When the time came more than a year ago for the Republicans to start thinking about who could be the one to beat the state’s popular Democrat governor, a lot of names were run up the rumor pole:
Joe Arpaio, Arthur “Art” Arvizu, Ken Bennett, Roy Birnbaum, Ted Carpenter, Maria Cordova, Jamie Coulter, Jan Smith Flórez, Don Goldwater, Charles Goodson, John Greene, Kenneth “Mike” Harris, J.D. Hayworth, Barry Hess, Richard Carmona, Jim Kress, Scott Malcomson, Len Munsil, Janet Napolitano, Russell Pearce, Mary Peters, Randy Pullen, Teresa Ottesen, Marilyn Quayle, Johnnie Robinson III, Rick Romley, Mike Ross, Dave Thompson, Gary Tupper and Robert Winn.
In the end, 19 people actually filed for governor, but only seven will be on the Sept. 12 primary ballot — the governor, five Republicans and one Libertarian hoping to take her on in the Nov. 7 general election.
Ms. Napolitano is unopposed in her party, as is Libertarian Barry Hess in his.
Near the end of the campaign, observers and pollsters say the GOP contest has come down to a horse race between Don Goldwater and Len Munsil, with the other candidates furlongs behind.
It’s a battle of name ID versus a well-oiled conservative organization, founded by a man who said God has played a role in previous state elections and influenced him to run for governor.
“The real question is: Will the Goldwater name trump Munsil’s organization and ideological soldiers≠” said pollster Bruce Merrill of ASU’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism. “It’s going to be close.”
Mr. Goldwater, nephew of Arizona political legend Barry Goldwater, says he is his own man and he has predicted he will be the next governor.
“Barry Goldwater was a big name, and I respect that name and I try to live up to that name, but Don Goldwater’s running the race, not Barry Goldwater,” he said in an interview with Arizona Capitol Times. “I’m the one who’s going to beat Governor Napolitano.”
Mr. Merrill says that while voter turnout — which is expected to be light for the primary — will have more bearing on the outcome, the Goldwater name will be a significant factor.
“I don’t think there is a question that a positive good name is an advantage,” he said. “The question is how much of an advantage.”
On the other hand, Earl de Berge of the Behavioral Research Center says the Goldwater name is not a positive among old-time Republicans, who viewed Barry Goldwater as a moderate to liberal Republican, accusing his party in his later years of becoming radicalized.
That assessment of the GOP is echoed by Gilbert contractor Gary Tupper, who entered the gubernatorial primary after what he said were his negative experiences with state agencies. He is pro-choice and pro-gay rights.
“I separate myself on the issues, especially with Len on the religious right,” he said. “We hear from time to time that people are scared — literally scared — of Len Munsil and the possibility that he might be the governor, that he would bestow on Arizona his particular beliefs. People want religious freedom in Arizona and that needs to be protected.”
Mr. Tupper said he would not support Mr. Munsil if he becomes the nominee.
Pollsters: Light turnout favors Munsil
Mr. de Berge and Mr. Merrill say an overall light turnout, with heavier concentration in conservative districts, favors Mr. Munsil.
Mr. Munsil is founder of the pro-life, pro-family Center for Arizona Policy, a $1.8 million lobbying organization, with a large network of family value advocates and fundraising prowess.
“The lower the turnout, the more likely it will help Len Munsil,” Mr. Merrill said, simply because the older, more conservative, religious right people always vote in primaries and have a disproportionate impact.”
Munsil launched his campaign last spring, but not against his fellow Republicans.
“I am really focused on Governor Napolitano,” he said in an interview with Arizona Capitol Times. “Everybody’s got to evaluate their campaign the way that they want to, but the way I evaluate it is it’s very difficult to turn from a primary election on Sept. 12 and then in three weeks before early balloting, focus on the governor… we’ll let the people in the Republican Party decide which of us makes the most compelling case against Governor Napolitano as opposed to against each other.”
Mr. de Berge says past polling indicated that many Republicans were disinterested in the gubernatorial primary. Among those Republicans who indicated a preference, Mr. Goldwater was maintaining a double-digit lead over Mr. Munsil, according to more recent surveys, but a majority remained undecided.
Polls have consistently shown that Mr. Tupper and Scottsdale investment banker Mike Harris have not been able to get traction in their campaigns.
Republican Steve Moore a Mesa real estate agent and loan officer, will appear on the ballot as a write-in.
And polling has consistently shown Ms. Napolitano beating all comers in November.
Rhetoric could hurt Goldwater
Mr. Goldwater has been a hardliner on illegal immigration, calling for construction of a wall along the border with Mexico and putting captured illegal immigrants to work building it. While the majority of Arizonans want something done about border security, Mr. Goldwater’s rhetoric on the issue might hurt him, Mr. Merrill says.
“He’s been using terms that are inflammatory,” he said. Mr. Goldwater has called for placing arrested immigrants in work camps. His hard stand on immigration has been cited as a reason Sen. John McCain has endorsed Mr. Munsil.
Mr. Munsil has called for beefing up border security with federal and state resources, adding, “Nobody wants to see anyone die in the desert. Frankly, one of the reasons to secure the border is to make it clear to folks to not even attempt crossing illegally.”
Mr. Tupper said on immigration, “When the executive branch of government doesn’t do its job, as it’s failed for so many years, the Legislature has a tendency to want to make new laws to compensate for that failure, and that happens here in Arizona all the time.
“How ‘bout if we just registered everybody who is here and enforce the federal laws that we already have. Why does it have to be a pathway to citizenship≠ Why is amnesty even in the question≠” he asked.
Mr. Harris called for “troops on the border until the crisis is contained,” a Department of Public Safety “strike force,” and said that businesses should conduct a census of illegal alien employees in Arizona and report to the Department of Labor.
“In the perfect world, send them back and make them enter legally,” he said.
Mr. Harris, whose campaign has been plagued by personal and financial problems, says he entered the race to fill a vacuum.
“What got me into the race in the first place was I kept watching television and waiting for someone with a great name to come forward,” he said. “You heard names like Marilyn Quayle, Rich Carmona, J.D. Hayworth, even Mary Peters. And nobody stepped up.
“And you had to look at the field that was presenting themselves. You had Len Munsil, Don Goldwater, Jan Smith Flõrez and Gary Tupper. And you have to look at that field and ask, ‘Are any of these electable≠’”
At press time the afternoon of Sept. 7, the Citizens Clean Elections Commission approved $80,000 in matching funds for Mr. Munsil as a result of a “push poll” conducted by an unknown source that asked voters if their vote would be affected if they knew certain things about Mr. Munsil.
“Would it affect your vote if you knew he had an illegitimate child≠” was one question, followed by “Would it affect your vote if you knew Len Munsil said the terrorist attack of 9-11 was an act of God≠”
Mr. Munsil has acknowledged that his first child was conceived out of wedlock. His statement about 9-11, as reported Aug. 4 by Arizona Capitol Times, was “While I don’t believe God caused the terrorist attacks on the United States… He clearly allowed them.”
Ms. Napolitano, who has declined to comment about the Republican candidates for governor, has drawn endorsements from prominent Republicans, including former Attorney General Grant Woods, lobbyists Wes Gullet and Marty Shultz and former university regent Jack Jewett.
Pollster de Berge says he yearns for yesteryear when who would win elections was a question right up to election night.
Pollsters, he said, have spoiled the mystery.