Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the Arizona House of Representatives by eight seats coming into the night, but that lead has significantly decreased.
Democrat candidates appear to have wrested at least four seats from Republican control, though that number could increase to as many as seven as early ballots are counted.
Republican candidates in two districts, including one East Valley incumbent, trailed their Democrat opponents at press time. Another West Valley Republican lawmaker seeking re-election was narrowly leading a Democrat.
“We’re crossing our fingers to make sure it holds up, but we feel good,” Bill Scheel, legislative campaign director for the Arizona Democratic Party, said.
With four more seats, the Democrats have narrowed the membership advantage of Republicans to 35-25, putting Democrats in a position to have more influence over policy and the budget.
House Minority Leader Phil Lopes, D-27, is confident his caucus will pick up at least one of the three seats still undecided and said the Republicans will have to work with his members more.
“I think they’re smart enough to know that us picking up five seats, and perhaps as many as seven, is not an accident,” he said. “There’s some real concern in the voters about the direction of the Republican Party in the House.”
The best way to include Democrats in the decision-making, Mr. Lopes said, would be for Republican leadership to no longer require 31 Republican votes on the budget.
“I think it’s the wrong message we should be sending as an institution to the public,” he said. “It says that some votes don’t count.”
Rep. Tom Boone, R-4, the newly elected majority leader for the House Republican caucus, said a decision has not yet been made whether or not the policy of needing 31 Republican votes to pass a budget will continue for the next two years, though he said he thinks it will be.
Mr. Scheel says the outpouring of support for Democrat candidates is evidence of the public’s displeasure with the Republican strategy of the past two years, which saw 101 bills vetoed by Democratic Governor Napolitano.
“I think what we saw [in the election results]…goes to the tenor of the last session, where the House, in particular, was the driving force behind so many divisive bills designed to embarrass the governor,” he said. “I think it’s a repudiation of the tactics of Weiers.”
However, Mr. Boone says there was no definitive statement made at the voting booth about the Legislature. While Democrats made strides in the House, he said, Republicans won’t lose any Senate seats and, instead, could gain one.
“I don’t know that we’ve got a clear message — I think it’s a mixed message from the voters,” he said.
The Democrats targeted six legislative districts specifically this year — 10, 17, 23, 24, 25 and 26 — and were successful in winning seats from the Republicans in all but Yuma’s LD24 and the southern border district of LD25. The seat in District 23 is still too close to call, but a Democrat is leading for the second seat.
In districts 11 and 21, both of which are considered Republican strongholds because of lopsided voter registrations, Democrats are poised to take seats, though the Republican incumbent in LD21 trails by only a handful of votes. Meanwhile, in District 9, the Democrat candidate only slightly trails a conservative Republican lawmaker, despite facing a 16-percentage-point voter registration disadvantage.
District 11
When the dust settled from the primary election, the defeat of Republican incumbent John Allen proved to be the sole upset among House candidates. Its voters weren’t done surprising political pundits, though, as Democrat Mark Anthony Desimone pulled off a surprise victory in the general election, defeating Republican Party activist Don Hesselbrock.
Republican Adam Driggs, the son of former Phoenix mayor John Driggs, led the ticket, followed by Mr. Desimone. Mr. Hesselbrock trails him by about 940 votes.
Though unexpected by many because Republican voters outnumber Democrats by 17 percentage points, Mr. Scheel said the Democratic Party had been eyeing the race since before the primary election. But when Mr. Allen — whom Mr. Scheel said was vulnerable — was defeated, the party refocused some of its efforts elsewhere. Still, he said the victory by Mr. Desimone didn’t come as a total shock.
“Clearly, it was one that we saw as a sleeper,” Mr. Scheel said.
District 10
Though Democrats were unsuccessful in doing something that has only been done once before — defeat a sitting speaker of the House — they did manage to take one of the district’s seats, apparently defeating Republican Doug Quelland.
After rumors of a Republican Party internal poll showing Speaker Jim Weiers trailing both incumbent Mr. Quelland and Democrat challenger Jackie Thrasher began circulating late last month, the Democratic Party began focusing its efforts on drawing Democrats and left-leaning independents, as well as dissatisfied moderate Republicans, to the polls.
At the same time, Mr. Weiers made a late campaign push, spending more than $70,000 in the closing days before the election. Much of the last-minute spending was for mail pieces designed by Republican campaign consultant Constantin Querard. According to the most recent campaign finance filings, Mr. Weiers spent more than $196,000 on the race.
With all precincts reporting, Mr. Weiers had 27.3 percent of the vote and Ms. Thrasher received 27 percent. Mr. Quelland was in third, with 26.2 percent, trailing by about 340 votes.
Democrat Lamont Lovejoy received only 19.5 percent.
District 10 is composed of parts of Phoenix and Glendale, between Northern Avenue and Bell Road, from 51st Avenue to 16th Street. Voter registration breaks down as 40 percent Republican, 33.2 percent Democrat and 26.8 percent independent.
District 17
Democrats Ed Ableser and David Schapira won the district’s two seats to the House, knocking longtime lawmaker Laura Knaperek out of the Legislature.
As the most competitive district in the state, at least in terms of registration numbers, the battle for control of the Tempe and south Scottsdale district was fierce. The defeated Republican candidates were Ms. Knaperek and Dale Despain.
“You could say it was the hard work or the 7,000 doors I knocked on…but I think what it came down to is the people of District 17 are sick and tired of legislators who talk big on the campaign trail and then get nothing done,” Mr. Schapira said.
Ms. Knaperek, though, said the result was a product of a national backlash against Republicans and the popularity of Congressional candidate Harry Mitchell, a Democrat who represented the district in the Legislature since 1999 and was Tempe mayor for 17 years.
“Harry Mitchell is the one you want to be around — he has long coattails,” she said. “I don’t think this was a vote against Laura Knaperek. It was a vote against Republicans.”
Ms. Knaperek is in third place, trailing by about 1,750 votes.
The area has been represented in the House by a Republican and a Democrat since 2001, when Meg Burton Cahill replaced Mike Gardner.
The loss is a blow to the Republicans, as Ms. Knaperek has served in the House for all but two years since 1995 and is a former Appropriations Committee chair.
Though most legislative races are immune from a trickle-down effect of national races, District 17 is unique in that voters there also faced a contentions race for the U.S. House of Representatives. Because of Mr. Mitchell’s popularity in the district, his candidacy near the top of the ballot, and his recent campaign surge against Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth, likely attracted more support for the Democrat legislative candidates.
Voter registration numbers are nearly evenly split among Republicans, Democrats and independents — 36.3 percent are Republicans, 34.4 percent of voters are Democrats, while 29.2 percent are independents.
District 26
When a conservative Republican was nominated for the seat by voters in the primary election, the Democratic Party jumped into action, believing that the district would ultimately reject him in favor of their candidate.
The effort appears to be worth it, as Lena Saradnik easily defeated Republican David Jorgenson by about 4,300 votes. She says the voters rejected Mr. Jorgenson because he was too extreme.
“I really think that people don’t want the extreme views of either party,” she said. “What brought it around was moderation.”
Though a Democrat, Ms. Saradnik said she was coming to the Legislature to represent her district, not her personal beliefs or a party philosophy.
“My whole view is I represent the district,” she said. “My personal views have to be put aside for the betterment of my district and southern Arizona.”
In the primary election, Mr. Jorgenson defeated moderate Republicans Lisa Lovallo and Carol Somers, largely by running a single-shot campaign. More than 8,200 voters cast a vote for only one candidate, and observers believe most of those were for Mr. Jorgenson.
The district comprises north-central Pima County and Pinal County’s Oracle Junction and Saddlebrook. Republicans make up 41.7 percent of voters; 31.5 percent are Democrats and 26.8 percent are independents.
District 23
Democrats Pete Rios, an incumbent representative, and Barbara McGuire appear to have won the two House seats, according to unofficial election returns. They defeated Republicans John Fillmore and Frank Pratt, who narrowly lost to Mr. Rios in 2004.
With all precincts reporting, Mr. Pratt trails Ms. McGuire for the final seat by about 170 votes.
Though the district has long been a safe haven for Democrats, recent population booms in Pinal County have caused the voter registration numbers to trend Republican, with Democrats holding only a 10-percentage-point lead over Republicans, about half of what it was only two years ago.
House Minority Leader Mr. Lopes says he is confident that when the early ballots are counted that won’t propel Mr. Pratt past Ms. McGuire. Mr. Scheel said the Democrat victory “is a return to normalcy” for the district.
The district covers much of central Arizona, including most of Pinal County and parts of Maricopa and Gila counties. The voter registration breakdown is 41.1 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican and 27.8 percent independent.
District 21
In the surprise of the elections, a Democrat candidate is leading a Republican incumbent — albeit by a slim margin — in a district in which Democrats are outnumbered nearly two-to-one.
The most recent vote tally shows Republican incumbent Warde Nichols trailing Democrat Phil Hettmansperger by eight votes.
Rep. Steve Yarbrough, a Republican, led the ticket by a wide margin.
Mr. Scheel said the only explanation he had for the results was that the party had done a good job of organizing Democrats and urging independents to vote Democratic, part of which included a focused early voting drive.
The district covers east Chandler, southern Gilbert, southwest Mesa, Queen Creek and Sun Lakes. Republicans comprise 46.3 percent of the electorate, while only 25.9 percent are Democrats. The remaining 27.7 percent are independents.
District 9
Though initial returns showed her capturing a seat, Democrat Sheri Van Horsen trails Republican Rick Murphy in his re-election bid for the state House by 43 votes.
Mr. Murphy says he is not overly worried that he will be defeated because the early ballots that have yet to be counted will favor him.
“I have no doubt they’ll trend my way,” he said, adding that he expects to win by “a couple hundred” votes in the end.
Rep. Bob Stump, also a Republican, led all candidates, capturing 36.4 percent of the vote.
The district includes Sun City, much of Peoria and parts of north-central Glendale. Republicans account for 46.4 percent of voters, with 30.2 percent registered as Democrats. Only 23.4 percent are independents.
District 24
Another historically split district, Yuma and La Paz County voters have chosen a Republican and Democrat for the House since 1992 and appear to have done so this year, electing Democrat Lynne Pancrazi and Republican Ken Rosevear.
With all precincts reporting, they appear to have defeated Democrat Theresa Ulmer and Republican Joseph Melchionne.
The incumbents in the district, Democrat Amanda Aguirre and Republican Russ Jones, both ran for the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Bob Cannell, who is retiring from politics.
Each party saw this district as an opportunity to take a seat away from the opposition, though for different reasons. Democrats were banking on their registration advantage — they outnumber Republicans by about six percentage points — to lead them to victory.
Republicans, on the other hand, were counting on the conservative Democrats — especially those frustrated with illegal immigration — to support the Republican candidates.
The bulk of the district is Yuma County, though parts of La Paz County are also included. Democrats account for 41 percent of voters, Republicans 34.9 percent and independents 24.1 percent.
District 25
Though targeted by the Democrats, Republican Jennifer Burns was able to secure her re-election in the southern Arizona district. Democrat Manny Alvarez was also re-elected to the House.
With all precincts reporting, Mr. Alvarez, a Democrat, has received 27.4 percent of the vote. Incumbent Republican Jennifer Burns sits in second, with leads of 381 votes over Democrat Patricia Fleming and 521 votes over Republican Gail Griffin.
Last summer, Democrats set their sights on capturing the seat Ms. Burns holds in the largely Democratic district. Although Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a dozen percentage points, voters elected the moderate Republican in 2002 and re-elected her in 2004.
District 25 includes most of the state’s southern border and covers most of Cochise County, Pima County west of Tucson, southwest Pinal County, southern Santa Cruz County and southwest Maricopa County. Democrats have the registration advantage with 43.2 percent of voters, followed by Republicans with 30.9 percent and independents, who make up 25.9 percent of the electorate.