The Republican Party is hoping that when the dust settles after the Nov. 7 election, the majority party will have enough votes in the Senate to potentially override any veto handed down from the Executive Tower.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to stave off attacks in two districts they currently control, as well as pick up a seat in Republican territory.
With an 18-12 advantage, Republicans need the two seats to get to 20 members, the number of votes needed to overturn a gubernatorial veto. If the Democrats defend the seats and add the other one they seek, they would be in position to work with the two moderate Republicans — Sen. Carolyn Allen, R-8, and Rep. Tom O’Halleran, R-1, who is expected to win that district’s Senate seat — to block legislation pushed by conservative lawmakers.
District 24
When Democrat Sen. Bob Cannell announced during the last session that he was going to retire and not seek re-election, the stage was set for a showdown in what observers both at the Capitol and in Yuma say will be the closest race of the election.
Both of the district’s representatives — Democrat Amanda Aguirre and Republican Russ Jones — are seeking the seat, and both are well-connected politically and popular among voters.
Ms. Aguirre, a native Mexican who became a U.S. citizen in 1992, is well known for her work in the health care industry. She is the CEO of both the Regional Center for Border Health and the San Luis Walk-in Clinic. She was appointed to the House in 2003 to replace Mr. Cannell, who was himself appointed to the Senate to replace Herb Guenther.
Mr. Jones owns several businesses, including a brokerage firm, an insurance company and a freight service. He has also served on the Arizona/Mexico Commission and is considered by many, both in Yuma and across the state, to be an expert on immigration. He was elected to the House in 2004.
District 23
The biggest victory of the election for Republicans would be knocking off Democrat Rebecca Rios in a district that has historically been a stronghold for her family and her party.
Rep. Cheryl Chase, who last summer switched her registration from Democrat to Republican, is challenging her for the seat. The Republican Party is hoping Ms. Chase’s popularity in the district — in 2004, she received substantially more votes than longtime lawmaker Pete Rios, Ms. Rios’ father, in the House race — will give them a leg up on the Democrats in a district that is trending Republican.
As recently as two years ago, Democrats had a 24-percentage-point registration advantage, making it difficult for Republicans to get a foothold. Now, though, that gap has been cut in half, thanks to an explosion of development attracting residents and retirees from Maricopa County.
The race has been heated, with Ms. Rios criticizing Ms. Chase for switching parties during the middle of a term and abandoning the principles that got her elected to office. Though the Republicans will likely control the registration numbers in the near future — maybe by 2008, but almost certainly by 2010 — most observers expect Ms. Rios to successfully defend her seat.
District 26
Democrats know it’s a bit of a long shot, but they hope to capitalize on the dissatisfaction moderate Republican voters may have with their party’s candidate, Al Melvin, who defeated Sen. Toni Hellon in the September primary. If successful, it would be the biggest victory for the Democrats in the election.
The district has long been known for electing moderate Republicans to the Legislature. While Ms. Hellon was pro-choice and opposed Proposition 107, which would change the state Constitution to forbid gay marriages, Mr. Melvin is a pro-family Republican who opposes both abortion and gay marriage.
The Democratic Party hopes to sway the more socially moderate Republican voters to vote for Charlene Pesquiera, a consultant and criminal justice instructor.
Observers say the Democrats have a chance in the district, as Mr. Melvin is seen by many in the district as too conservative. But Democrats have an uphill battle to overcome a 10-percentage-point deficit in voter registration.