The Arizona Capitol Times traveled this route in its June 3 issue. [GOP Researcher Says His Own Survey Shows He Could Soundly Defeat Napolitano]

In Arizona the “Holy Grail” of political polling has been emanating primarily from one source, pollster Earl de Berg and his Rocky Mountain polls. These polls are usually reported verbatim in the media without any objective scrutiny whatsoever. However, when research is provided by other credible sources that may not agree a predetermined story line or with the Rocky Mountain poll, it is not uncommon for a reporter to ask pollster Earl de Berg or ASU’s Bruce Merrill to aid in discrediting any opposing viewpoint.

“Governors ratings up — Legislature ratings down” was the headline in de Berg’s April 2005 Rocky Mountain Poll press release. The poll claims that Democrat Governor Napolitano’s job approval ratings are at a historic high of 57 percent. That same polling data claims the Republican dominated Legislature has a lowly job approval rating of 27 percent.

The House and Senate passed important legislation this session. The governor honed her liberal fingernails and scratched more bills than any other governor in the state’s history. What’s more, Ms. Napolitano maneuvered to defang the people’s initiative, Proposition 200. Despite the governor’s liberal record and serial vetoing of the people’s will, the Holy Grail of political polling (Rocky Mountain) declares that voilá, Governor Napolitano is queen of the governing court. How can any thinking person not question these alleged facts≠

So how does Mr. de Berg’s Rocky Mountain poll come up with these ostensibly unchallenged positive numbers for the Democrat governor and supposedly negative numbers for the Republican dominated Legislature≠

Simple — just ask one poorly worded question to anyone willing to pick up a ringing telephone and talk to an anonymous caller.

So what is the Rocky Mountain poll’s surreptitious “job approval” question, the Holy Grail question, if you will, designed to provide divine intervention for select Arizona politicians≠ What is that powerful single question asked to “adults” over the telephone by the Rocky Mountain telephone operators≠

“Next, I’d like to read you the names of some pubic officials. As I read each one please just tell me if you think the job they are doing in office is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor.”

Name No. 1 — Governor Janet Napolitano

Name No. 2 — Arizona State Legislature

The question is fashioned to compare a single governor to the entire body of a legislature. Since when are the multiple voices, opinions and political parties in the Arizona State Legislature considered a single entity≠ Yet the Rocky Mountain poll presents the entire Legislature as an all-in-one single “public official.” This is akin to comparing apples to oranges. In the real world of research comparing apples to oranges, for the most part, renders a poll meaningless.

Besides, when was the last time you answered a telemarketer’s call≠ Most Fortune 500 brand marketers discontinued telephone polling years ago.

It certainly appears that the Holy Grail of Arizona political polls, the Rocky Mountain poll is, well, full of holes.

The primary objective of the “Candidate Brand DNA” study is to go beyond one-dimensional job approval tracking polls, to understand what Arizona voters are truly feeling. In my opinion, political job approval tracking polls are more reflective of governor’s public relations propaganda rather than voters’ actual thoughts.

The research that I provided to the Arizona Capitol Times was not a “one-dimensional” job approval poll, as the story indicates. The “Candidate DNA™” research is a multi-dimensional study comparing a Republican conservative candidate against left-leaning Democrat Governor Napolitano. For the purposes of collecting data on a Republican, I used myself as the “guinea-pig” or the experimental subject in this study. No one else volunteered.

Before the study was launched, I was warned about the potential for being attacked by political opposition, that is, if the outcome did not agree with the Democrat’s “one-dimensional” job approval polls. To inoculate myself from attack, I took precautionary measures to assure the “Candidate DNA™ research was bullet-proof. I had an independent national credit reporting company in New York provide and the recruit the sample and an independent Scottsdale data processing company provide the data analysis used in the reporting. Furthermore, more than one-half of all participants said they are willing to speak with the media regarding their part in the study. The expected critics showed up right on time. At the top of the list of expected critics were the Democrat’s favorite pollsters, Earl de Berg ASU’s Bruce Merrill.

Here are the key insights from the “Candidate DNA™” research that Arizona Capitol Times and the pollsters did not want you to know:

Border Control:

In 2005-2006 the most important political issue will be border control. The most significant difference between the Republican and Democrat candidates was the issue of border control and support of the Minuteman Project. The Republican candidate prevailed on this issue by the widest margin of any issue in this study.

Family Values:

Based on the results of this study family values is a key issue. Family Values include items that directly affect family life such as education, health care, personal income, etc. Arizona has traditionally rated low on family value issues in comparison to other states. Respondents perceive the Republican candidate as significantly stronger in delivering important family values.

2nd Amendment — NRA And Gay-Lesbian Advocacy:

9 of 10 Arizonans support NRA backed 2nd Amendment rights — the Republican candidate is rated significantly higher. Democrat Governor Napolitano is rated significantly higher in being perceived as a strong advocate for gays and lesbians.

Additional key findings in this study indicate:

1. The governor’s job approval ratings are one-dimensional, for the most part inaccurate and do not reflect the genuine feelings of registered

Arizona voters.

2. Republican challengers have retreated needlessly.

3. The governor has been unsuccessful in “triangulating” Arizona’s important issues.

4. The mainstream media seems to be reflecting the propaganda put forth by the Governors Office and not the authentic views of the majority of Arizonans.

In the final analysis, the study indicates that 37 percent of 2002 Napolitano voters would abandon her if the election for Arizona governor were held today.

I am not a candidate for any office. I am just an ordinary Arizonan that believes the greatest gift you can provide your children with is to leave the world in a better state than when you entered it. Because of the cowardly terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the subsequent actions or inactions of some in government, including Ms. Napolitano, the concept of a better state for our children is in doubt. We should all be concerned.

John Hoeppner, Cave Creek