In 2004 strategists for George W. Bush sought approval from “NASCAR dads” and “security moms.” Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean scored high with ‘campus kids’ but drew heavy criticism for seeking support from “guys with Confederate stickers in their pickup trucks.”

Phoenix resident José Esparza is also part of an emerging subgroup that will likely be courted by strategists — the Republican-voting Latino.

Attracted to GOP ideals and feeling politically stranded, Mr. Esparza, 31, formed the Arizona Latino Republican Association three years ago with his sister, Blanca, and a friend, Tempe City Council candidate and former 2004 District 17 Senate candidate Jesse Hernandez. At their first major event, manning a booth at a Cinco de Mayo parade, he says the crowd received them with shock and jeers. Today the organization has about 200 members and in reward for his efforts, Mr. Esparza was sponsored by Arizona Sen. John McCain to serve as an Arizona delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York.

“We started it to give them (Latino conservatives) an opportunity to participate in the political process, create a network for them and give them the ability to open some doors,” says Mr. Esparza, who grew up in the small mining town of Miami, Arizona, where his father served as vice-mayor. “It’s an organization for anyone who wants to foster the mission of our group: to go into the Latino community and foster the principles of the Republican Party.”

Unfortunately, says Mr. Esparza, who performs government relations duties for Southwest Gas, these values were previously not “disseminated properly” into the Hispanic community. He views the Republican platform of “family values, passion for the entrepreneurial spirit and having less taxation,” as well as an aversion to same-sex marriages and abortion, a “natural fit” for Hispanics.

“The culture values strong family morals,” says Mr. Esparza, the grandson of a one-time illegal immigrant who was deported. “They’re very independent. They don’t want to depend on the government. They want to depend on their own two hands and their own family.”

Increasing Shift To GOP, Registering As Independents

Once considered a dependable Democratic voting block, Hispanics, particularly second and third generation, have begun to switch allegiance to the GOP and to register as independents in increasing numbers.

According to Earl de Berge, owner and research director of the Behavior Research Center, a polling organization that closely monitors the Hispanic community, more and more of the state’s Latino electorate is voting Republican primarily for economic reasons.

“They are moving up in socio-economic status, getting higher degrees of education and becoming more financially successful,” Mr. de Berge said. “There is an associated trend of Republicanism in each of those characteristics. So it may not have a damn thing to do with current politics and may have to do with the reality that as people become more affluent and successful in business they tend to be more Republican, whether they’re Latino or Greek.”

Religion also seems to be a factor in this trend. Contrary to public belief, Hispanics who define themselves as Catholic are 20 percent more likely to be Democrats, while Hispanics who state their religious preference as Christian are twice as likely to vote Republican, data collected by the Behavior Research Center indicates.

Evident in Mexico and Latin America, this growing shift from community-orientated Catholicism to individual fundamentalist Christianity is also affecting first generation immigrants who have left their homelands, says Mr. de Berge. Compounded with poor economic conditions in these areas, this phenomenon is helping to create a particularly desperate and driven type of immigrant who quickly learns English and succeeds.

“One of the things we forget is that it is a terribly brave and risky thing,” says Mr. de Berge. “The kind of person that does that has initiative and is motivated; wants to improve themselves and better their life. They’re not people sitting under a tree someplace. You have got to have brass balls.”

Arizona Long Known For Swing Voting

To further complicate the efforts of political strategists, Arizona has a strong tendency toward swing voting. Mr. Esparza refers to this category as “free agents” and the Hispanic electorate is no exception to the rule. Both President Bush and former President Bill Clinton scored well with Arizona Latino voters. This indicates that while Hispanics may have been attracted to the tough war stance of the Bush administration, while not necessarily offering a full endorsement of conservative stances on other issues, says Mr. de Berge.

“Where they may be very conservative and patriotic on war issues, they may be quite different on issues of immigration and issues of language and social services and so on,” says Mr. de Berge. “I don’t think anybody right now really has a strong handle on that. We’re looking at that more and more, but it is not safe to say because they’re Republicans they’re conservative.”

In Arizona there is also a very high percentage of registered independent voters. Information from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office confirms a full quarter of Arizona’s registered 2,681,242 voters are independent.

Despite the unpredictability of Arizona’s electorate, there is little doubt that the Republican Party is eroding the Democrats’ numerical superiority among Latinos.

In 1990, according to the Behavioral Research Center, 82 percent of Latinos who are and citizens who live full-time in Arizona defined themselves as Democrats and 12 percent considered themselves Republicans; about a 7-to-one ratio. By 2003, the ratio had fallen to a roughly a 2-to-one Democratic advantage.

Mr. Esparza claims these figures are the results of intense outreach efforts by the state and national Republican Party and he strongly objects to notions that the GOP is “pandering to Mexicans.”

“We’re just not a homogeneous group who all thinks the same,” says Mr. Esparza. “We have differing opinion, different lifestyles and different life experiences. The Republican Party isn’t changing to allow Latinos to fit in. The Republican Party is reaching out and letting the Latino community know what it stands for.”

Failures Of GOP At Legislative Level

There is little evidence in terms of elected state officials to attest to Mr. Esparza’s described natural fit between GOP ideology and Latinos. Currently, there are no Latino Republicans in either the House or Senate. In contrast, five of the 12 Democrats in the Senate are Hispanics, including the leadership positions held by Minority Leader Linda Aguirre, D-16, and Minority Whip Richard Miranda, D-13. In the House, Democrats have 11 Hispanic representatives and Linda Lopez, D-29, and Pete Rios, D-23 hold two of three House Democratic leadership positions.

These statistics do little to dissuade the cheerful Mr. Esparza. He takes pride in the fact that several Latino Republicans have run in the last elections, although unsuccessfully, for state and local positions.

“I am confident as time goes on and more and more Latinos become politically active you will start to see more Latino Republicans run for office and you will see them supported by the state party, the national party and you will start to see Latino Republicans elected as state representatives and senators.”

He is inspired by the elections of Ken Salazar, a Democrat from Colorado, and Mel Martinez, a Republican from Florida, to the U.S. Senate
and to the appointment of Alberto Gonzales as U.S. attorney general, but he is most excited about the contributions Hispanics made to the election of President George W. Bush.

Nationally, it is also estimated that 40 percent to 44 percent of Hispanics voted Republican in the 2004 presidential election, a figure so alarming that five of the 18 members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, an all-Democrat group of Hispanic congressmen, recently wrote DNC officials to convey their frustration.

“This disappointment stems not only from this past election, but what we have seen to be a continuing pattern of neglect of the Hispanic electorate over the last decade by the Democratic Party,” reported The Hill, a newspaper that covers the U.S. Congress.

How To Win

Getting and holding the Republican Latino vote in Arizona will be no easy task, but Mr. Esparza is ready for the challenge. He says there is no substitute for the grass-roots legwork of “pounding signs and knocking on doors.”

No longer in awe of the civil rights achievements of Democrat John F. Kennedy, today’s Latino voter is more likely to politically “play free-agent,” making continuous outreach essential, says Mr. Esparza. Many are also conservatives yet “to come out of the closet,” he says.

“The Republican Party has dedicated itself to going into the Latino communities each and every day. On election years and off election years, it doesn’t matter. We are not taking any vote for granted. We are not taking Latinos for granted. Latinos are saying, ‘You know what≠ There’s not only one party out there, there’s two, I’m going to be a free agent, and I’m going to go to the party that moves my political ideology forward.”

Mr. Esparza’s assessment that political growth and survival lies in maintaining outreach into the Latino community echoes the view of José Cárdenas, host of “Horizonte”, a KAET television show that covers issues of interest to Hispanics.

“My own sense is that the political parties need to pay constant attention to the Hispanic voting demographic rather than just every time an election time rolls around,” says Mr. Cárdenas, also a lawyer with the local firm Lewis and Roca. “Voter outreach and education will be key.”

Mr. de Berge of the Behavior Research Center says political parties need to be aware of the changing nature of the voting Hispanic demographic, one that is often mistaken as being poor due to the fact that most economic indexes tend to include illegal immigrants and temporary workers. He advises parties to be able to “deliver messages to people sitting on the fence.

“It’s a growing and changing population. It’s moving up in socioeconomic status rapidly. Income is improving; women are entering the work force in tremendous numbers having a dramatic impact on family income.”

Population Changes

Changing demographics in Arizona will also be a major factor in future elections. As of 2003, the Arizona Department of Health Services counted Latinos as making up 25 percent of the state’s population. The year also marked the first time that Latinos surpassed whites in Arizona not only in birth rate, but also in actual births, 39,000 to 38,000, respectively.

Some population projections estimate that Latinos will become the majority of Arizona’s population as early as 2025. Approval from Hispanic voters will be not only desired, says experts, but critical in determining victories.

“The major political parties have been and will continue to woo the Hispanic vote because of the increasing size of the Hispanic population,” says Mr. Cárdenas. “In the relatively near future, Arizona will have a majority Hispanic population; the parties have no choice but to pay attention to the Hispanic voter.”

Regardless of party affiliation, Mr. Esparza relishes the increased political attention on Latinos, viewing it as a sign of collective success and assimilation similar to strides made by previous German and Irish immigrants.

“It’s extremely pleasing to me that both parties are looking at public policy and how it will affect each minority, how will it affect Americans: Mexican-Americans, African-Americans. I think it puts Latinos in a good position.” —