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Governor’s Office aligned with Senate Republicans on budget deal

Key Points:
  • Lawmakers divided on $270 million surplus spending strategy
  • House leaders have not had much to say about the budget
  • Budget deal expected before June 30 deadline

House and Senate members are taking another break while budget discussions continue, but Gov. Katie Hobbs says she expects to have a deal completed in the coming weeks. 

The House adjourned until June 16 after voting on a few bills on June 4, continuing their pattern of periodic floor activity while legislative leaders negotiate the budget with Hobbs. 

The Senate also plans to return on June 16, which gives lawmakers just two weeks to get a budget to Hobbs that she’ll sign before the end of the fiscal year. 

“I think we’ll do it before the end of the fiscal year,” Hobbs told reporters during a press conference on June 5. 

Legislative leaders are close to a budget deal, but the House and Senate appear to have some differences in how to spend the approximately $270 million surplus that budget analysts have signaled is available for lawmakers.

Hobbs said her office is aligned with Senate Republicans on the surplus with some differences, but noted House Republicans are not in agreement with the Senate regarding the funds.

“It is frustrating that I put out my budget in January, made my priorities clear, and here we are seemingly playing games, and the House and Senate still not being on the same page when they’ve had all this time to get there,” Hobbs said. 

House leaders have spoken little about the budget. 

Speaker Steve Montenegro, R-Goodyear, concluded during the June 4 floor session by informing members and the public that budget conversations are still ongoing, but didn’t elaborate further than that. 

Montenegro was not available for comment after the House finished its business.

A House GOP spokesman said the House could return sooner than the June 16 if a budget is agreed to before then.

The Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman, Sen. John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, confirmed to the Arizona Capitol Times that the House and Senate are divided on the budget. 

“This is the first time the House didn’t negotiate in tandem with the Senate, so I don’t know what they’re doing,” Kavanagh said. 

Kavanagh confirmed a plan reported by Axios that would divide the approximate $270 million nearly evenly between the Governor’s Office and both legislative chambers. 

The House and Senate would each receive about $90 million, while the governor gets more than $90 million. 

Budget analysts initially projected a $612 million surplus in January, but they attributed the lower estimate to ongoing federal uncertainty stemming from tariffs and tax cuts in April.

Axios reported on June 3 that the disagreement between the two chambers lies with how the Legislature would spend its share. Senate Republicans plan to take a similar approach from 2023, when both the House and Senate GOP caucuses designated a portion of funds for each of their members to spend as they saw fit. 

House Republicans don’t want to replicate 2023, where that budget was criticized for containing “pork” and personal projects for individual lawmakers. They instead want to pool their money together for larger infrastructure projects. 

Kavanagh said he’s not worried that the budget will be delayed and force a government shutdown. He said he’s confident the budget will be signed before June 30, with the Legislature adjourning sine die a day or two later. 

Chuck Coughlin, CEO of HighGround Consulting, called the 2023 budget process “a missed opportunity” for the state to address education, housing, water infrastructure and mental health care. 

“You dilute your ability to address those by a strategy which diminishes the ability of the state to address those problems by essentially handing out earmarked appropriations,” Coughlin said.

Last week, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge ruled that a $15 million appropriation to Prescott Rodeo Days in 2023 was unconstitutional. That appropriation was the result of Prescott-area lawmakers pooling the funds they were given in the 2023 budget process. 

Threat of possible recession looms over upcoming budget talks

Key Points:
  • Gov. Hobbs to start budget discussions soon
  • Uncertain economic conditions will impact budget talks
  • Hobbs won’t use rainy day funds to backfill cuts

Lawmakers averted a funding crisis for the Division of Developmental Disabilities, and with Gov. Katie Hobbs’ lifting of a bill moratorium, attention is now turning to other key priorities at the state Capitol. 

The major task for the Legislature is the state budget, which lawmakers are statutorily obligated to complete. House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Livingston, R-Peoria, said he hopes to get a budget agreement to Gov. Katie Hobbs’ desk and end the legislative session by Memorial Day.

The challenge for lawmakers this year will be uncertain economic conditions, and economists on the Legislature’s Financial Advisory Committee have warned that the Legislature should reduce spending, given the possibility of a recession that could occur in the near future. 

JLBC initially projected $612 million available to the Legislature in January after accounting for “ongoing one-time” funding items including school building repairs and employee health insurance.

That number has since lowered to $277 million due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs and reductions in the federal budget and taxes. 

Hobbs on April 30 also said she was worried about potential cuts to Medicaid funding from congressional Republicans who are seeking to reduce the federal deficit by $880 billion. 

Politico reported on April 29 that Congress is considering “per capita caps” on Medicaid funding in states that have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, which includes Arizona. 

Hobbs said that she isn’t willing to use the state’s $1.6 billion rainy day fund to try to backfill cuts to Medicaid and is prepared for “tough conversations” about the budget.

“We don’t have the capacity. No state has the capacity,” Hobbs said. “The rainy day fund isn’t going to cover all the cuts that we’re expecting from Congress, and that’s not what it’s there for. It’s not there to bail politicians out from bad decisions.”

During an April 17 Finance Advisory Committee meeting, JLBC’s Deputy Director Jack Brown stated that, while budget analysts aren’t predicting a recession because they expect moderate state revenue growth, they have seen recession scenario probabilities placed at about 40% to 60%.

If a recession were to hit, JLBC is projecting a $1.8 billion shortfall in 2027.

“When there’s economic uncertainty, the tendency is to pull back, not spend as much, not invest as much, until you get greater clarity on what is happening, which I think would be a wise position for state government to also have,” JLBC’s Director Richard Stavneak said during the FAC meeting. 

House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos said he was also worried about JLBC’s projections, which he said could affect costs to housing and health care. 

“It’s deeply concerning and it shows the awful impacts that Trump’s chaos is having in Arizona,” De Los Santos said. 

Budget talks hadn’t quite started with the Legislature on April 28, according to Hobbs, who said she was hoping to start budget discussions soon. House Speaker Steve Montenegro told the Arizona Capitol Times that lawmakers are going through the budgets of state agencies with JLBC’s latest projections. 

“Numbers are numbers, and, as a Legislature, we have a responsibility to make sure that we pass a budget,” Montenegro said. “We’re going through understanding where those final numbers are and where the state agencies are as well so that we can put forward a responsible and conservative budget.”

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