-interest, and ultimately create a system of mutual benefit.

Julio Espinoza

The concept of interdependence in negotiations highlights how the choices of each party can significantly impact the outcomes for all involved. When faced with a single negotiation, the focus may naturally fall on immediate gains, potentially leading to less-than-ideal results for everyone. However, when these negotiations are ongoing and repeated, a different dynamic emerges. Recognizing the value of continued interactions, countries are incentivized to prioritize cooperation and seek mutually beneficial solutions, leading to sustained and mutually advantageous outcomes. This understanding of interdependence is central to the USMCA and the framework’s success.

In practice, applying this understanding of interdependence within the USMCA means recognizing the long-term stakes of these relationships and prioritizing cooperation over short-term gains. For instance, Mexico’s agreement to raise labor standards was reciprocated by the U.S. ensuring continued agricultural market access. This cycle of mutual concessions creates a stable and predictable environment for both nations. With $700 billion in annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico and over $600 billion in trade with Canada (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023), this trust-based collaboration strengthens the economic foundation of North America.

This approach, which emphasizes interdependence in negotiations, not only addresses current trade issues but allows for the flexibility to adjust priorities over time. Canada, for example, values continued access to U.S. markets for dairy and timber, while Mexico focuses on infrastructure and labor reforms. The U.S., in turn, seeks protection of intellectual property and reducing trade imbalances. The $112 billion U.S. trade deficit with Mexico in 2022 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023) underscores the necessity of ongoing negotiations to address imbalances and ensure fairness. By engaging in repeated negotiations and adjusting priorities incrementally, all three countries ensure the durability of their trade relationships.

The impact of the USMCA has been significant. The agreement has already created more than 76,000 new jobs in the U.S., expanding opportunities in agriculture, digital trade, and intellectual property protection (U.S. International Trade Commission, 2023). The combined $1.7 trillion in annual trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada underscores the deep interdependence that has been built through years of reciprocal cooperation and mutual trust.

However, the success of this framework faces external challenges. The rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a growing economic bloc is reshaping the global trade landscape. Together, BRICS countries represent 24% of global GDP and over 40% of the world’s population (Statista, 2023), and their growing influence presents a real challenge to North American dominance. The Belt and Road Initiative launched by China, projected to cost $8 trillion by 2049 (China Daily, 2023), shows how new trade routes and partnerships could shift global economic power.

To counter these challenges, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada must remain united under the USMCA, ensuring that their cooperation continues to evolve. Mexico is the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, valued at over $20 billion annually (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023), and the U.S. benefits from continued access to $3.5 billion worth of Canadian dairy products each year (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). These reciprocal trade arrangements are the direct result of the iterative, trust-based negotiations supported by the USMCA.

Another critical success of the USMCA is its protection of intellectual property, which has already generated $2.8 billion in additional revenue for U.S. companies (U.S. International Trade Commission, 2023).

The evolving global economic landscape, particularly the rise of China, underscores the need for continued strategic cooperation under the USMCA. The $1.7 trillion in annual trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico is a testament to how trust, iterative cooperation, and long-term thinking can ensure continued prosperity in the face of external pressures.

Julio Espinoza is an international trade analyst with Molera Alvarez LLC.

 

The politics of immigration play differently along the US-Mexico border

SUNLAND PARK, N.M. (AP) — The politics of immigration look different from the back patio of Ardovino’s Desert Crossing restaurant.

That’s where Robert Ardovino sees a Border Patrol horse trailer rumbling across his property on a sweltering summer morning. It’s where a surveillance helicopter traces a line in the sky, and a nearby Border Patrol agent paces a desert gully littered with castoff water bottles and clothing.

It’s also where a steady stream of weary people, often escorted by smugglers, scale a border wall or the slopes of Mount Cristo Rey and step into an uncertain future. It’s a stretch of desert where reports of people dying of exhaustion and exposure have become commonplace.

“It’s very obvious to me, being on the border, that it’s not an open border. It is a very, very, very difficult situation,” said Ardovino, who pays for private fencing topped by concertina wire to route migrants around a restaurant and vintage aluminum trailers that he rents to overnight guests.

“I wish the facts would rule this conversation, and being here, I know they do not.”

As immigration politics have moved to the forefront of this year’s presidential election, they’ve dominated contests across the country for congressional seats that could determine which party controls Congress. But the urgency of the situation is greater in some districts than others.

Three of 11 congressional district races along the southern U.S. border are hotly-contested rematches in districts that flipped in 2022 with the election of Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico and Republican Reps. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona and Monica De La Cruz in Texas.

A partner in a decades-old family business, Ardovino lives in one border district in Texas and works in Vasquez’s district in New Mexico. He was disappointed by the collapse in February of a bipartisan border bill in Washington, and he bristles at politicians talking from afar about an “open border.”

What he wants, more than anything, is a collective fix — one that doesn’t diminish the work of border agents or gloss over real-world challenges like migrants fleeing dictators.

“It’s frustrating for people who need a border bill of any kind, any time, to start dealing with the big picture,” Ardovino said. “I’d rather be running a restaurant than working on these fences.”

Democrats touting border solutions

Early voting starts Oct. 8 in Sunland Park, on the edge of a whiplashed congressional district that flipped in 2018, 2020 and again in 2022 with the election of Vasquez.

Democrats in Congress are promoting border enforcement as seldom before, including a half-dozen bills from Vasquez. He touts his knowledge of the region as the U.S.-born son of immigrants with relatives on both sides of the border.

“With migrant activity along the border, we have had to adjust our approach,” said Vasquez. “I can say here that the sky is blue for 50 years, but when it turns red, you have to admit that it’s turning red.”

Here, border politics are literally matters of life and death. Federal and local authorities describe a new humanitarian crisis along New Mexico’s nearly 180-mile portion of the border, where migrant deaths from heat exposure have surged and merciless smuggling cartels inflict havoc.

Where Doña Ana County shares a 45-mile stretch of border with Mexico, the sheriff’s department reported 78 lifeless migrant bodies found between January and mid-August.

“The death toll, in my 21 years of working with the Doña Ana sheriff’s department, we have not had this,” said Major Jon Day.

In the Texas race, Democratic challenger Michelle Vallejo has taken a hard line on border enforcement, shocking progressive allies in her campaign to unseat De La Cruz. A recent ad from Vallejo describes “chaos at the border” and urges bipartisan cooperation to deploy more Border Patrol agents and fight human trafficking cartels.

‘A responsibility to enforce the law’

In Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Ciscomani calls border enforcement his No. 1 priority. But he has distanced himself from former President Donald Trump’s sometimes caustic anti-immigrant rhetoric and avoided presidential campaign events in swing-state Arizona. Instead, Ciscomani tells an immigrant’s story — about his own arrival in the U.S. at age 11 from Hermosillo, Mexico. He received citizenship in 2006 and says he is determined to fix the border.

“We have a responsibility to enforce the law on the border, and we also are a community of immigrants — myself included — that came here to this country, and we’re seeking opportunity.”

Experts say voters near the border have tangible concerns about smugglers and contraband but know the benefits of authorized cross-border commerce and commuting.

“There is, I think, more of a nuanced view,” said Samara Klar, a pollster and professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy.

Border patrol arrests on the southwest border plunged to a 46-month low in July after Mexican authorities stepped up enforcement and President Joe Biden temporarily suspended asylum processing. But in New Mexico, where the decline has been less pronounced, surging migrant deaths prompted coordinated U.S. law enforcement raids in August on stash houses where smugglers hide migrants.

Vasquez, looking to be the first Democrat to win reelection in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District since 1978, has pitched legislation to improve detection of fentanyl coming across the border and to disrupt cartel recruitment of young Americans to ferry migrants to hiding places — quick trips that offer $1,100 — amid a scourge of addiction and proliferation of homeless encampments in cities along the Upper Rio Grande.

But he also has plans to improve conditions at migrant detention centers and offer permanent residency to immigrants who fill critical jobs in the U.S.

Republicans walk a tightrope

Vasquez ousted one-term Republican Congresswoman Yvette Herrell by only 1,350 votes in 2022 after Democrats redrew congressional maps to split a conservative oil-producing region into three districts.

Herrell, seeking the seat for the fourth consecutive time, has described an “absolute chaotic scene” at the border, and joined Republican House leaders in claiming that Democrats undermined U.S. elections by opposing a proof-of-citizenship requirement for new voters.

“It’s one or the other,” Herrell said at a rally in Las Cruces with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. “It’s our sovereignty over the open border.”

Noncitizens already are prohibited from voting in federal elections under penalties including prison or deportation, and Vasquez says the new requirement would make participation more difficult for legitimate voters, including Native Americans who couldn’t vote in New Mexico until 1948. Data from states indicate that voting by noncitizens happens — though not in high numbers.

Herrell’s rhetoric on immigration takes aim at voters in a district Trump lost by a roughly 6% margin in 2020.

“It’s a tightrope that she’s got to walk in trying to get any of the pro-Trump enthusiasm,” said Gabriel Sanchez, director of the University of New Mexico Center for Social Policy.

The district’s voting age population is 56% Hispanic — with centuries-old ties to Mexican and Spanish settlement and a smaller share of foreign-born residents than the national average.

“Republicans have been focused more and more on the Hispanic vote because they sense that they can make some inroads,” Albuquerque-based pollster Brian Sanderoff said. “And in fact the Hispanic vote in southeastern New Mexico is split. If you’re a Hispanic right now in Lea County (in New Mexico), you’re almost as likely to be voting Republican as Democrat.”

Recently retired Border Patrol agent Cesar Ramos of Alamogordo says he felt stymied by limitations on prosecuting undocumented immigrants, whose arrival he says contributes to higher prices for housing and essentials. He applauds Herrell’s tough talk.

“People here in Alamogordo are 110% behind legal immigration, but despise that there are criminal acts of smuggling, and just breaking into the U.S. with no legal documentation,” said Ramos, a registered Republican of Puerto Rican heritage.

In Sunland Park, a working-class community nestled between the border and a quarterhorse racetrack, Democratic Party orthodoxy is being tested, too.

Sunland Park native Luis Soto said migrants who cross the border impact his own efforts to open a cannabis dispensary in a former post office.

“I’m waiting for a fire marshal inspection and he’s busy saving people in the desert, rescuing bodies from the river, helping people out that are locked in a trailer,” said Soto, 43, the son of immigrants from Mexico in a family of lifelong Democrats. “We come from immigrants as well, but I think if the system was fixed, it would work out even better for them as well as for us.”

He is leaning toward Herrell, and associates Trump with better times.

“There was more money, more money rolling around,” Soto said. “Now there’s money, but it’s money to pay off bills.”

Incumbents try to find common ground

Vasquez in New Mexico and Ciscomani in Arizona — youthful by congressional standards at 40 and 42 — are near ideological opposites, but they’ve co-sponsored at least three bills to modernize temporary farmworker visas, spur local manufacturing and combat opioid trafficking. Those bills haven’t gotten a floor vote, while the Republican-led House approved Ciscomani’s initiative to deter deadly highway pursuits of migrant smugglers by law enforcement.

“Juan and I play basketball together, and he has become a good friend,” Vasquez said. “There are solutions on the border that we can do today that may not look like comprehensive immigration reform, but it’s biting off chunks and pieces.”

Ciscomani said he’s eager to collaborate when he can. His Democratic challenger in Arizona’s 6th district, Kirsten Engel, scoffs at that notion, saying Ciscomani publicly opposed a major bipartisan border bill in February, days after Trump told GOP lawmakers to abandon the deal.

The $20 billion bill would have overhauled the asylum system and given the president new powers to expel migrants when asylum claims become overwhelming.

“It was actually a pretty conservative bill and (Ciscomani) rejected it right after Trump told him to,” said Engel, a law professor and former state legislator. “This is the kind of solution that … a lot of voters here really supported.”

Engel lost in 2022 by about 5,000 votes. She hopes to win this time with a campaign against consumer price-gouging and for abortion rights. A constitutional amendment to ensure abortion rights on the statewide ballot could help turn out Democratic voters.

Engel supports the abortion amendment and opposes a ballot proposal to allow local police to make arrests near the border, which she calls an unfunded mandate. Ciscomani did not say how he would vote on the initiatives but says he opposes a national abortion ban.

At Sunland Park, an off-road Border Patrol vehicle kicks dust into the morning air. An unmarked bus arrives for detained migrants. Ardovino, from his deck, gazes at Mount Cristo Rey and wonders aloud what it will take to make this work for people coming in search of a better life — and for those already here.

“The whole desert is unfortunately littered with people’s lives,” he said.

___

Associated Press reporter Valerie Gonzalez in McAllen, Texas, contributed to this report.

Illegal crossings surge as feds weigh major asylum limits

LUKEVILLE, Ariz. (AP) — Hundreds of dates are written on concrete-filled steel columns erected along the U.S. border with Mexico to memorialize when the Border Patrol has repaired illicit openings...

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