An impending large victory for John McCain in his home state this November will dissuade Democrats and other Barack Obama voters from casting ballots in Arizona, which will clear the way for more conservative state lawmakers to be elected, said one Republican legislative candidate who is being targeted in the upcoming election.
Jeff Dial, a Republican candidate in District 20, estimated McCain will win Arizona by at least 15 points.
“They know that McCain is going to win huge in Arizona,” he said. “Fifteen percent of Democrat (voters) probably won’t turn out.”
That lack of voter turnout for Democrats, combined with the down-ticket effect McCain will have on other Republican candidates, equals success for the Republican Party in this year’s legislative elections, said Dial.
Fellow Republican John McComish, who is seeking re-election to the House, said the political weather has changed since the last election.
“Two years ago, the national winds were blowing their way,” McComish said of Democrats. “I just don’t see those winds blowing right now. It will be impossible for them to add to (their 2006 success).”
While District 20, which includes Ahwatukee and parts of Tempe and Chandler, hasn’t traditionally been a battleground district, the Republican registration advantage has narrowed, which makes it a race to watch on Nov. 4.
When McComish was first elected to the Legislature in 2004, Republicans held a 16.6-percentage-point edge on Democrats. In the four years since, though, the number of registered Republicans has decreased by nearly 4,000 voters, while Democrats have increased their ranks by about 1,600.
There are only 10,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the district, giving the GOP an 11-point advantage at the polls.
But with Republicans still leading the registration count, McComish said he and Dial have an advantage over Democrat Rae Waters.
“Of course, we can’t rest on our laurels, as I, of all people, know,” McComish said, referring to his narrow 135-vote victory over Frank Schmuck in the Sept. 2 primary.
In the end, McComish said neither Republican nor Democrat voters will turn the tide in the election.
“I think the race will be won or lost based on which way the independent (voters) go,” he said.
That’s one area where Waters feels she has an advantage over her Republican opponents — and especially over Dial, who is the more conservative of the two.
“People want what’s best for their families, best for their kids, and I don’t see that in the very conservative (platform),” she said.
Waters is a self-described moderate Democrat who is “pretty fiscally conservative” and willing to examine problems thoroughly before deciding how best to solve them. That, she said, is in stark contrast to how some legislators operate.
“It’s about looking at the issue and finding the best solution,” she said. “It’s not about the rhetoric or the dogma.”
Waters is running her first campaign for the Legislature, but she’s been elected by area voters three times to serve on the Kyrene School District governing board and spent a year as president of the board.
Education issues are important statewide, but political analysts say they are of even more importance in District 20 because parents are highly involved in the Kyrene district. Waters believes that voter familiarity and her record of advocating for public education will be a boon to her campaign.
“I think we have a lot of people in this state who run on an education platform, but don’t have any education experience,” she said.
But experience on the school board may hinder her campaign, too, said Dial. In 2006, more than 7,000 people signed a petition to recall Waters from her school board post. Though she won the special election, 47 percent of voters opposed her.
That fall, Waters again won re-election to the school board, but Dial said there is still lingering resentment among voters.
“I’ve had people say they’re telling their friends not to vote for her,” he said.