Arizona Capitol Reports Staff//January 19, 2009//[read_meter]
Arizona Capitol Reports Staff//January 19, 2009//[read_meter]
Republicans cleaned up in November's legislative elections, taking back three of the seats they lost in 2006 and surprising most observers in the process. Democrats, meanwhile, saw their much-hyped plan to take a majority in at least one of the chambers go up in flames.
The campaign strategies used by the state parties and the results on Nov. 4 were a study in contrasts. So is the aftermath.
And now, as the grassroots faithful on each side gear up to choose state party leaders later this week, it's the leader of the Arizona Republican Party who is facing a stiff challenge in his re-election bid, while the man in charge of the Democratic Party is running unopposed and is all but sure to remain chairman after Democrats vote on Jan. 24.
"I think the reason there's no contest at the chairman level is that, while there's consensus we can learn from (2008)…we're still within striking distance of doing something in the (races for the) Legislature in 2010," said Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens.
Democrats in Arizona were able to pick up a fifth congressional seat, breaking a 4-4 tie with Republicans in that arena after Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Sydney Hay in the First Congressional District formerly held by Republican Rick Renzi. And President-elect Barack Obama came within 9 points of victory in John McCain's home state.
But street-level Democrats are upset with party leadership after the state party squandered a huge fundraising advantage by pursuing an aggressive plan to spread campaign money across a large number of Republican-leaning districts, rather than focusing the bulk of resources on races that were statistically within reach.
The result of the statewide strategy implemented by Democrats was that Republicans earned more seats in the Legislature despite raising far fewer dollars during the election cycle. The state Democratic Party raised nearly $4.1 million, while the state GOP raised $710,030.
"I have not spoken to a single person who wasn't affiliated with the state party campaign who's happy with what happened. A lot of people blame Don Bivens and Maria Weeg and wonder who is being held responsible," said Todd Landfried, who hosts a weekly show on a Phoenix liberal talk radio station.
Weeg, the state party's executive director, received most of the blame for the poor legislative showing in November because she headed up the party's campaign strategy and had all but guaranteed Democrats would take control of at least one chamber of the Legislature.
Landfried, a former executive director of the Maricopa County Democratic Party, said keeping Weeg could spell trouble for Bivens down the road.
"I think Don's in for a hard time if she doesn't (get replaced)," he said.
But Bivens rejects the criticism heaped on Weeg by party activists and said he has no intention of replacing her.
"Anybody who thinks it's one person's responsibility is pretty naïve," he said. "That's why it's called a coordinated campaign."
Rep. Phil Lopes, a Tucson Democrat, is among those displeased with the state party's work in the 2008 elections. He said party leaders in charge of the statewide campaign effort dropped the ball in what should have been a very good year for legislative Democrats in Arizona.
"I am disappointed and angry," he said, noting that successful campaigns need good candidates, lots of money and a good strategy. "We had outstanding candidates. We had a ton of money. Where's the strategy? That appears to be what was lacking."
Bivens, though, said the party was successful overall during the election. Democrats now hold five of Arizona's eight Congressional seats and two of the five Corporation Commission seats. Additionally, the party out-raised and out-registered Republicans in the state.
While much of the party's internal post-mortem on the election is still ongoing, Bivens said Democratic legislative candidates fell victim to the long coattails of presidential candidate John McCain and overwhelming voter response to Proposition 102, the ballot measure that banned gay marriage in the state. A state record 2.2 million voters – roughly 92 percent of the people who cast ballots – checked either the "yes" or "no" box on Prop. 102 last year.
Both of those factors likely resulted in more conservative-leaning voters supporting Republicans further down the ticket.
Lopes, though, said that's just an excuse.
"I find that less than compelling, because we know about that stuff going in," he said.
Democrat legislative candidates ultimately fared poorly in terms of the overall number of seats won or lost; the GOP boosted its majority by adding two more seats in the House and another in the Senate. But the margin of loss in many districts, even some in which Republicans hold a solid advantage in voter registrations, was not as pronounced as in previous years.
Take, for instance, the House race in District 21, which includes Queen Creek and parts of Chandler and Gilbert. Phil Hettmansperger lost to GOP incumbent Warde Nichols by fewer than 2,000 votes – about 1 percent of all the votes cast – despite Republicans holding a 15-percentage-point registration advantage over Democrats.
And in the District 26 Senate race, Republican Al Melvin needed every bit of the 7-point GOP registration advantage in the Tucson-area district, edging Democrat Cheryl Cage by 2 percent of the vote.
Even in Mesa's District 18, one of the most staunchly Republican districts in the state, the Democratic House candidate cut through the GOP advantage, turning a 15-point spread into a 5-percent loss.
The lesson Democrats can take from this, Bivens said, is that districts matter. Democrats have an extra hurdle at the legislative level, given the lopsided nature of many districts, and it is much more difficult to overcome the steep registration disadvantages present in many of the legislative districts, he said.
But critics say the party failed to adequately help candidates who had a solid chance of victory by additionally targeting a set of districts considered Republican strongholds. The party, in essence, overreached.
Jackie Thrasher, who won a House seat in 2006 by knocking off a veteran Republican, lost her seat in 2008 to the same Republican, Doug Quelland.
"Some areas just didn't get as much attention as they may have needed," Thrasher said. "They put a lot of money in places where maybe they couldn't win and then didn't protect some other districts."
Others view the effectiveness of a party chairman as more than just wins and losses. Put simply, it's about money. And Bivens is likely to return as chairman because he has the ability to raise the kind of money needed for Democrats to compete in a Republican state in 2010.
The next election cycle will be especially important, as Democrats not only fight for legislative seats, but also for all statewide offices, all of the state's congressional seats and McCain's U.S. Senate seat.
"(The chairman is) a person who has to raise lots of money, but with the economy the way it is, nobody is willing to step up to the plate," said Rep. Robert Meza, a Democrat from central Phoenix who estimates the chairman will have to raise at least $4 million for the next election. "Everyone thought Don did a good job and brought in the money.
The fundraising chops of whoever leads the Democratic Party into the 2010 election will be put to the te
st, as the party's premier attraction, Janet Napolitano, no longer will be governor. Democrat fundraising has jumped since Napolitano became governor, and the next chairman will have to ensure those dollars don't leave when she does.
Bivens said her departure will have a "significant impact" on the party's ability to solicit contributions, but said Napolitano has left behind an organizational structure within the party that allows it to succeed long after she is gone.
"It's going to hurt us, but it's not a fatal blow," he said.
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