A new statewide poll conducted by Northern Arizona University finds supporters of a proposed state constitutional amendment on marriage apparently outnumbering opponents.
The results of the Grand Canyon State Poll released Oct. 17 by the university’s Social Research Laboratory stand in sharp contrast to those of an Arizona State University poll, conducted in late August that found Proposition 107 trailing.
The two polls’ descriptions of Proposition 107 were significantly different, and NAU pollster Fred Solop said differences in poll question language can affect results.
The NAU poll, conducted Oct. 11-16 and based on randomly dialed telephone interviews with registered voters who described themselves as likely to vote Nov. 6, found 51 percent of those surveyed supporting the measure, 42 percent opposed and 7 percent undecided, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
While the NAU poll found the measure ahead by 9 percentage points, the ASU poll found it trailing by 17.
The NAU poll’s question said the measure would amend the Arizona Constitution to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman and also bar state and local governments from giving legal status like marriage to unmarried people.
The ASU poll’s question said the measure would amend the Constitution to ban same-sex marriage and bar governmental entities from providing employee benefits to unmarred partners.
“I’m not surprised that it shows us winning,” Proposition 107 proponent Cathi Herrod said of the NAU poll. “There’s a dramatic difference in how the question was worded.”
Similar measures have been approved in other states and the ASU poll’s wording suggested that governments wouldn’t give any benefits to unmarried workers, said Ms. Herrod, president of the Scottsdale-based Center for Arizona Policy.
Mr. Solop said he tried to mirror the proposition’s wording in the NAU poll question because voters will see that wording on the ballot. Though voters will be exposed to advertising and other descriptions of the measure’s effects, it’s difficult to quantify how much is absorbed, he said.
Mr. Solop noted that the results of the NAU poll conducted in October resembled those of one conducted by NAU in March.
Efforts to obtain comment from Proposition 107 opponents were not immediately successful.
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