National Democrats, scrambling to take advantage of Republican misfortune and woes, have singled out attorney Ellen Simon in an elite program designed to boost congressional candidates around the country.
Ms. Simon, who is challenging Republican Rep. Rick Renzi in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, has been named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red-to-Blue” program, which assists candidates with fundraising, media and campaign strategy.
Ms. Simon is the third Democratic challenger in Arizona to be added to the program, joining Gabrielle Giffords, running in the state’s open 8th District, and Harry Mitchell, bidding to oust Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the 5th District.
As voter anger over the war in Iraq, President Bush’s job performance and corruption scandals in Washington threatens to topple Republican control in Congress, the 1st District race between Mr. Renzi and Ms. Simon has emerged as another top opportunity for Democrats.
That Mr. Renzi faces a difficult election should not be a surprise, considering the makeup of his expansive 1st District. Redrawn after the 2000 Census, the district covers more than half of the state. More than one in five district residents are Native American, and almost as many are Hispanic, both heavily Democratic constituencies. The district only narrowly favored President Bush over his Democratic challengers in 2004 and 2000.
Democrats came within 6,000 votes of stealing the seat in 2002, and despite a well-funded, well-known challenger in 2004 — former Flagstaff Mayor Paul Babbitt — Mr. Renzi won handily, with 59 percent of the vote.
This year, it seems that no Republican is safe from a rising wave of voter anger, and that has put Mr. Renzi in the crosshairs.
That wasn’t always the case. “Earlier, it looked like [Mr. Renzi would] get away with avoiding a serious challenge yet again,” according to Amy Walter, a House race expert with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “But the political climate is enough to trip him up — even without a top-notch opponent.”
While Mr. Renzi has been able to outspend both of his previous opponents nearly 2-to-1, Ms. Simon has contributed some of her substantial wealth to her own campaign. Final pre-election filings with the Federal Election Commission show Ms. Simon raised over $1.2 million for her bid, including a $700,000 personal loan. Mr. Renzi, meanwhile, pulled in nearly $2 million.
Renzi has $670,000; Simon has $67,000
The late filings show, however, that Ms. Simon may need to invest more in her bid. Mr. Renzi reported more than $670,000 in cash on hand for the final two weeks of the campaign, while Ms. Simon held just a tenth of that — $67,000 — in reserve.
But Mr. Renzi faces difficulties that money may not be able to overcome. The Washington Post reported recently that Mr. Renzi may be the target of a federal investigation into whether he pressured investors to buy a large parcel of land owned by James Sandlin, a former business partner of Mr. Renzi’s. The transaction netted Mr. Sandlin a $3 million profit.
While The Arizona Republic later reported that its own law enforcement sources refuted some of The Post’s claims, the matter remains on some voters’ minds. No matter which offices are investigating the incident, Mr. Renzi has denied wrongdoing and has hired former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods to represent him. Mr. Renzi has accused Ms. Simon’s camp of being behind the leak.
Whether or not anything illegal took place, the very implication could hurt Mr. Renzi significantly as scandals nationally roil the GOP, according to Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker. After multiple Republican corruption and bribery scandals this year that have cost several congressmen their seats and two their freedom, recent polls have shown Americans are furious with Congress. The body’s approval rating, according to both a Diageo/Hotline poll and an Associated Press poll out last week, was just 23 percent, while between 72 percent and 75 percent disapproved. “This year it may be that just having some of the symptoms rather than the disease is enough,” says Mr. Baker.
“Scandal is one of the few things that seems to cause any mortality at all among incumbents,” Mr. Baker said. He noted that while Mr. Renzi’s problems aren’t as extreme as those that sent former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham to jail and enticed Rep. Bob Ney to plead guilty to conspiracy charges, it’s another example of “part of the widening stain of revulsion against members of Congress taking advantage of official positions.”
Ms. Simon’s campaign thinks the race has become a dead heat, citing a poll released by Majority Watch this week that showed the Democrat trailing by just 2 percent points. The Majority Watch Project, based in Washington, D.C. and Seattle, keeps tabs on 41 top House races, including the Renzi-Simon contest.
The poll is one way Ms. Simon’s campaign says they are gaining steam. “You can feel the momentum on the ground,” says Ms. Simon campaign manager Brandon Hall.
Those familiar with the Renzi campaign, though, maintain their candidate is ahead by double digits in internal polls.