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Hoffman calls for 2-weeks of remote learning

In this Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018 photo, Kathy Hoffman, a public school speech therapist, is a Democratic candidate running for superintendent of public education, in Phoenix. Hoffman is running against three-term California congressman Frank Riggs, the founding president of an online charter school. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
In this Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018 photo, Kathy Hoffman, a public school speech therapist, is a Democratic candidate running for superintendent of public education, in Phoenix. Hoffman is running against three-term California congressman Frank Riggs, the founding president of an online charter school. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

The state’s top school official wants Gov. Doug Ducey to keep schools closed to in-person learning for two weeks following the explosion of COVID-19 cases in the state.

“Given the severity of our state’s situation and the virus’s trajectory after the holiday period, Gov. Doug Ducey should order schools to remain in distance learning for a limited two-week period,” Kathy Hoffman said Saturday afternoon. And she told Capitol Media Services that opening schools immediately after the Christmas holidays given the level of infection is “reckless.”

Hoffman pointed out that the Department of Health Services has found that the risk of infection in the state is considered “substantial.” That includes an average of 648 cases per 100,000 residents, far above what is considered in the moderate risk range of anything below 100 cases.

She also noted that 17.5% of the tests for the virus are coming back positive and that more than 14% of hospital visits are for COVID-like illness.

Even more significant is that the figures the health department uses to determine current risk levels in Arizona actually are two weeks old. Since that time all of the numbers have gone even higher and hospitals are at record-low level of beds to care for patients.

But an aide to the governor said he has no interest in doing that.

“Gov. Ducey will not be considering this request or issuing this kind of mandate,” said spokesman C.J. Karamargin. More to the point, he said there is no need for such an action.

“This is a local decision,” Karamargin said, with online learning already an option for those districts that want to offer it.

And even if it were not, he said that Ducey doesn’t think that keeping schools closed any longer makes sense.

“The governor has repeatedly made his preference clear: Kids have already lost out on a lot of learning and he wants schools opened, safely,” Karamargin said.

Hoffman told Capitol Media Services the two-week period she is suggesting is designed to coincide with a standard quarantine period after people may have been exposed. And she said she understands that nothing in either state law or gubernatorial guidance precludes a local school board from unilaterally extending online learning for another two weeks.

But the schools chief said a broader mandate is appropriate.

“We’re coming back from the holidays and cases are through the roof,” Hoffman said. “Right now it seems reckless for any schools to be offering in-person instruction.”

The most recent data shows another 46 deaths were reported Saturday, bringing the statewide total of 9,061. And another 8,883 new cases puts the statewide tally at more than 539,000.

Even with all that, the superintendent of public instruction said that there are some districts that are not listening to the recommendations of their local health departments which have warned of the spread of the virus if students go back to class.

Anyway, Hoffman said, it’s not like she proposing that schools remain shuttered for some indefinite period, even with the spike in cases.

“It’s just for two weeks,” she said. And Hoffman said that schools still are generally required to provide  a safe place for students during the day, even if all learning is remote.

What makes it more dangerous, Hoffman said, is that Arizona hospitals are filling up.

More than 60% of beds in intensive-care units are occupied by patients with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19. When other non-COVID patients are added to the mix, that leaves just 132 ICU beds available statewide for those who need it, just 7% of capacity.

Inpatient bed usage also remains at record levels, with just a 7% vacancy rate.

And there are more patients on ventilators now than there have been since the pandemic began.

Banner Health Systems, the state’s largest hospital network, already is turning away ambulances and transfers from other hospitals, though it is still accepting walk-in patients who need emergency care.

Several hospitals also have stopped doing elective procedures, those that doctors determine can wait a few weeks without endangering the life or health of the patient.

“Our teachers who are being asked to go teach in person despite the very high risk and high spread of COVID in the community are very fearful because they’re worried because if they get sick are they going to be able to get care in a medical facility,” Hoffman said.

The schools chief noted there is another reason that a delay may help stop the spread.

She pointed out that the priority that state health officials have set for who gets the vaccine puts teachers and school staff into the 1-B category, second behind health care workers and staffers in long-term care facilities. That 1-B category also includes child-care workers, public safety personnel and those age 75 and older.

State health officials have said they hope to begin administering to those in the 1-B category this month, though for the moment that will include only the first of what needs to be a two-shot regimen. But there is believed to be some protection offered from just that first inoculation.

 

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Ducey fires agency director who defended tax hike

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State’s oldest residents elevated on list for first COVID-19 immunizations

World War II veteran John Mohun, 94, receives the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Veterans Affairs agency in Phoenix on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2020. The VA began administering vaccinations to staff and veterans in Phoenix, starting with those at the VA health care system's nursing home and are voluntary for both staff and veterans. They will be offered next to staff of the emergency department and intensive care unit of the VA's Phoenix medical center, spokeswoman Cindy Dorfner said. (Dexter Marquez/Veterans Affairs via AP)
World War II veteran John Mohun, 94, receives the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at the Veterans Affairs agency in Phoenix on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2020. The VA began administering vaccinations to staff and veterans in Phoenix, starting with those at the VA health care system’s nursing home and are voluntary for both staff and veterans. They will be offered next to staff of the emergency department and intensive care unit of the VA’s Phoenix medical center, spokeswoman Cindy Dorfner said. (Dexter Marquez/Veterans Affairs via AP)

Arizona’s oldest residents are going to be moved up on the list of who gets the first COVID-19 immunizations.

The move by Gov. Doug Ducey and the Department of Health Services comes a week after the an advisory panel of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says those 75 and older should be moved into the second tier of those getting the vaccine. That puts them behind only health care workers and residents of long-term care facilities.

Ducey, in a prepared statement, said the move is justified.

“One of Arizona’s top priorities since the start of the pandemic has been to protect our most vulnerable,” he said.

That assessment is backed by CDC data.

As of Dec. 20, when the agency’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices made the recommendation, the cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was 1,211 for every 100,000 individuals 75 and older. By contrast, the same figure for those age 65 to 74 was just 642.

Put another way, the CDC says individuals 75 and older make up 8% of the population but have 25% of hospitalizations. They also have the highest death rate of any age group.

And the agency says that, compared with individuals age 35 through 54, those in the 65-74 age group are eight times more likely to die. Take that out to those 75 and older and the risk of death is more than 30 times higher.

The CDC says this is about more than saving lives. The agency figures that reducing the number of elderly people who have to be hospitalized due to COVID-19 “can help ease the burden on strained health care systems.”

Until now, those 75 and older had been lumped in the third tier, the same category as those in the 65-plus age group.

Moving up this group now gives them the same priority as “essential workers.” In Arizona, that includes educators, workers in the food and agriculture industry, police, firefighters, correctional workers and those in the utility industry.

The recommendation from the CDC panel to move the most elderly up on the priority list was not unanimous.

Politico reports that Henry Bernstein, chief of pediatrics at the Hofstra/Northwell Cohen Children’s Medical Center in New York was the lone dissenter. He argued that everyone 65 and older has similar risks and all should have been put into the higher priority group.

State tax collector wants Prop 208 to take effect

adding machine tape

The state Department of Revenue wants a judge to quash efforts by business interests and some Republican legislators to keep a new tax to fund education from taking effect.

And it puts the agency, a division of the state, somewhat at odds with Gov. Doug Ducey, who had urged voters, unsuccessfully, to defeat the measure.

Brian Bergin, an attorney hired by the state in the legal fight, is telling Maricopa County Superior Court Judge John Hannah there is no legal justification for him to bar enforcement of the new 3.5% income tax surcharge on the wealthy approved by voters in Proposition 208. If nothing else, Bergin said, there’s no rush to deal with it because the earliest people would actually owe the tax is April of 2022.

Bergin also said an injunction is inappropriate because the challengers have not demonstrated they ultimately will win the case.

But the most crucial point, according to Bergin, is that an order precluding the state from collecting the tax would be illegal.

He points out that state law specifically prohibits courts from enjoining the collection of any tax.

The reason, Bergin told Hannah, is that to allow a court to block collection of a disputed tax would undermine the government’s ability to function. And he said if a tax is later determined to be illegal, there is a simple remedy: Those who paid it can seek a refund.

Beyond that, Bergin said the judge needs to think long and hard before undermining the voter-approved tax.

“The Arizona Supreme Court has long recognized Arizona’s strong public policy favoring initiatives,” he wrote. And Bergin said that under the Arizona Constitution the power of people to create their own laws is equal to that of elected legislators.

“Courts must exercise restraint before imposing unreasonable restrictions on the people’s legislative authority,” he told Hannah. “Additionally, every initiative is presumed to be constitutional.”

That, Begin wrote, is true here.

“Proposition 208 apparently reflects the voters’ belief that the state’s educational system is underfunded and requires additional permanent funding that the legislature has been unable, or unwilling, to provide,” he said.

“The people have spoken in approving Proposition 208,” Bergin continued. “Public policy heavily weighs against imposing injunctive relief.”

Bergin’s position as attorney of record for the state and its Department of Revenue puts him — and his clients — in an unusual position.

Prior to the November election, the governor decried trying to raise $940 million for K-12 education — the estimate provided by Prop 208 supporters — on the backs of the top 4% of Arizona wage earners.

“That’s a whopping amount, especially considering that our economy is recovering from recession and high unemployment,” he wrote in a prepared statement of opposition.

It wasn’t just Ducey among state officials opposed to the measure.

Fellow Republican Kimberly Yee, the state treasurer, appeared in TV commercials asking voters to reject the measure.

By contrast, state schools chief Kathy Hoffman came out in support.

Bergin makes no reference to all of that in his legal arguments. Instead he is telling Hannah that the law is not on the side of those who want to block the tax.

The underlying lawsuit claims voters have no right to levy a tax on their own, saying that power is reserved for elected legislators.

And Dominic Draye, representing the challengers, says even if they do — a point he is not conceding — voters are subject to the same constitutional requirement that applies to the legislature when it wants to raise taxes: It needs a two-thirds vote to take effect.

Draye is separately trying to convince Hannah that the initiative imposing the new levy, which is in the form of a statutory change, cannot trump a constitutional limit on the amount of funds that can be raised for K-12 education.

He wants Hannah to immediately bar collection of the tax pending a full-blown trial on the merits.

Supporters of the levy have their own arguments about why Draye and his clients are wrong.

For Bergin, however, the issue is more basic. He said there’s no reason for such an injunction, even if it were legal for Hannah to issue one.

It is true that the higher tax rate is effective starting on Jan. 1.

But taxes on what people earn in 2021 are not due until April of 2022. And Bergin told the judge any questions about the legality of the levy should be resolved long before then.

It is true that there is some collection of income taxes through the year, usually in the form of withholding from paychecks. And many self-employed individuals make estimated tax payments.

Bergin said there is no way for the Department of Revenue to refuse to accept these payments. And if the tax surcharge eventually were to be declared illegal and too much is prepaid, then the taxpayer is entitled to a refund.

And there’s something else.

Bergin said the challengers apparently want to delay collecting any money until the case winds its way through the court system.

But he said that could mean that money won’t be collected until that final resolution, assuming the levy ultimately is determined to be legal. And that, Bergin said, is not good policy.

“There is no legal or equitable justification for such a delay,” he told Hannah. “Any such delay would cause significant hardships to Arizona voters who passed Proposition 208 and for the Arizona schools, teachers and students that Proposition 208 was designed to benefit.”

 

 

 

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COVID-19 spike brings gloomy outlook for months ahead

A healthcare worker performs a COVID-19 test at a drive-thru testing center Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020, in Phoenix. Arizona on Tuesday set a new daily record with over 12,300 additional known coronavirus cases as the number of hospitalized patients approached levels similar to the peak of last summer's surge, with the state's seven-day rolling average continuing to climb in the past two weeks as have the rolling averages for daily deaths and daily COVID-19 testing positivity. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
A healthcare worker performs a COVID-19 test at a drive-thru testing center Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020, in Phoenix. Arizona on Tuesday set a new daily record with over 12,300 additional known coronavirus cases as the number of hospitalized patients approached levels similar to the peak of last summer’s surge, with the state’s seven-day rolling average continuing to climb in the past two weeks as have the rolling averages for daily deaths and daily COVID-19 testing positivity. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

There’s nothing that can stop the wave of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations coming this month, public health officials say.

It’s going to make for a gloomy Christmas. 

Doctors and health experts alike have been warning of this possibility since early October as cases began to climb in Arizona’s “second wave” after a rather quiet September. November came along and was worse than June when Arizona began it’s reign as one of the worst hit places in the world, which lasted through July. Now, less than two weeks into December, it’s pretty clear this will be the worst month on record in every way for the virus that has already taken more than 7,000 lives of Arizonans.

“We’re gonna have a horrible Christmas,” said Dr. Andrew Carroll, the medical director at Atembis and serves on the Board of Directors of the American Academy of Family Physicians.

He said hospitals are expecting to reach capacity in the next couple of weeks and at this point, nothing can be done to prevent it. 

“The lack of mask mandates, the lack of gathering sizes and industry shut down, especially over Thanksgiving holiday, is going to be the tsunami we’re going to get hit with in the next two to three weeks and we’re already flooded,” Carroll said.

Doug Ducey
Doug Ducey

Gov. Doug Ducey has made it clear he will not impose any new restrictions — a position he has held for months — but even if he did it would be too little too late.

Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association, once again called out Ducey and Arizona Department of Health Services Director Dr. Cara Christ for slow walking their efforts to combat COVID-19.

“[Ducey] could have done a full-on stay-at-home order, the likes of which we had in April, and we would still have a terrible hospital crisis,” he said. 

Humble said a mask mandate with enforcement on the businesses rather than the individual would have been the smart move, but again, it’s too late for it to have an impact likely before January. Instead, Humble said, Ducey is prioritizing making businesses survive the pandemic rather than the individual.

Putting the burden on the businesses would be a way to encourage enforcement of masks, especially since Ducey won’t issue a statewide mandate. He claims 90% of Arizonans already have an order to do so. That number, though, may not be as accurate as Ducey and his staff make it out to be.  

Ducey’s office said it gets the number from Covid Exit Strategy, a website dedicated to tracking all COVID-19 information nationwide from cases and deaths to mask mandates and other policies. It consists of national health experts.

Covid Exit Strategy says Arizona has 91% of the state under a mask mandate, and it gets its number from a survey conducted on Facebook using a sample size of fewer than 6,000. It’s unclear what methodology is used for the survey and if the sample size is even made up of Arizonans. A representative from the site could not be reached for comment. 

Still, wearing a mask is just one prong in preventing further exposure and spreading the virus. Carroll said he wishes more would have been done. 

A healthcare worker finishes up organizing COVID-19 tests at a drive-thru testing center Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020, in Phoenix. Arizona on Tuesday set a new daily record with over 12,300 additional known coronavirus cases as the number of hospitalized patients approached levels similar to the peak of last summer's surge, with the state's seven-day rolling average continuing to climb in the past two weeks as have the rolling averages for daily deaths and daily COVID-19 testing positivity. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
A healthcare worker finishes up organizing COVID-19 tests at a drive-thru testing center Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2020, in Phoenix. Arizona on Tuesday set a new daily record with over 12,300 additional known coronavirus cases as the number of hospitalized patients approached levels similar to the peak of last summer’s surge, with the state’s seven-day rolling average continuing to climb in the past two weeks as have the rolling averages for daily deaths and daily COVID-19 testing positivity. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

“As a physician, I would like to have full shutdowns in areas with high disease incidents of certain industries, which we know increase the transmission of the illness like bars and clubs,” he said. 

He thought Ducey’s decision for restaurants expanding outdoor seating was a positive step, but the lack of limitation on public and private events was “pandering” to businesses, and Ducey’s refusal to shutter bars and clubs means transmission rates will likely not start to decline anytime soon.

Dr. Monica Kraft, a pulmonary physician at the University of Arizona and Banner Medical in Tucson, paints an even more dire picture of what’s going on in southern Arizona where the Pima County Office of Emergency Management issued a public health advisory on December 9 that hospitals have reached capacity.

Things are so bad, Kraft said, that a patient of hers who did not have COVID-19 couldn’t receive treatment for an asthma attack because no rooms were available. And the pharmacy was backed up, so she couldn’t receive medication there as a backup option. 

“I’ve never been in a situation where the [emergency department] couldn’t do some very basic things because that place was so full. And it’s no fault of the physicians and nurses and staff –  it’s there wasn’t capacity,” she said.

That’s what really did her in, she said, adding that everybody on staff is worn so thin with how bad COVID-19 has been and it’s going to get even worse.

Arizona crushed its previous record of new cases reported in a single day on December 8 with more than 12,000. The five highest days on record have all come this month. 

Ducey announced on December 3 that money would go to hospitals to pay for staff, but the real question is where the staff will come from. 

Andrew Carroll
Andrew Carroll

Kraft and Carroll both acknowledged how something like this would have worked great in the summer months because at that point many states were not hitting a peak in cases and hospitalizations. But now, every state is getting slammed equally hard, which means doctors and nurses won’t be able to lend their services elsewhere.

“I think we have some traveling nurses that are able to come, but you can imagine everybody’s looking for the travelers,” Kraft said, adding that the travelers were saviors in the summer. “Now we fast forward a few months, and everyone’s searching at the same time so nobody really has staff to spare.”

Carroll said the workers that helped over the summer at this point have found jobs in the Midwest or in Texas where hospitals are “well under water” to keep with the tsunami metaphor that Arizona would not be able to get any out-of-state assistance. 

“The well has run dry I think, but I could be wrong. I’m hoping I’m wrong,” Carroll said.

Kraft did note that as bad as things are now, they could still get even worse if the crisis reaches a level where triage comes into play. 

Triage is a scorecard type system where patients are broken down into levels for who can receive a certain type of care. The worst level is when doctors get to decide who lives and who dies. It’s the worst case scenario hospitals have to think about during the pandemic, but Arizona has never reached that point and Kraft says her hospitals haven’t even scratched the surface in conversations about it.

“We don’t ever want to be in that position,” she said, adding that while there hasn’t been a discussion about triage yet, it’s something she and other doctors think about a lot. “We don’t have any plans to implement at this point. It’s on the table just because when you see trends like this, you sort of have to think about disaster medicine.”

A general view of the Pfizer Manufacturing plant in Puurs, Belgium, on Friday, Dec. 4, 2020. Pfizer and Moderna have developed vaccines for COVID-19, and Arizona will get as its share of both vaccines -- assuming both are given final approval this month by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use -- based on the fact that Arizona's population is about 2% of the nation. (AP Photo/Olivier Matthys)
A general view of the Pfizer Manufacturing plant in Puurs, Belgium, on Friday, Dec. 4, 2020. Pfizer and Moderna have developed vaccines for COVID-19, and Arizona will get as its share of both vaccines — assuming both are given final approval this month by the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use — based on the fact that Arizona’s population is about 2% of the nation. (AP Photo/Olivier Matthys)

Kraft told Arizona Capitol Times it would only reach that point if there are zero beds available for patients to fill and the numbers continue to go up. 

With no new mitigation efforts and no idea when Arizona will reach its winter peak, the vaccine appears to be the only light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s something that shouldn’t be the only piece of hope Arizonans have to minimize the impact, Humble said. 

Ducey announced on December 8 how the vaccine will be handled. The first shipments will arrive in Arizona sometime next week and will first be distributed in Maricopa and Pima counties. That will be the Pfizer vaccine, according to a Department of Health Services spokesman. 

The state is expecting 383,750 doses by the end of December and will prioritize “health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, educators and vulnerable populations.”

One week after the state’s two largest counties receive shipments of 47,000 doses to Maricopa and roughly 11,000 for Pima, all 15 counties, at least four tribes and some nursing facilities will receive doses, as well. Rural counties will receive shipments from Moderna, due to temperature storage capability. 

It’s important to note that receiving shipments of the vaccine is not the same thing as people being able to line up to receive it.

Kraft and Christ both said it’s looking like June will be when the virus will be “under control.” 

 

 

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