With four moderates in its caucus just two years ago and a 17-13 partisan split, there were no assurances Senate Republican leadership would power through its conservative agenda.
On several crucial votes in 2004, including budget bills, moderates Slade Mead, Linda Binder, Carolyn Allen and Toni Hellon forced leadership to spend more money on education, health care and other social programs, at times creating bitter feuds within the caucus.
Republicans picked up one seat in the 2004 election, but Mr. Mead was defeated in the primary and Ms. Binder retired.
Only Ms. Allen and Ms. Hellon remain in the moderate camp, and they are targets of the conservative wing of the party, which aims to rid the Senate and the House of what they call “RINOs,”— Republicans in name only — and create what they hope would be a veto-proof Legislature.
Moderates, on the other hand, are hoping to pick up a Senate seat in the primary — the one being vacated by Senate President Ken Bennett in District 1, where Rep. Tom O’Halleran of Sedona faces conservative newcomer William Stoll of Camp Verde.
Whatever the outcome of the primary and general elections, the Senate in January will swear in at least six new senators to replace Republicans Mr. Bennett and Dean Martin, and Democrats Linda Aguirre, Bill Brotherton, Robert Cannell and Edward Ableser.
District 8
The feature bout in the conservatives’ battle to completely reign over the Senate, however, is in District 8 between Ms. Allen and Rep. Colette Rosati.
Observers say that despite the prediction of a light voter turnout for the primary that could help Ms. Rosati, Ms. Allen is too well financed, too well known in the high-middle to upper-class parts of the district and too experienced in lawmaking and politics to lose the primary.
With a $50,000 carry-over from previous campaigns, Ms. Allen’s coffers reached nearly $140,000 this year, thought to be a record amount for a state Senate race.
Ms. Allen, 68, chairman of the Senate Health Committee, says the bottom line for voters is her accomplishments over 12 years in the Legislature, adding that Ms. Rosati hasn’t accomplished anything in her four years in the House.
Despite a 19-point lead last month, according to her polling, Ms. Allen says the margin will be reduced by Election Day, in part because Ms. Rosati could pick up some coattail support from backers of gubernatorial candidate Len Munsil.
Ms. Rosati, 47, has declined to be interviewed by Arizona Capitol Times, either by phone or in person.
The winner of the District 8 contest will face Democrat Dan Oseran, a former prosecutor with the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office.
The district covers most of Scottsdale north of Thomas Road and includes Fountain Hills. Republican registrations outnumber Democrats and others 2-1.
District 1
The O’Halleran-Stoll race, which will be won or lost in Prescott, the district’s population center, was significantly changed when conservative Prescott businesswoman Elise Townsend withdrew last month, citing family reasons and rumors that her construction company was in financial trouble. She denied the rumors.
The primary is a toss-up, district insiders say. It also is a toss-up regarding endorsements, with Prescott’s Daily Courier supporting Mr. O’Halleran for his expertise on rural water issues, and Mr. Bennett from Prescott supporting Mr. Stoll, a Camp Verde developer and Baptist pastor.
“Will [Stoll] will be a more conservative, productive voice in the caucus than Tom will, Mr. Bennett said. “I have a lot of respect for Tom, but he almost has gotten the relationship in the caucus to where a majority of the caucus is antagonistic toward him, and maybe vice versa.”
Mr. O’Halleran, 60, wrote in the Prescott newspaper he has had a positive impact on the House.
“I can have even more of an impact in the Senate because it has half as many members, he said. “My voice will be heard more, my vote will be needed more. Senators tend to work more cooperatively because they know that.”
Mr. Stoll, who did not reveal his age, wrote, “For my race, I’m the conservative choice.”
Mr. Bennett says the race will be tight. “I think it’s going to be a neck-and-neck thing.”
The Daily Courier said William Stoll…. “certainly says all the right things in terms of conservative philosophy and shows a bit of a maverick streak in pushing more spending for education.
“…O’Halleran has been the legislative brain trust on water and forestry issues and has stood up for other issues vital to rural Arizona,” the newspaper stated.
The winner will face Democrat Jo Kelleher of Chino Valley in the general election.
District 1 registered Republicans hold an approximate 20 percentage-point edge over Democrats and others.
District 26
In southern Arizona’s District 26 Republican primary, Ms. Hellon, 60 is challenged by conservative Al Melvin, 61, a retired Naval Reserve captain.
Mr. Melvin raised $56, 000 for his campaign.
Like Ms. Allen, Ms. Hellon carried over a lot of money from her previous campaigns and accumulated $125,000 this year — expecting a challenge from Rep. Steve Huffman. Mr. Huffman dropped his filing for Senate and is a candidate to replace Congressman Jim Kolbe.
Hellon is a prominent name in Pima County politics. Ms. Hellon has served three Senate terms, and her former husband, Mike, is a past president of the Pima County Republican Party and also a candidate for Congress.
It will be difficult for Mr. Melvin to overcome the Hellon name and her campaign bankroll.
“After six years as an elected official, the voters already know more about me than my family does,” she stated in response to an Arizona Capitol Times questionnaire.
Mr. Melvin said, “I am a true conservative. I support every plank of the Republican National Party’s platform.”
Illegal immigration has dominated politics in Pima and other southern Arizona counties this election cycle.
Both Ms. Hellon and Mr. Melvin support the deployment of National Guard troops to the border, but Ms. Hellon states a more moderate position.
“The state must demand enforcement of current laws and should give local law enforcement the flexibility in how they protect the residents of their communities,” she said.
“I do not have the solution to this problem or an answer for whether or how we can close the borders in a country that was founded on open borders,” Ms. Hellon said.
In addition to the National Guard at the border, Mr. Melvin supports “the possibility of a border fence and the creation of an entity called the Arizona Border Police to aid with enforcement.”
Ms. Hellon, chairman of the Senate K-12 Education Committee, is pro-choice and against the gay marriage ballot proposition. If re-elected, she would be termed out in 2008, adding she would like to see term limits repealed, “but not until I am termed out.”
Says Mr. Melvin, “Term limits are a good thing.”
The winner will face Democrat Charlene Pesquiera of Oro Valley, a criminal justice instructor.
Republican registrations in the district at last count were 42 percent compared with 31 percent for Democrats and 26 percent for other registrations.
Conclusions
Sens. Allen and Hellon will be re-elected; O’Halleran-Stoll race too close to call.
There are contested Senate primaries in three other districts, but the outcomes will not change the balance of political philosophies.
Conservative Republicans Reps. Ted Carpenter and Pamela Gorman are seeking Sen. Dean Martin’s seat in District 6. Mr. Martin is a candidate for state treasurer.
In District 22, Republican Joseph Bedgood of Gilbert is after Sen. Thayer Verschoor’s Senate seat.
And in the only Democrat primary, Sen. Paula Aboud is fending off a challenge from Rep. Ted Downing.