One of Arizona's leading pollsters said his most recent statewide survey shows Sen. John McCain holds a narrow two-point advantage over his Democratic challenger Barack Obama.

McCain's lead, however, was within the margin of error, which puts his home state in play with a week left before the election, said Bruce Merrill, a professor at Arizona State University who conducted the Cronkite/Eight poll between Oct. 23-26.

Of the 1,019 registered voters who took part in the survey, 46 percent said they support McCain, while 44 percent indicated support for Obama. It showed McCain's lead dwindling compared to past Cronkite/Eight polls conducted in August and September, when McCain held leads of 10-percent and 7-percent, respectively.

The remaining respondents split among Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney, independent Ralph Nader and "undecided."

The vast majority of those surveyed indicated they were firmly committed to a candidate and "won't change their mind before Election Day," Merrill said. Ninety-three percent of McCain supporters characterized their support as "very strong," as did 94 percent of Obama supporters.

While the survey's findings show the state is within reach for either candidate, 62 percent said they believe Obama will win the presidency. That compares to 20 percent who believe McCain will win.

Merrill said, though, that the most shocking poll result was that even most McCain supporters believe the senator's presidential campaign will fall short, as 33 percent of Republican respondents said they believe McCain would win.

Merrill, speaking at a luncheon hours before the poll results were officially released, explained that part was so surprising that he had his staff triple-check it for accuracy.

The poll also found that by a two-to-one margin the voters believed McCain is running a more negative campaign than his Democratic competitor.

The poll sample was 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 29 percent independent. Fifty-eight percent of respondents were in Maricopa County, while 17 percent were in Pima County. The remaining 25 percent were from Arizona's 13 other counties.

Women made up 53 percent of the survey pool and men accounted for 47 percent.

Respondents were asked a series of questions unrelated to the presidential race. For instance, pollsters questioned Maricopa County residents, finding that 56 percent of those surveyed supported Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, compared to 35 percent that registered support for Democratic challenger Dan Saban.

Andrew Thomas, Maricopa County attorney, also held a considerable lead over Democrat Tim Nelson, boasting an advantage of 42 percent to 35 percent. However, 21 percent said they were undecided. Two percent of those surveyed indicated they support Libertarian Michael Kielsky.