The House of Representatives of the 48th Legislature will look a little different than that of the current Legislature, as nearly a quarter of the seats are being vacated by lawmakers who are running for the Senate, seeking a higher office or retiring.
And that doesn’t take into account the incumbents who invariably get knocked off by challengers each election cycle.
Though there will be a palpable turnover at the House, it is unlikely there will be as many surprises as there were two years ago, when four moderate Republican and two Democrat incumbents were defeated largely by a group of political newcomers.
The story in 2004 was the defeat of the moderate Republicans who, just a few months earlier, had bucked their leadership to work with House Democrats to pass a budget that the Senate would approve. Thinning their ranks even more, a fifth moderate Republican lost to a more conservative Republican in the November general election.
Though conservative members of the Republican Party are actively working to defeat the moderates in a number of districts this year, the incumbents have told Arizona Capitol Times they feel very good about their chances for re-election heading into the Sept. 12 primary.
Instead, this year’s most intriguing races are to see who will replace the departed lawmakers and how that will affect the balance of power in the Republican caucus.
District 1
In District 1, Rep. Tom O’Halleran — one of the more outspoken moderate Republicans — is running for the Senate. District observers say Rep. Lucy Mason, also a moderate Republican, is pulling for centrist Andy Tobin over fellow challengers Noel Campbell and Brian Detwiler, the latter of whom is the most conservative candidate in the race.
The seat is possibly more important to moderate Republicans than any other, as replacing Mr. O’Halleran with a more conservative lawmaker would be a boon for caucus conservatives. To that end, House Speaker Jim Weiers has made campaign appearances on behalf of Mr. Detwiler and reportedly endorsed him for the open seat.
District 6 has two open seats, as Rep. Ted Carpenter is term-limited and running for the Senate, while Rep. Pamela Gorman is also seeking the Senate seat after only one term in the House. The four candidates seeking the two representative nominations in the primary range from moderate — Clark Thomas — to very conservative — Carl Seel — with the tandem of Doug Clark and Sam Crump somewhere in the middle.
Both outgoing incumbents were conservative Republicans, so a victory by Mr. Thomas would be a boost for moderate Republicans. There are no Democrats in the race, so the two highest vote-getters in the primary will have no opposition in the general election.
District 8
The greatest potential loss for conservative Republicans is in District 8, where Rep. Colette Rosati is running for the Senate. Ms. Rosati is well known for being one of the most conservative members of the House and her departure opens the door for a pair of more moderate candidates to replace her and serve with Rep. Michele Reagan, a socially moderate Republican.
Both Dr. Jim Burke, a former Scottsdale councilman and the chief medical officer for Scottsdale Healthcare, and Travis Junion, a public relations consultant, would give the moderates in the House another voice and their election would be seen by many as taking back a district that has historically elected a more moderate brand of Republican.
There are a pair of conservative Republicans on the ballot: John Kavanagh has been endorsed by Mr. Weiers and Rep. Russell Pearce, R-18, and is a champion of illegal immigration reform, while Carolyn Schoenrock was encouraged to run by Ms. Rosati.
The winners of the Republican primary will go on to face two Democrat challengers in November, but the district has more than twice as many Republicans as Democrats, giving the Republicans an almost insurmountable advantage at the polls.
House Majority Leader Steve Tully is retiring from his District 11 seat and a trio of challengers is running to replace him. The more conservative challengers are Adam Driggs, the son of former Phoenix Mayor John Driggs, and Don Hesselbrock, a longtime activist in the Maricopa County and state Republican parties. Devin Slayton, the most moderate of the three, is endorsed by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund and hopes to capitalize on a sizeable homosexual community in the district.
District 26
The other primary race with an open seat that could change the climate of the House of Representatives is in District 26, where moderate Rep. Steve Huffman is term limited out of office. The Tucson-area district has long been a stronghold for moderate Republicans, though David Jorgenson, a self-described “Reagan Republican” is hoping to join the Legislature. His opponents are incumbent Rep. Pete Hershberger, Lisa Lovallo and former Rep. Carol Somers, all three of whom would be considered moderate Republicans.
If Mr. Jorgenson wins the seat, it would be a significant gain for conservative House Republicans and a devastating blow to the moderates.