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Poll results suggest Covid herd immunity a long shot

In this Sept. 14, 2021, file photo, a syringe is prepared with the Pfizer Covid vaccine at a clinic at the Reading Area Community College in Reading, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

A new statewide poll suggests there may be little, if anything that Gov. Doug Ducey and his new $400-an-hour health adviser can do to convince many more Arizonans to get vaccinated against Covid than already have made that decision.

The survey conducted earlier this month by OH Predictive Insights finds an increasing number of residents are more pessimistic about what is happening with the virus. And even among those who are unwilling to take the vaccine, nearly a quarter are extremely or moderately concerned about the current state of the pandemic in Arizona, with another half saying they have at least a slight concern.

Yet about 60% of these people still say they are not willing to get inoculated. And by a virtually identical number, they say that the new more transmissible delta variant had no effect on their willingness to get inoculated.

In fact, pollster Mike Noble found 18% said the delta variant actually made them less likely to roll up their sleeves. All that, he said, undermines efforts to reach “herd immunity” in Arizona, the point at which a sufficient percentage are inoculated to make it difficult for the virus to rapidly spread.

And he pointed out that percentage of those who want to remain unvaccinated really has not changed in the last six months.

That appears to be borne out by the state’s own vaccination numbers.

Vaccinations dropped below 10,000 a day in July. And now, even with news of the delta variant, it has not hit 20,000 a day — and come close only a handful of times — and is again declining.

That compares with close to 80,000 vaccinations a day at the peak of late March and early April.

As of Tuesday, 57.4% of Arizonans had at least one dose. And fewer than 51% are fully inoculated.

It was for that reason that Ducey last month said he hired Dr. Richard Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general, with the specific goal of boosting vaccine acceptance.

Carmona, for his part, has said he is looking at a new — and different from the past — public education campaign to address those who he believes are getting bad information about the vaccine.

In this Nov. 6, 2012 file photo, Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona gives his concession to Republican Rep. Jeff Flake at a Democratic Party gathering, in Tucson. On Aug. 26, 2021, Gov. Doug Ducey announced Carmona will the state’s senior health advisor on Covid matters. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)

The state has had a series of public service announcements urging people to get vaccinated, ranging from appeals by former Health Director Cara Christ to community leaders and even, at one point, a floating hot dog with a surgical mask as parachute.

Carmona said that there probably are up to 15% of Arizonans who, for whatever reason, simply will not get vaccinated. Still, he said herd immunity is possible if Arizona gets to that 85% level.

The doctor promised a new approach.

Details, however, have been sparse. Carmona has made some general comments about emphasizing the benefits to the economy of having a vaccinated population.

But gubernatorial press aide C.J. Karamargin pointed out that Carmona has been on board for less than a month.

“You’re expecting instant results?” he asked.

Karamargin, whose boss signed legislation forbidding schools from imposing mask mandates and opposes mandated vaccines, said Ducey still believes that vaccines “are the best way to put Covid behind us.”

“Dr. Carmona is well-equipped to lead this effort,” Karamargin said. “And he, himself, has said that it’s going to require hard work on everyone’s part to persuade those who may be hesitant to change their views.”

State health officials, in confirming the $400-a-hour deal with Carmona, said there is no set number of hours or specific limit on his earnings, saying only this is supposed to be a part-time role for the doctor along with the work he does at the University of Arizona and other entities.

On the subject of schools, Noble said he found that 58% of those questioned support the idea that schools — and not parents — should make the decision about whether students should have to wear masks despite the governor signing legislation that bans districts from enforcing such rules. That tracks closely with a different survey released earlier this month by the Arizona School Boards Association and the Arizona Public Health Association.

And Noble said that by a nearly 2-1 margin the people in the survey oppose Ducey’s unilateral decision to withhold certain federal Covid relief dollars from schools who have so far ignored the yet-to-take-effect law and require students to mask up.

The governor, who cannot seek a third term, has previously pronounced himself unconcerned with such numbers.

“I’m not going to pay attention to any poll as I’m trying to put out good public policy,” he said.

The online opt-in survey of 1,000 Arizonans was conducted between Sept. 7 and Sept. 12 and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

One comment

  1. Herd immunity is not just vaccinated, it’s people who recovered and have some natural immunity/resistance. Stop making it about the vaccine and make it about the truth. We could be at herd immunity now or soon. The number of people who have had COVID could be very large and add to the herd immunity percentage. The jab is not the only way to get there and people should have a right to choose.

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