Governor Napolitano has ordered state agencies to prepare for 2020, when, she says, more than 25 per cent of Arizonans will be older than 60. And, she said, by 2011, the first of the baby-boomer generation will reach the age of 65.

“We cannot wait for that day to arrive…” Ms. Napolitano said at a March 16 news conference at the Capitol. “We want to make sure as the next generation ages, and they have issues with health care, prescription drugs and transportation . . . that we are getting ahead of the big bubble that is yet to come.”

The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that Arizona has the third highest number of people over 65, and the fastest growing demographic is the 85-plus population.

The governor said senior citizens, from pioneer families to new residents, are an important part of the state.

“But for some of our state’s seniors, the challenges of aging are daunting and result in economic hardship, infirmity and isolation,” Ms. Napolitano said. “It is our responsibility to reach out to our elders who are struggling and provide them the same support their generations provided our nation in times of difficulty…”

The “steamroller” of old age is heading into the state, and it could flatten Arizona if policy makers don’t prepare for it, warns a report on aging trends and their ramifications.

As it grays relatively rapidly, Arizona must be prepared for significant effects on taxes, transportation, politics and especially on health care, states The Coming of Age, a study published in 2002 by Arizona State University and St. Luke’s Health Initiative.

On her first day in office, Ms. Napolitano kicked off a discount prescription drug program for Medicare eligible and disabled individuals. That program is now saving enrollees $100,000 a day, she said.

Ms. Napolitano has asked the Legislature this year for increased funding for home and community-based services for the elderly.

Sen. Pete Rios, D-23, who requested a $5.2 million appropriation in 2002 for elderly assistance programs in the 45th Legislature, said at the time the state was not prepared to deal with current health care needs of the elderly, let alone future needs. His request was turned down.

“We are basically sticking our head in the sand and pretending this isn’t happening,” he said.

Long-Term Care

Ms. Napolitano also appointed a work group of community leaders to study how to attract more qualified people to provide long-term care and other services to the elderly.

The group chaired by Kathleen Pagels, executive director of the Arizona Health Care Association, and Dick White of Arizona Interfaith Network is vice-chair.

Four per cent of people covered by the state’s Medicaid program, AHCCCS, are in long-term care, accounting for 27 per cent of AHCCCS’s total expenditures, according to Interfaith Network. And between 50 per cent and 100 per cent turnover rates among long-term care workers are not uncommon.

Long-term care for low-income elderly and disabled residents cost Arizona $400 million in 2000, according to the ASU-St. Luke’s study.

Ms. Napolitano will host a Governor’s Conference on Aging in May, and state agencies are to report by Sept. 30 how they can prepare to meet the needs of the aging population over the next five to seven years.

Boomers Have Fewer Kids To Depend On

Baby boomers, people born between 1946 and 1964, will have significant — even complicating — influences on the state as it becomes more elderly in the next 50 years, the ASU-St. Luke’s report says.

“When a steamroller is coming down the road, you have three choices: Get out of the way, run to stay ahead of it, or lie down and get your clothes pressed,” wrote John Hall, a professor of public affairs at ASU and project director for the study.

Baby boomers are driving the steamroller.

One in four Arizonans (1,325,000 people) was a baby boomer, 2002 population studies show. The eldest boomers will be eligible for Social Security in four years and, unlike today’s seniors, boomers will have half as many children to depend on in old age.

Politically, things “could get brutal,” Mr. Hall told a citizen activist group when the study was released. According to the study, professionals in the aging field say inadequate attention from top leaders, insufficient funds and fragmented programs have put Arizona “on a collision course with aging.”

Mr. Hall said elected officials are well aware of senior citizens’ political clout.

While the state does not track voting percentages by age groups, the national average for turnout among registered voters 65 and older is 60 per cent. That would equate to nearly 414,000 votes, or one-third of all votes cast in the 2002 general election in Arizona.

“Only by engaging people in direct conversations on aging is there any hope of overcoming the prominence of interest-group-driven politics,” the report states.

Fewer Workers, More Elderly

“Fewer and fewer Arizona workers will pay taxes to support the young and the old,” the study concludes.

Mr. Hall said seniors currently pay more in taxes than is needed to cover the costs of their care. But, says the ASU-St. Luke’s report, that is going to change.

With longer lives, thanks to health care technology, and the growing population of people 85 and older, “More and more of the ‘oldest old’ will mean mushrooming costs for elder care,” the study states.

Mr. Hall said, “Some put faith in market choices than in government decisions, while others would reverse the two. Decisions about health, savings, insurance and investments in infrastructure all add up.”

While five workers supported each Social Security recipient in Arizona in 1960, the ratio was down to 3.4 workers less than 18 months ago and expected to dip to 2.1 workers per Social Security recipient by 2040, the report says.

Mr. Hall said elected officials are aware of the aging of Arizona, but his report said some public policy veterans might explain away a disinterest in the trend as part of the state’s economic tradition — “sustained growth of the retirement-age population is a blessing.”

While Arizonans over 65 years old annually spend more than $2 billion, many healthy seniors have outlived their savings and have returned to work to make ends meet.

The study reported rural counties have the highest proportion of residents over age 65. Sun City residents have the oldest median age at 73.2, while Gilbert is the state’s youngest city, with a median age of 30.1.

Nationally, Hispanic seniors grew by 67 per cent between 1990-2000, compared to 9 per cent increase among non-Hispanic white elderly. The aged in Arizona’s future will include more Hispanics, the report says. —