Facing a deficit of 10 seats in the U.S. Senate, Democrats have been scouring the national landscape for seats within winnable reach in order to retake the upper chamber.
Democrats have settled on five of the six seats they would need to take control, and Arizona’s GOP Sen. Jon Kyl holds one of three seats that Democrats hope can become the elusive number six.
The party is already spending money heavily in the hopes of knocking off the most vulnerable Republican senators, many of whom face tough obstacles in their home states.
Along with five seats Democrats call their top targets — those of Republican Sens. Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania; Jim Talent, Missouri; Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island; Mike DeWine, Ohio; and Conrad Burns, Montana — national party leaders are also hoping to put a bulls eye on at least one of three other seats up this year.
The Democratic Party thinks Arizona is among those three, along with Tennessee, where Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is retiring and Virginia, where Sen. George Allen faces Ronald Reagan’s one-time Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb. While Democratic Rep. Harold Ford, running in Tennessee, is seen by many as the best campaigner Democrats have recruited to run in the three states, Arizona’s Democratic candidate, Jim Pederson, could find himself in a better position to win than Mr. Ford.
National Democrats are determined to make the Arizona race as close as possible. Calling the seat “one of the more competitive” in the country, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spokesman Phil Singer said Arizona “could be the seat that puts us over the top.”
An expensive fight
In anticipation of an expensive fight for Mr. Kyl’s seat, both parties are beginning to divert massive resources to the state. The DSCC has reportedly reserved as much as $1.64 million in television ads for the last four weeks of the race. Brian Walton, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), refused to comment on potential reservation of television time, but earlier this month, Mr. Kyl was the beneficiary of radio and television ads run by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce as part of a $10 million national campaign.
The battle lines have already been drawn. Mr. Singer, the DSCC spokesman, cited Mr. Kyl’s role as chair of the Republican Policy Committee — the fourth-ranking position in his caucus — and declared that Mr. Kyl “has done more for the lobbyists on K Street than he has for the people of Arizona.”
Mr. Walton, on the other hand, noted that Mr. Pederson has already donated more than $4 million to his own campaign. While the Democrat still trails Mr. Kyl in cash on hand — Mr. Kyl finished the second quarter of the year with more than $7.1 million — Mr. Pederson was one of just four challengers in the country to outspend the incumbent. Top Republicans also claim that Mr. Pederson’s self-funding is evidence of trouble his campaign has faced raising money.
Both candidates have their positives as well. Mr. Kyl was named one of the Senate’s 10 best members by Time magazine in April for his work forming the Senate’s agenda. In addition, the high-profile role he continues to play on immigration reform could bolster his lead in a state in which that issue is seen as most important.
Mr. Pederson’s experience as a businessman and developer are seen as his biggest assets. Though his campaign got off to a rough start, including the departure of two campaign managers, Mr. Pederson “has grown a lot as a candidate,” says the DSCC’s Mr. Singer.
National issues could affect the race, as well. Republicans around the country could be hurt this year by President Bush’s sagging approval ratings, and Arizona is no exception. According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPNX-TV earlier this month, just 43 percent of Arizonans said they approved of Mr. Bush’s job, while 53 percent disapproved.
The same survey showed 53 percent of Arizonans approving of Mr. Kyl’s job as a senator, while 63 percent approved of the job done by the state’s senior senator, Republican John McCain. In fact, many Republicans talking about Mr. Kyl’s campaign stress his close relationship with Mr. McCain, while comparing Mr. Pederson to national Democrats unpopular in the state, such as Massachusetts Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.
Mr. Kyl and Mr. Pederson have each benefited from help from national figures. Mr. Kyl got fundraising help from President Bush in late 2005, as well as First Lady Laura Bush earlier this year. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have also lent assistance, while Vice President Dick Cheney has visited the state twice to stump for Mr. Kyl and raise funds for the Arizona Republican Party.
Mr. Pederson, meanwhile, has received visits from former President Bill Clinton in early June, an event that netted the campaign about $500,000, while Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., stopped in the state earlier this month.
The NRSC’s Mr. Walton, while expressing optimism about Mr. Kyl’s chances, says the committee believes the race will tighten in the closing months. If it does, still more outside money is likely to pour into the race, and thanks to Mr. Kyl’s massive campaign war chest and Mr. Pederson’s ability to self-fund his bid, it may be up to Arizona voters to decide which party ends up with control of the Senate in January.