Three of the hottest Congressional races in the country marked a milestone in this year’s election cycle as candidates reported second quarter fundraising results to the Federal Elections Commission last week, and pundits from Arizona to Washington are scrutinizing the filings to see which candidates can separate themselves from the pack.
In the open Tucson-based 8th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring, both parties are optimistic about their candidates. Former Democratic State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords leads the fund raising pack, having pulled in over $290,000 between April 1 and July 1.
Ms. Giffords also spent more than any candidate — nearly $180,000 — leaving her with $588,000 cash on hand. That total is one reason why Democrats in Washington, D.C., are becoming more and more optimistic about the race: Ms. Giffords has more cash on hand than all the Republican candidates combined.
Ms. Giffords may need that money to overcome former local news anchor Patty Weiss’ name-recognition edge. Weiss, a Democrat, raised about $134,000 during the quarter and has $144,000 in the bank.
Republicans running to replace Mr. Kolbe are led by State Rep. Steve Huffman, who entered the race this quarter and raised nearly $240,000. He retained $226,000 after preliminary campaign set-up costs.
Conservative former State Rep. Randy Graf , who ran against Mr. Kolbe in a primary in 2004, raised just over $160,000, though he spent a hefty $136,000 and sits on a war chest of just $50,000.
Former Arizona Republican Party chair Mike Hellon raised $65,000, including a $40,000 personal loan, and retains $47,000 cash on hand, despite a $70,000 debt. Much of the money Mr. Hellon spent went to several early television ads, described as small purchases by those familiar with the district.
While the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) makes it a policy to stay out of competitive primaries, NRCC spokesman Ed Petru did note that “the front-runner in the race for resources at this point has an advantage over the others.”
Other Republicans are making their choice in the primary known in a less subtle fashion. The Business and Industry Political Action Committee is backing Mr. Huffman, as is Mr. Kolbe, despite the congressman’s long relationship with Mr. Hellon.
Mr. Graf, a hard-liner on immigration issues, has the backing of Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District Rep. Trent Franks and Rep. Tom Tancredo, the Colorado Republican who has made a name for himself on border security issues. Other immigration opponents, including the Minutemen and the Eagle Forum, and pro-life groups are backing Mr. Graf.
On the Democratic side, EMILY’s List, a national group committed to electing pro-choice Democratic women, and the Sierra Club each have gotten involved and are backing Ms.. Giffords, as is Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva. Labor groups have endorsed both Democrats.
Mitchell keeps
pace with Hayworth
Meanwhile, in the Scottsdale-based 5th Congressional District, Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth faces his first major challenger since the 1998 cycle. Mr. Hayworth has shown he’s taking a match up with former Democratic State Sen. Harry Mitchell very seriously, and raised more than $525,000 between April 1 and July 1, leaving him with over a million dollars in the bank.
Mr. Mitchell, though, kept pace and even bested Mr. Hayworth for the quarter, raising $565,000. He retains over $660,000 cash on hand.
Fundraising in the 5th District, which includes Tempe, parts of Phoenix and northeastern suburbs, is doubly important thanks to the costs of advertising in local media markets. Amy Walter, of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, thinks television ads could cost up to $300,000 a week in Phoenix. That, she says, presents problems for both candidates.
While Mr. Mitchell, thanks to his service in the Arizona Legislature, is well-known in his base of Tempe, the area makes up just a quarter of the district. He’ll have to work overtime to introduce himself to the other three-quarters. Mr. Hayworth, on the other hand, has to contend with an influx of new residents, to whom he must introduce himself.
Spokesmen for Mr. Mitchell and Mr. Hayworth both said the campaigns had yet to make a final decision on when to begin running ads.
In the end, Mr. Hayworth’s financial advantage may not be substantial enough to block out his opponent. “Will he have enough of a financial advantage to single-handedly drive the agenda in the race? I don’t know that he will,” says Ms. Walter. The race’s outcome, she suggests, may also hinge on the willingness of outside groups — the DCCC for Mr. Mitchell and pro-immigration groups like the Minutemen for Mr. Hayworth — to commit resources to the race.
Pederson, Kyl spend heavily
In the state’s race for U.S. Senate, wealthy businessman Jim Pederson continues to stay competitive financially, thanks to millions of dollars in checks he has written on his own behalf. Both Mr. Pederson and Sen. Jon Kyl have begun to spend heavily on the race, and both are running TV ads throughout the state.
Mr. Kyl maintains a hefty $7 million bank account, while Mr. Pederson, having out-spent Mr. Kyl in the second quarter, has a little over $1.7 million in the bank. In fact, Mr. Pederson’s $3.3 million spent was more than any other candidate running for Senate in the quarter. Only Sens. Rick Santorum, R-Penn., facing a tough battle for re-election, and Hillary Clinton, D-NY, widely thought to be ramping up her fundraising efforts and campaign team for a potential White House bid, spent over $3 million.
Democrats, hoping to expand the number of Senate seats seen as competitive, have placed their hopes in Mr. Pederson’s bid against the two-term senator. Most public polls, however, show Mr. Pederson trailing Mr. Kyl by double digits. Democrats need six seats to regain control of the upper chamber.
Next, candidates will file a pre-primary report on August 31, ahead of the Sept. 12 primary.