For the first time since 2020, one party in the Arizona legislature has expanded its stronghold.

Republicans gained one seat in the Senate for a 17-13 majority and two seats in the House for a 33-27 majority. 

“We are stronger than ever before right now,” said Speaker-elect Steve Montenegro, R-Goodyear, after he was elected as the incoming speaker by the House GOP caucus. “The last election cycle has shown it where the Democrats have spent tens of millions of dollars to try to flip the chambers but they’ve done so unsuccessfully. The people of Arizona have spoken.”

The GOP completely flipped three legislative districts that have been considered highly competitive swing districts in recent years. 

Legislative Districts 4, 13 and 16 turned red after the November election. Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande; and Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix, lost to Republicans Chris Lopez and Carine Werner, respectively. 

Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, D-Chandler, didn’t seek re-election in LD13. Representative-elect Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler, was elected with Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, defeating their Democratic opponents Nicholas Gonzales and Brandy Reese. 

The only seat Republicans lost was in Legislative District 17. Democrat Kevin Volk defeated incumbent Rep. Cory McGarr, R-Tucson, in the district’s House race.

For Democrats, the results were disappointing for a party that chipped away at Republican legislative supermajorities in earlier decades. Democrats haven’t held a majority in both chambers at the same time since the 1960s.

Flipping the legislature was a major goal for the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which spent millions backing candidates in swing districts who outraised many of their Republican opponents.

“Arizona’s legislative chambers will remain in Republican control. Across the country, down-ballot Democrats worked tirelessly to combat top-of-the-ticket trends. It is now clear that those trends proved to be insurmountable,” said ADLCC Executive Director Elsa O’Callaghan in a prepared statement. 

The additional two seats in the House and one seat in the Senate don’t bring the GOP to supermajority representation that the party once held in the state, but HighGround Public Affairs consultant Doug Cole said every seat matters for the Legislature’s negotiations with Gov. Katie Hobbs.

“The last four years, it’s been one vote,” Cole said. “Sometimes, people will need to break away (from party leadership). This will allow them to.”

Cole said it can be easier for party leaders at times when they have a smaller majority because supermajorities can create subgroups within a party. 

But there is one major subgroup at the Legislature, the Arizona Freedom Caucus. 

Several members of the Freedom Caucus have already been critical of Montenegro and his leadership team, despite Montenegro not being elected speaker officially yet.

After Montenegro was named incoming speaker, Rep. Jacqueline Parker, R-Mesa, wrote in a Nov. 13 post on X: “In the case of the House, openly turning chairmanship appointments over to the worst of the worst lobbyists is a dereliction of duty the likes of which the AZ leg has not seen for quite a while (if ever). So far the secret vote  was just a caucus agreement. It can be changed.” 

Cole said he expects the influence of the Freedom Caucus at the Legislature to be just as strong as it’s been in recent years.

“The Freedom Caucus is still as relevant as they always have been because of who the president of the United States is,” Cole said. “That does filter down to local politics.”

The next two years are pivotal for both parties as they navigate the early stages of President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration. A Dec. 10 poll from Noble Predictive Insights determined 45% of voters believe Republicans are better equipped to run the state while 41% said Democrats would be better in charge.

The Noble poll also noted independent voters in August viewed Democrats as being better to run the state by a small 2-point lead, but that swung toward Republicans by 8 points after the election.

“Republicans have a decent – but not unbeatable – edge on who is thought to run the government more effectively. Republicans effectively appealed to independents this election, and voters now trust them to govern,” said David Byler, Noble’s chief of research. “If the GOP governs well, they could grow this edge – and if they fail, they could easily give it up.”

Democratic consultant Gaelle Esposito said she believes Arizona shifted left relative to the rest of the country, where Republicans saw major wins. She pointed to Democrat Ruben Gallego’s win over Kari Lake in the U.S. Senate race and said an ambitious strategy from Democrats for legislative elections led to Republicans gaining ground in the House

In previous elections, Democrats have often used the single-shot strategy of only running one candidate against two Republican opponents. That trend was slightly bucked this year with Democrats running two candidates in LD4 and LD13. 

“This is the best partisan environment they could have asked for and this is all they got,” Esposito said. “We’ll see if they’re just continuing to live on borrowed time … I would assume Hobbs would have a very good chance at re-election having both the foil of the Trump administration and a continued Republican Legislature to work against.”