The pace is chaotic as the final 20-something news cycles of the 2006 midterm elections wind down, with a new October surprise erupting almost every week.
As campaign season enters its final three-week sprint, at least one Republican congressional campaign in Arizona could be sweating heavily, and Democrats believe they have another opportunity to pick up the seats they need to take back Congress.
Recent revelations of inappropriate e-mails and Internet chats between a Florida congressman and former House pages are the latest piece of bad news for Republicans.
The behavior of former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley — who resigned when confronted with the lurid chats –is only a part of the scandal. In recent days it has come to light that Republican leaders knew of Mr. Foley’s inappropriate behavior for several years before ABC News published the story late last month, and last weekend a spokesperson for retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., confirmed to The Washington Post that Mr. Kolbe had known of one contact between Mr. Foley and a page in 2001.
The scandal has had a measurable effect on national races, say pollsters. “We haven’t seen necessarily Republican interest or intensity drop off,” says Washington-based GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio. “We have seen a marked increase in Democrat interest and intensity.”
Mr. Fabrizio notes several national polls showing big Democratic leads among likely voters, and because of those big leads, “a lot more races have been thrown into play.”
A new survey by the Pew Research Center and The Associated Press probing voter interest confirms Mr. Fabrizio’s fears. The poll shows an increasing number of Democrats are set to step into the voting booth on Nov. 7 — 59 percent of Democrats say they have given a lot of thought to the election, while just 48 percent of Republicans say the same. Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut says that number is the reverse of 1994, when 50 percent of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats said they had thought about the races a lot by early October.
The poll also shows Democrats are more excited to vote than Republicans — 51 percent of Democrats say they are more enthusiastic to head to the polls than normal, while just 33 percent of Republicans say the same. “If that excitement translates into the kind of turnout that it usually does,” said Mr. Kohut, “it would mean that Democrats would match, if not exceed, Republican turnout, and that’s unusual.”
While top political pundits in Washington, D.C., believe up to three Arizona congressional seats may be in play, both national parties are focusing most of their financial resources on Rep. J.D. Hayworth’s 5th Congressional District.
Mr. Hayworth faces former state Sen. Harry Mitchell, a Democrat, and while Mr. Hayworth has sailed to victory in recent campaigns, polls show the race to be much closer than the Republican might like.
Whether or not the seat is in play, according to Mr. Fabrizio, the Republican pollster, depends considerably on the strength of the Democratic challenger. “If there’s any life in the Democrat challenger, if he’s had any money to run a campaign, then that should be a red flag for the Republican incumbent.”
Observer: Mitchell a match compared to Hayworth’s previous foes
One top Arizona Republican strategist calls Mr. Mitchell “a much better candidate” than previous foes of Mr. Hayworth, while another GOP consultant thinks the race is “neck and neck” and calls Mr. Mitchell “an extremely popular statesmanlike figure.”
Mr. Mitchell campaign’s fundraising numbers do look viable: Having raised $900,000 since beginning his run, Mr. Mitchell pulled in more than $300,000 in the third quarter of this year. In reports due to the Federal Elections Commission on Oct. 15, Mr. Mitchell will report $553,000 cash on hand.
Mr. Hayworth’s campaign will post a stronger quarter, though, with over $480,000 raised. That leaves the incumbent with $1.35 million in the bank for the final sprint.
The red flag has been raised in Mr. Hayworth’s camp. After fundraisers with top Republicans from around the country, Mr. Hayworth will hold a benefit headlined by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich next week.
While most in Republican circles remain publicly confident of a Hayworth victory, some admit that the situation is gloomy. The GOP consultant says the Foley scandal will have a drastic effect: “Those moderate Republican votes that decide elections, they’re going to vote for a change. It’s not a vote yes for Harry Mitchell, but it’s a vote to change the status quo.”
The congressman seems susceptible to developments beyond his control — the Foley scandal, President Bush’s growing unpopularity and a deteriorating situation in Iraq top the list — but he retains the confidence of a number of the state’s top Republicans. “It’s not the greatest year for Republicans,” said the Republican strategist, while maintaining that internal polls for other campaigns show Mr. Hayworth up by between five and six percentage points.
A further drop in Republican turnout, though, could prove decisive. “The question is whether Republican morale will sink further as a result of the Foley scandal,” says Pew’s Mr. Kohut. “Only time will tell.”
National Democrats have targeted two of the state’s other congressional districts. In the 8th District race to replace Mr. Kolbe, national Republicans have all but admitted defeat. Both public and private polls show former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat, easily defeating former state Rep. Randy Graf, a Republican.
The outlook is better for Republican Rep. Rick Renzi, who faces attorney Ellen Simon, a Democrat, in his quest for a third two-year term. While those who study congressional races say a Simon win is possible, they emphasize that she remains a long shot.