The District 24 Senate race between Reps. Russ Jones and Amanda Aguirre is a “dead heat,” a Democratic Party official says.
“It’s going to go right down to the wire,” said Bill Scheel, Democrat legislative campaign director, referring to recent internal polling. “We think it will be the most competitive Senate seat in the state.”
Not only is this southwestern Arizona race competitive, but if Mr. Jones wins, it could give Republicans an even larger majority. They currently hold an 18-12 margin over Democrats.
An on-then-off-then-on again candidate, Mr. Jones says he is feeling good about his chances of becoming that 19th Republican in the state Senate. He adds, however, he is girding for an 11th-hour attack from Democrats, describing the atmosphere in his race against Ms. Aguirre last week as “the calm before the storm.”
Shortly after his comment, Republicans sent out a mailer chastising Ms. Aguirre for voting against a bill that would have permitted local law enforcement to round up illegal immigrants. Ms. Aguirre also was the target of accusations she was behind a lawsuit that attempted to kick Mr. Jones off the primary election ballot.
Superior Court Judge Kenneth Fields ruled that Mr. Jones was not acting as a nominating petition circulator on three days he claimed to be, even though he signed the petitions as the circulator. Judge Fields ruled that Mr. Jones committed petition forgery by doing so and ruled him off the ballot.
But the Arizona Supreme Court disagreed, ruling that Mr. Jones should be on the ballot.
He says that based on his run for the House two years ago and the petition allegations this year, Democrats will come after him closer to the election, when he won’t have time to obtain additional public funds and fight back.
“I can’t imagine they are through with me,” he said. “People have learned you can play the system,” Mr. Jones said, referring to 11th-hour attacks on candidates through independent expenditures. “I suspect they’ll do it this time.”
Both candidates are publicly funded.
Bygones
Mr. Jones says things got pretty nasty in Yuma over his court case, but he and Ms. Aguirre say it’s no longer an issue.
“Once I was done with the Supreme Court, it was not an issue with me,” Mr. Jones said. “The Democrats are trying to make it an issue… but there’s been a backlash.”
Ms. Aguirre said, “I don’t think so. That’s pretty much behind us.”
Ms. Aguirre has denied being the one who stirred the pot on the ballot issue. She says a Democrat poll showed that “some say it doesn’t matter, and some say Mr. Jones lied to us.”
Jeffrey Gautreaux, who is covering the race for the Yuma Sun, says people are still talking about the ballot fight.
“Everyone says that Amanda will pay for whatever part she had in the suit,” he said.
The two candidates are vying for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Robert Cannell, who is retiring from the Legislature at the end of the year.
“Amanda got hurt a little by that, but they’re both strong, good legislators,” said Mr. Cannell, who is staying neutral in the race.
Mr. Jones said that although U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson is no longer head of the state Democratic Party, he’s still calling the shots.
“We are going to campaign hard,” said the Democrats’ Mr. Scheel. “We think the campaign needs to be a positive one. We don’t know what will happen the last two weeks.”
Mr. Jones says he’s feeling good that he will beat Ms. Aguirre, partially based on the 810 more votes he received in the primary than she did in a district with 7 percent more Democrat registrations and what he says was a Democrat turnout that was 7 percent higher this year than in 2004.
He complained that Ms. Aguirre is being disingenuous by posting signs that say “Keep Amanda in the Senate.”
Both candidates were unopposed in the primary election.
“If [Republicans get negative], we’re more than happy to draw the contrast between Jones and Aguirre,” Mr. Scheel said.
Growth, immigration are issues
District observers say immigration and a 10 percent annual growth rate are the chief issues in the campaign.
In the southwest corner of the state, Yuma is influenced by a population of 2.5 million people within a 60-mile radius, which takes in California and Mexican communities, Mr. Jones said.
Ms. Aguirre, who was recently appointed to two state homeland security committees, says she supports increased border security and has been working with the Border Patrol on issues.
“I am very much for sanctioning businesses that knowingly hire immigrants,” she said.
Ms. Aguirre said she supports a guest worker program and the current visa program that permits Mexican immigrants to cross the border to work the crops and return home at night.
“This allows farmers to hire them and work in the fields,” she said.
Ms. Aguirre says much farmland has been purchased for development, and an adequate water supply is a concern in the district.
House Speaker Jim Weiers appointed Ms. Aguirre to the state Department of Homeland Security Coordinating Council, formerly the Governor’s Homeland Security Council, where she served as the only legislative member.
She also will serve on the Joint Legislative Committee on Homeland Security as the only woman and only Democrat on the committee.
Candidates differ on taxes, education, gay rights
Mr. Jones said he and Ms. Aguirre got along well in the House, but they differ on immigration, health care, education, taxation and gay rights.
“We have a lot more differences than people realize,” he said.
Mr. Jones said he favors a guest worker program, but differs with his opponent on ways to secure the border.
He said he will not be a rubber stamp for the hard core conservatives in the Senate.
“If you’re looking at the spectrum of Republicans, I put myself in the middle,” he said. “I’m right, but not far right. I’m a rural Republican. I’ve had quite a few issues this last two years — and I’m sure it will continue — with a propensity by some Republican legislators who want to micromanage lower forms of government and apply a one-size-fits-all solution.”
Mr. Jones says the district’s balanced economy with agriculture, military facilities, winter tourism and attractiveness for California businesses looking to escape over-regulation and high taxes are responsible for a growth rate that is surpassing the capabilities of its infrastructure, especially highways.
He said the Legislature has failed to adequately fund the transportation needs of rural counties. “We’re just happy to get the roads sealed or paved or reconditioned…”