Members of Governor Napolitano’s Military Affairs Commission are optimistic that Arizona’s installations won’t be listed among base closures to be recommended May 13.

Commission members and others closely involved in efforts to keep Arizona’s military facilities off the Pentagon’s chopping block said the list was being tightly guarded and would not be known until Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld’s recommendations go to the independent Base Realignment and Closure Commission. Its final report must go to President Bush by Sept. 8.

“I can tell you where we have been for decades in this state and why we think we’re in good shape,” said Lisa Atkins, co-chair of the commission Napolitano appointed last year. “Arizona has had a very strong partnership with the Department of Defense over the years” _ one that she said has served as a model for other states.

At the same time, with Arizona’s military facilities providing a direct and indirect total economic impact of more than $5.6 billion a year, if one makes the closure list officials are geared to begin an immediate review and prove why information the Pentagon used may be incorrect, Ms. Atkins said.

“The indications that we’ve had at least to date … are all pretty positive,” said Atkins’ co-chair, retired Col. Thomas Finnegan.

Arizona’s facilities include the Army’s Fort Huachuca in Sierra Vista; Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson and Luke Air Force Base in Glendale, Marine Corps Air Station Yuma and the Army Yuma Proving Ground _ along with three major training and testing ranges or grounds.

A study of data from 2000, which came up with the $5.6 billion figure, showed the installations had almost 46,000 active duty, reserve, rotational, military student and civilian employees; as many as 39,000 other employees worked for companies providing goods and services for the installations, Atkins said.

For decades, members of the state’s congressional delegation, along with governors, legislators, local officials and governments have been instrumental in forging and maintaining close working relationships with their local installations and facilities, Ms. Atkins said.

Arizona first passed legislation in 1978 to benefit its military installations, requiring that the viability of military missions be preserved, Ms. Atkins said.

Similarly more than a dozen local communities have tight bonds with the facilities they host.

“There are several cities that surround Luke Air Force Base that are all very active in the relationship,” Ms. Atkins said.

She added that the Department of Defense has found “the assets, the weather, the ability to train, the natural resources in Arizona conducive to performing and fulfilling their missions.”

Meanwhile, city officials around Arizona wait for word on any recommended base closures.

“People are cautiously optimistic here, but we haven’t heard anything really that lets us form an opinion,” said Marie Hansen, a spokeswoman for Sierra Vista Mayor Thomas Hessler, a commission member.

Hansen added that despite a meeting Tuesday with Napolitano, “I think everybody really is in the dark.”

“We’re hopeful, and keep a positive view,” said Kevin Tenell, director of public and legislative affairs for the Yuma County Board of Supervisors.

He said a closure would impact the community substantially.

“The top three industries in our community, in no specific order, are agriculture, tourism _ snowbird season _ and the military,” Mr. Tenell said. “You take any one of those three away, we would be in an interesting situation.”

Goodyear Mayor James Cavanaugh, another commission member, said “there would be a dramatic impact” if Luke were to close, including on some 80,000 to 100,000 military retirees in the Phoenix area for whom only Luke offers services such as a commissary.

Luke’s impact alone has been estimated at about $1.5 billion, Mr. Cavanaugh added.