It is apparent that Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry has captured the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination. After his caucus and primary wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Arizona and four other states, attention turns to how Mr. Kerry might defeat George W. Bush in November.

Massachusetts is a long way from the states that produced the only Democratic presidential winners in the last forty years: Texas (Lyndon Johnson 1964), Georgia (Jimmy Carter 1976) and Arkansas (Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996). And the last northern Democrat to get an absolute majority in a presidential election was Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.

And John Kerry is a liberal. Americans for Democratic Action give him a lifetime rating of 93, five points higher than Ted Kennedy.

So how does he win≠ Conventional wisdom would be to pick a southerner, as John F. Kennedy did in 1960 by tapping Lyndon Johnson to make a winning combination.

What about Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina≠ Bush won North Carolina in 2000, and that would be classic ticket balancing. However, Mr. Edwards opted out of defending his Senate seat this year, because, some believe, he figured he could not hold it.

Another popular scenario has Mr. Kerry picking Florida senator and former governor Bob Graham. But Mr. Graham did poorly as a campaigner in this year’s presidential race, and the president’s brother, Jeb Bush, won reelection in 2002 by 13 points after millions were spent to defeat him.

Mr. Kerry should consider that five incumbent southern Democrats senators have decided not to run for reelection – in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina – an indication that Democratic prospects in the South are sinking.

The South is Mr. Bush’s strength. In 2000, Mr. Bush beat an incumbent vice president and southerner by 12 per cent in Georgia, by 13 in North Carolina, 15 in Alabama, 16 in South Carolina, 17 in Mississippi and 21 in Texas. He even bested Mr. Gore in Gore’s home state of Tennessee and in Bill Clinton’s Arkansas.

So, instead of trying to fight it out on Mr. Bush’s ground, Mr. Kerry should adopt a Midwestern or Western strategy.

Consider that in 2000 Mr. Bush got 271 electoral votes, just one more than the minimum, but that now, because of reapportionment, the states he won in 2000 have seven more electoral votes today that they had then.

This means the Democrats must turn at least one of Mr. Bush’s states to Kerry to win.

One state that springs to mind is Ohio and its 20 electoral votes. Mr. Bush beat Mr. Gore there by only 3 1/2 points, and no Republican ever has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. But the GOP owns all the important Ohio statewide offices, so there is no obvious Ohioan for Mr. Kerry’s VP. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich is not an answer to any question a winning Democratic nominee would ask.

I think Mr. Kerry could find his LBJ in Arizona Governor Janet A. Napolitano.

In 1996 Clinton became the first Democrat to carry Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948. Mr. Bush beat Mr. Gore here by only six points, and in 2002, Napolitano won the governorship against a GOP trend that returned the Senate to the Republicans and even re-elected scandal-plagued GOP Corporation Commissioner Jim Irvin.

Arizona cannot be considered a reliable Republican state any more. That is why we will continue to see President Bush, Vice President Cheney and high profile Republican surrogates visiting us throughout the rest of the year.

If Mr. Kerry can hold all of Mr. Gore’s states and take Arizona’s 10 electoral votes as well, that single change in would put Mr. Kerry in the White House with 270 electors to Bush’s 268.

Putting Ms. Napolitano on the ticket benefits Kerry in many ways. She is a high-profile woman in a nation where more women vote than men. Her executive experience as governor complements Mr. Kerry’s legislative tenure.

She presents herself as a moderate and already has said she will not support tax hikes this year. As a former U.S. attorney and state attorney general, she can credibly talk the law and order talk on domestic security.

Of course she would have to resign as governor to run for vice president, turning the Governor’s Office over to Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer.

But that might not be as unattractive as it might appear.

If Kerry-Napolitano defeated Bush-Cheney, she would be vice president in January. And if the Bush-Cheney ticket were to win, she would be first in line to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006, her bankroll fattened by her national exposure.

Barry Goldwater (1964), Mo Udall (1976) Bruce Babbitt (1988) and John McCain (2000) all have come up short trying for the top job. Maybe the key for an Arizonan getting to the White House is by way of the second highest office in the land. —

Farrell Quinlan is a Phoenix business-organization executive and by his own description an inveterate political junkie.