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What's next for John McCain?

Arizona Capitol Reports Staff//November 6, 2008//[read_meter]

What's next for John McCain?

Arizona Capitol Reports Staff//November 6, 2008//[read_meter]

WASHINGTON – In the hours after losing the presidency in a landslide, John McCain began considering a political future that includes at least two more years as one of the most prominent senators in the nation.

But while McCain might return to the Senate to a hero's welcome, the Arizona senator may struggle to find a place in a revamped Republican Party as blaming fingers start pointing in his direction.

Even before McCain left the campaign trail for some much-needed vacation, the Republican was holding discussions with senior aides about what role he will play in the Senate now that his national ambitions have come to an apparent end. The Associated Press reported McCain and his wife Cindy drove to a Starbucks for coffee the morning after the election, before heading to their ranch in Sedona.

Democrats said they hoped for a return of what many called the "old McCain," who worked across party lines with liberals like Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy. But McCain's relations with conservatives in his own party may be more problematic for the self-styled maverick as those on the right look for a scapegoat to explain losses in the House and Senate, along with the White House.

As Congress prepares to return for a special session later this month to deal with a second economic-stimulus package, among other issues, GOP colleagues will welcome McCain back to Washington with open arms. Still, he faces an uncertain future as the GOP begins its slow climb back to power.

Though McCain offered a gracious concession speech at the Arizona Biltmore Resort and Spa, congratulating President-elect Barack Obama on what amounted to a modern-day landslide victory, the campaign post-mortems and back-biting began even before the polls closed. Internal rivalries between top aides and an increasingly bitter feud between aides loyal to McCain and those loyal to vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin have splashed across newspapers around the country as virtually every Republican not affiliated with the campaign is quick to point out its many flaws.

In recent days, Palin herself has become the symbol of McCain's flawed campaign, as even top Republicans wonder why the Arizona senator plucked a little-known and ill-equipped Alaska governor from obscurity. Questions about Palin's readiness to serve, her lack of discipline on the campaign trail and her refusal to take advice from McCain advisers were compounded by revelations about the true cost of Palin's wardrobe, bought and paid for by the Republican National Committee.

But McCain did choose Palin, not only underscoring his need to shore up the conservative base in the presidential election but also recalling McCain's own problems with conservative leaders and voters across the country. He has never been the best-loved figure among conservatives, winning his party's nomination in spite of his efforts to pass unpopular campaign finance and immigration reform. Now, having lost, some conservatives will point to McCain as evidence of the sort of candidate not to nominate in the future.

Beyond his position in the party, McCain may even have a difficult time remaining in the Senate. Speculation in Washington is that, after winning his home state by just nine points, McCain is almost certain to face a top-tier challenger should he run for re-election in 2010.

One name dominates Democratic wish lists for that year: Gov. Janet Napolitano has long been coveted as the perfect candidate to take on McCain. In fact, two independent polls over the last year have shown Napolitano leading McCain in a hypothetical matchup. The latest, a Research 2000 poll taken for the liberal Web site DailyKos, showed Napolitano leading by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin.

Then again, so soon after a grueling presidential contest, thoughts of re-election aren't on McCain's mind yet, according to top advisers. One adviser close to McCain said he has no idea whether McCain would run again.

Though McCain has not faced a difficult re-election fight before, the influx of new voters and Democrats' recent success in the state could give the Republican a more difficult landscape than that to which he is accustomed.

And fresh off a presidential campaign in which he raised more than $368 million, McCain will have to start his Senate campaign virtually from scratch. The most recent Federal Election Commission reports showed McCain's Senate campaign coffers held just under $14,000.

But whether Napolitano will run is a different question. Strategists in Washington clearly want her to mount a bid, though some suggest she would prefer a position in Obama's administration.

A source in the Obama campaign cautioned not to read anything into Obama tapping Napolitano for the transition committee. 

Regardless of his re-election prospects, McCain faces an uncertain future with colleagues in Washington. Even before the Nov. 4 election, prominent congressional Republicans began fretting that McCain's campaign might affect their chances and contribute to what looked like an impending Democratic wave.

"There's no question the top of the ticket is affecting our Senate races and it's making it a lot more difficult," Republican Senate campaign chief John Ensign said on MSNBC just days before the election. "We certainly won't do well if he doesn't," National Republican Congressional Committee chair Tom Cole added of McCain.

Some conservatives, who have never been comfortable with McCain's commitment to their causes, may see his loss as an opportunity to marginalize him and focus instead on finding a new leader for the party. Though Republicans generally have revered their nominees after Election Day — even those who lose — that may not be the case this year.

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