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Tag: Chuck Coughlin

Will excess clemency hamper Hobbs’ re-election bid?

Key Points: 
  • Hobbs stays consistent on granting majority clemency recommendations
  • Consultant says clemency decisions unlikely to significantly impact reelection
  • Commutations remain rare, but applications rise despite low success rates

Gov. Katie Hobbs continues to keep a steady record in granting most, but not all, of the recommendations sent to her by the Board of Executive Clemency. 

During her time in office, Hobbs has granted 21 clemency requests of the 35 recommended to her office, with three sent this year still pending. 

Whether her approach changes during an election year remains an open question, but a political consultant said Hobbs’ decisions on commutations and pardons are unlikely to weigh heavily on her campaign for re-election. 

“For a Democratic governor in Arizona, it shouldn’t be a massive political calculus that would go into making a rational, well-reasoned decision about a commutation or a pardon,” Chuck Coughlin, political consultant for HighGround, said.

The Board of Executive Clemency is tasked with conducting a two-phase hearing for commutations, or the shortening or altering sentences deemed excessive, pardons, or the complete clearance of someone’s criminal and carceral record, and early release for inmates in imminent danger of death. 

A majority of the board must recommend clemency to the governor who then makes the final say on whether to grant or deny the application, with no deadline. But when the vote from the board is unanimous, the recommendation takes effect if the governor fails to grant or deny it within 90 days. 

In 2023, the board sent nine commutation recommendations – two pardons, four commutations and three releases for inmates in imminent danger of death – to the governor, and she granted seven, leaving two commutations still pending. 

In 2024, the board sent seven recommendations to the governor, including three commutations, three imminent-danger-of-death cases and one pardon. 

She granted two commutations and two releases for imminent danger of death. 

One commutation went to Marilyn Keppler, who was charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon or dangerous instrument by domestic violence in 2021 after hitting her husband in the head with a hammer. 

Hobbs commuted Kepler’s eight-year sentence to time served, citing good behavior in prison, participation in programming aimed at personal development, lack of any criminal history and significantly deteriorating physical health. Kepler has since passed away.

The governor also commuted a 292-year sentence levied on Atdom Patsalis for a string of theft charges to a life sentence with the possibility of parole after concluding the sentence was disproportionate to the offense. Because Patsalis had already served 10 years in prison, he was immediately eligible for parole. 

In 2025, Hobbs received 16 recommendations – three pardons, seven commutations and six imminent dangers of death. 

She granted five imminent dangers of death and the sixth went into effect after the 90-day mark. And, the governor granted one pardon for Olayinka Ajiboye, who was sentenced to three years for possession of marijuana and drug paraphernalia. 

Three people saw their sentences commuted in 2025.

One, Demitrius Moore, was sentenced to life without the possibility of release for 25 years for first degree murder, and further sentenced to another 10 years for kidnapping. 

Moore did not kill anyone but was present during a fatal robbery and kidnapping. In 2019, he was paroled from his life sentence to his active sentence. He’s now served 30 years in prison. 

Hobbs commuted the sentence, noting Moore had received a “far more excessive sentence than any other defendant despite having had a far less active role in the commission of the underlying crimes,” according to her annual clemency report to the Legislature. 

She noted he had served as a dedicated mentor. He still has to serve additional time on other counts but he will be parole eligible in five years. 

Bryan Booker, a man who was serving a life sentence without parole for driving a vehicle during a drive-by shooting, saw his sentence commuted to 25 years to life with parole eligibility. 

Hobbs noted Booker was a teenager at the time of his offense and had already served 25 years in prison. 

Hobbs then commuted a 40-year prison sentence for Hope King to two years. King was sentenced to 40 years for attempted murder and child abuse after injuring her infant daughter. But, given a postpartum psychosis diagnosis not raised at trial, Hobbs deemed the sentence excessive. 

Hobbs currently has three new cases – one commutation and two pardons – on her desk as of March 2026. Six cases from years past are still pending. 

Now that Hobbs is entering an election year, Coughlin does not expect her decisions on clemency to play a big role in the general election. 

“I wouldn’t imagine she would have any significant issues, particularly with her Democratic voter base, on what she’s done,” Coughlin said. “I’m sure she’s been thoughtful about exposing herself to undue criticism in a general election environment.” 

He contrasted Hobbs’ situation with a Republican primary. 

“It’s more relevant for Republican candidates who face Republican primary voters – law and order, hang em’ high, not a lot of grace there,” Coughlin said. “I would imagine she wouldn’t have any significant issues, particularly with her Democratic voter base, on what she’s done.” 

Over Hobbs’ time in office, the total of commutations sent to the board continues to increase. In FY2025, the board conducted 260 phase one commutation hearings, jumping from 199 the year prior. 

Gretchen McClellan-Singh, the board’s executive director, acknowledged the increase and noted that the board has already received around 60 applications this year. 

Donna Hamm, executive director of Middle Ground Prison Reform, who often assists inmates in the clemency application process, emphasized the chances of getting a commutation in front of the governor in the first place continues to be slim. 

She likens the process to buying a lottery ticket. 

“The most important thing that I focus on is how slim their chances are of being successful,” Hamm said. “Because statistically, historically, it’s like buying a lottery I tell them, It’s like buying a lottery ticket. You can never, ever win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket, but your chances are almost nil of winning.” 

Hamm added, too, commutations are meant to be the exception, not the rule. 

“Commutation is supposed to be rare,” Hamm said. “It’s supposed to be for extraordinary cases.” 

Independent Party ‘disruptor’ enters race for governor

Key Points:
  • Hugh Lytle is running for governor as an Arizona Independent Party candidate
  • Independents are unlikely to be elected, but could play spoiler to other candidates
  • Gov. Katie Hobbs’ campaign is most likely to be impacted by Lytle’s candidacy, consultants say

An independent contender has entered Arizona’s competitive gubernatorial race, which could spell trouble for candidates in the state’s two major political parties.

On Jan. 26, local health care executive Hugh Lytle announced he would join a growing pool of challengers to incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs, but with the backing of the Arizona Independent Party. Three Republicans — business executive Karrin Taylor Robson, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert — are also hoping to unseat Hobbs. 

Lytle is the founder of Equality Health and several other health care organizations offering services to providers. He got his start in the Grand Canyon State as a quarterback at Arizona State University, but was forced to switch gears after breaking his collarbone during a scrimmage. 

Lytle describes himself as a disruptor hoping to “bridge the partisan divide” in Arizona and provide voters with more than two options on the ballot. 

“The two parties are trapped in a fight that never ends,” Lytle said in a press release announcing his candidacy. “They argue, posture, divide — but they don’t solve the big problems.” 

Political consultants and observers agree that independent candidates, whether they’re affiliated with the newly-created Arizona Independent Party or not, still have an uphill battle to get elected in Arizona. But they could have an outsized impact on the governor’s race by siphoning votes from Hobbs or whoever her eventual Republican challenger will be. 

Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, said he believes Lytle’s campaign is more likely to negatively affect Hobbs than a potential Republican opponent.

“The conventional wisdom is that an independent candidate hurts a Democrat more than a Republican, because Republican voters are more loyal, more conservative, and older, and they tend to stick to their hometown team,” Coughlin said. 

And a candidate like Lytle has more potential for causing harm to Hobbs this year because of the “immediate ballot access” provided by the Arizona Independent Party, Coughlin said. 

Traditionally, “no party affiliated” has been considered Arizona’s designation for independent voters. Under state law, candidates running without party affiliation have to gather at least 44,539 petition signatures to qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, while candidates running as Republicans or Democrats only have to gather around 7,000 signatures.

Paul Johnson, a former Phoenix mayor, saw an opportunity to skirt the barrier to entry for independent candidates when the No Labels Party fizzled after its 2024 attempt to run a third-party candidate for president. Because No Labels is a recognized party in Arizona, its candidates only have to gather 1,288 signatures.

Johnson became chair of No Labels in 2025, quickly changed the party’s name to the Arizona Independent Party, and began recruiting candidates to run as independents. That name change is the subject of ongoing litigation brought by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission, the Arizona Republican Party and the Arizona Democratic Party, who all argue it will confuse voters who want to register as “no party affiliated.”

Johnson told reporters at a press conference on Jan. 27 that the AIP’s efforts will continue regardless of the outcome of the lawsuits, and the intention isn’t to draw voters away from major party candidates.

“Our goal, clearly, is not to be anti-Democrat or anti-Republican,” Johnson said. “We think both of those groups have something positive to offer, but so do independents.”

Given the tight margins in Arizona races in recent years and the decline in voter registration among Democrats, Hobbs and Democratic incumbents like Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes will need every independent vote they can get. In 2022, Hobbs beat Republican Kari Lake by just over 17,000 votes, while Mayes bested now-Congressman Abe Hamadeh by just 280 votes. 

As of January 2026, AIP has 41,484 registered voters — more than enough to have swayed either Hobbs’ or Mayes’ 2022 races. Over 1.4 million Arizonans are registered as “no party affiliated” and might also be interested in a third-party option.

“Some independents are going to be turned off by both the partisan D and the partisan R, and so they’ll vote for the third party candidate, where those votes historically … tend to go to the Democrats,” Coughlin said. 

However, Lytle shrugs off the suggestion that his candidacy will only serve as a spoiler for Hobbs or her eventual Republican challenger.

“I would say maybe that’s the case if we had 5% of the electorate, but we don’t,” Lytle said. “Recent Gallup polls show 44% of average Americans at least identify as being an independent, but they have no way to attach who’s their party leader, who’s someone who can represent the interest of independence. So spoiler, no, I think they’re spoiling me.” 

Still, Coughlin argued that even though more voters are registering without party affiliation in Arizona, the electorate is still “deeply partisan.” One Democratic consultant, speaking on background, agreed with Coughlin, noting that Arizona’s independents like to split their ballots and vote for a mix of Republicans and Democrats rather than a third-party candidate. 

That consultant said it is unlikely that Lytle will pose any real challenge to the major party candidates given the rocky launch of the AIP and its lack of resources. 

Coughlin also noted that despite the lower signature threshold for AIP candidates, both major parties will attempt to block them from the ballot in court through petition signature challenges. 

“They will use every lever at their disposal to make an independent campaign more and more difficult,” Coughlin said. “But the question becomes, what does an independent campaign have to do to be relevant? And really if you’re getting eight to 10% of the vote, you’re relevant.” 

Schweikert announces bid for Arizona governor, faces criticism from both sides

Key Points:
  • US Rep. David Schweikert joins Republican primary for governor
  • Schweikert concerned about Republican candidates’ ability to beat Gov. Katie Hobbs
  • Schweikert’s departure opens up a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix

U.S. Rep. David Schweikert is officially jumping into the Republican primary for governor, opening up a barrage of political attacks from both sides of the aisle and a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix.

After months of speculation, Schweikert confirmed his intent to run in an interview with the Arizona Republic on Sept. 30, citing his concern that the two current Republican candidates, fellow U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, cannot defeat incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in a general election. The announcement sparked swift reactions from both Republican candidates and supporters of Hobbs.

“The race for second place is on between two career politicians,” a press release from Robson’s campaign said. 

Biggs’ campaign highlighted a new poll from conservative firm Pulse Decision Science, which put him far ahead of both Robson and Schweikert, with Schweikert trailing 23% to Biggs’ 61% among likely Republican primary voters. 

“No matter what the field looks like, the polls have been clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are supporting our campaign,” Biggs said in a post on X. “We’ll keep working and building on our lead over the coming months.”

Both Robson and Biggs touted their shared endorsement from President Donald Trump, something Schweikert is unlikely to snag. Trump previously endorsed two candidates in 2024’s Republican primary for Congressional District 8, but a three-way endorsement would be unprecedented.

Biggs also has the support of conservative juggernaut Turning Point USA, and its late-founder Charlie Kirk endorsed his campaign earlier this year. Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs and a Republican turned independent, said he doesn’t see a path to victory for Schweikert in the primary. 

“I think most MAGA Republicans and Trump supporters in the Republican primary are going to Congressman Biggs,” Coughlin said. “Given the geography of (Schweikert’s) district, I could see how he could persuade maybe some of Robson’s supporters to move his way … but I still think Karrin, given her last statewide race and better name I.D., is a pretty formidable candidate herself.” 

Democrats joined in on the attacks against Schweikert Tuesday, with Copper State Victory, the coordinated campaign to re-elect Arizona’s top three Democrats, calling out the Congressman’s recent votes in favor of Trump administration policies like the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

“The Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary is already a messy, expensive race that is running further and further to the extreme right at the expense of Arizona families,” a press release from Copper State Victory said. “With Congressman David Schweikert’s decision to step into the ring, this primary will now escalate exponentially into an all-out brawl.”

Schweikert’s decision to enter the gubernatorial race opens up his seat in Congressional District 1. He and U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar are Arizona’s two longest-serving current congressional members, and Schweikert’s departure from Congress would give a new Republican candidate the opportunity to try to secure what has become a key battleground seat for the GOP in recent elections. 

In 2024, Schweikert defeated Democrat Amish Shah by just under 4% of votes in the district, expanding on a narrow 2022 victory where he beat Jevin Hodge by a margin of less than 1%. 

Shah is running again for Congress in the district, and 11 other Democrats have filed paperwork with the Secretary of State’s Office to express interest in running as well. 

“David Schweikert will no longer be my opponent. Earlier this year, he joined nearly every House Republican in Congress to take healthcare away from millions of Americans and explode the national debt, all to give tax cuts to the ultra-rich. Meanwhile, the American people witness daily chaos and absurdity in the news every morning from government shutdowns to canceling comedians to economy-crushing tariffs. Any Republican from our district who replaces Schweikert in this race will be afraid to stand up to the Trump Administration to put America on the right track,” Shah said in a statement. 

Registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats by more than 62,000, according to a July voter registration report from the Secretary of State’s office. There are another 179,000 voters registered as “other” in the district.

“Republicans will field a strong candidate to defeat whichever liberal emerges from the Democrats’ 7-way primary. Voters in this district are shifting rightward and reject Democrats’ tax-raising, open borders agenda,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesperson Ben Petersen.

One prominent valley Republican has already rejected rumors that he might run for the CD1 seat hours after Schweikert announced his decision to run. 

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Thomas Galvin wrote in a post on X that he’s flattered his name has been tossed around as Schweikert’s successor but he would rather continue serving on the board with the “best job in Arizona government.”

While rumors continue to swirl around potential Republican candidates in CD1, no official announcements have been made. 

Tight races could leave Senate equally divided

With Democrats aiming to flip the Legislature and Republicans defending their slim majority, consultants said the Senate could see an equally split chamber for the first time since 2000. 

The 2022 legislative districting map has brought up highly competitive general races in key districts – and similar campaign strategies. 

Democrats are vying for the majority after more than 20 years of Republican control. The GOP majority has slimmed in the past 10 years, but Republican candidates championed a two-seat lead in both the House and Senate in the 2022 general election. 

With most primary election results called, GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said the Senate could see an equally split chamber for the first time since 2000. 

As it stands, the chamber is led by Republicans with a 16-14 majority and Democratic campaigns are applying pressure to every legislative district that could sway blue.

The minority party is running heavily-funded candidates for Senate seats in six close competitive districts. Campaigns on both sides of the aisle are encouraging voters in highly contentious districts to reject their opposing general election candidate for being too “extreme” for the area they seek to represent. 

In the Republican-leaning Legislative District 17, former lawmaker Vince Leach ousted incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack in the GOP primary. Leach is a less controversial general election candidate than Wadsack, Coughlin said, thus reducing the tightness of the race for Democrat candidates. 

“There are other races that, at this juncture, look less competitive,” Coughlin said. “I forecast 15-15 right now.”

Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, also said that primary results forecast a tighter battle for the majority. 

“Pre-primary there was a decent shot, however, post-primary I’d say the field goal just got moved to the 50-yard line – not impossible, but a challenge,” Noble said of Democrats winning a tie in the chamber. 

Though Leach is viewed as a less beatable candidate to some, the Arizona Democratic legislative campaign committee said in a written statement that he is “one of the most extreme legislators in his party and consistently prioritized special interests over his constituents.” John McLean, a businessman, is Leach’s Democratic competition. 

The Democratic committee has undertaken a similar tactic at battleground districts across the state, urging voters to side with the less “extreme” candidate, but most of their target districts lean slightly Republican.  

Noble and Coughlin both said a tie in the chamber could come down to Legislative District 2. The district, which encompasses northern Phoenix, is highly competitive and leans very slightly in favor of Republican candidates, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Sen. Shawnna Bolick is the GOP incumbent of LD2. She beat her primary opponent, Josh Barnett, by about 7% of votes.  Coughlin said the Senate seat is shaping up to be “Democrats’ number one pickup opportunity,” where the party is running Rep. Judy Schwiebert.

Democrat political action committees from in and out of state have funneled thousands into Schwiebert’s campaign effort. Bolick had $164,386 on hand, according to pre-primary finance reports, while Schwiebert led by nearly double with $327,518 on hand. 

The Republican Arizona Senate Victory Fund PAC announced their own version of the “reject extremism” campaign strategy on Aug. 6, which specifically targets Legislative District 4. The slightly-GOP district is represented in the Senate by Democrat incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, who they dubbed “Extreme Christine.” 

The “Extreme Christine” campaign website took a similar strategy to ADLCC by telling voters to “send extreme Christine home” and lists her voting record on issues like immigration, school choice and taxes. 

The only time a chamber has been tied in Arizona was in the Senate from 2001 to 2002. Republicans lost control of their majority during the 2000 general election. 

At the time, Democratic lawmakers negotiated with former Sen. Randall Gnant, a Republican, and convinced him to be the president of the chamber on the condition that committees be split. 

Former state Sen. Pete Rios, a Democrat, said in a 2011 interview with the Arizona Memory Project that Gnant was their first choice because he seemed “moderate enough for Democrats to work with.” 

Rios recalled the dinner where Democrats convinced Gnant to lead the chamber: “I said, ‘Randall, if you say you’re going to do it, you’re going to do it, and we’re not leaving here until we sign this thing in blood. Once we leave here, you’re going to be president, you’re going to take a lot of heat, your people are going to call you every name in the book like God’s child, so you better be ready.’ He said, ‘I know it, I know it.’”

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Hobbs more inclined to issue clemency than predecessors

Gov. Katie Hobbs granted seven of the nine recommendations sent by the Board of Executive Clemency since taking office, marking an early departure from the record of her Republican predecessor....

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