Kari Lake is lagging behind Ruben Gallego, per initial election night results, with Gallego capturing 52.6% to Lake’s 45%. 

Polling has put Gallego ahead of Lake for the vast majority of their matchup, and the most updated vote count puts the Democrat candidate in step with prior projections. 

As of the first ballot drop at 8 p.m. election day, Gallego leads Lake by 118,646 votes. 

Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana got about 1.72% or 30,720 votes.  

The Senate seat vacated by Kyrsten Sinema set up a contentious race between Gallego, a Democrat congressman from a deep blue district, and Lake, a former newscaster, onetime gubernatorial hopeful and Trump acolyte.

Gallego entered the race early and tied anchors to his military background and working-class upbringing, while Lake kept in line with America First messaging and entered the Senate race while still contesting her 2022 gubernatorial election. 

Consultants marked independent voters as an essential voting bloc for both Lake and Gallego to capture, with the campaign marked by each candidate attempting to paint their opponent as the more extreme choice for the state. 

Key issues continued to be the border and immigration, with Lake trotting out Gallego’s past comments calling the border wall “stupid and dumb” and contrasting it to his Senate-run characterization of walls as “necessary.” 

Abortion became tantamount, too, with Gallego seizing on contradictory comments by Lake, in which she heralded then later urged the repeal of the 1864 abortion ban.

As for money, at each benchmark in campaign finance reporting, Gallego far outraised Lake and garnered more outside spending. 

Post-primary campaign finance reports show Lake had raised a total of $21.4 million, compared to $56.8 million raised by Gallego. As far as outside spending, Lake saw little support from national Republican outfits, while Democrats threw all their weight behind Gallego. 

Closer to home, two local pollsters put Lake and Gallego nine points and four points apart, with Lake seeing particular trouble courting Republicans and independent voters. 

Per a poll of 775 likely general election voters in Arizona conducted October 28 to 30, Noble Predictive Insights found Gallego still leads Lake by 3 points, or 4 when undecided voters were pushed to make a choice.

Lake saw slightly lower loyalty from the Republican party, at about 82%. Gallego has consolidated about 90% of Democrats and took the lead on Independents with about 14 more points in his favor. 

The poll slightly contrasted an earlier Senate race finding from HighGround Public Affairs, which found Gallego leading Lake by 9 points. 

Initial results released tonight put the margin closer to 8 points.