Faced with the albatross of President Bush’s dismal approval ratings, continued ethical questions and an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq, Republicans in Washington found another round of bad news as members of Congress filed fund-raising reports with the Federal Election Commission.
Two freshman Arizona Democrats, widely expected to be targeted by national Republicans, reported raising big dollars, while a veteran Republican reported a disappointing amount pulled in.
Representatives Harry Mitchell, a Tempe Democrat, and Gabrielle Giffords, a Tucson Democrat, picked up two previously Republican seats of 30 Democrats won last year nationwide.
Giffords, who replaced Congressman Jim Kolbe in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, raised $580,637 from April through June, more than all but three other freshmen Democrats. Giffords raised more than $928,000 in the first half of the year, ending the quarter with $941,489 cash on hand. Announcing the haul, the Giffords campaign reported it had raised enough in the two weeks following the reporting deadline to cross the $1 million mark.
According to PoliticalMoneyLine, a campaign finance reporting Web site, Giffords has raised more than $534,337 from individuals and more than $285,000 from political action committees so far this year. Individual contributors from Arizona make up almost $414,000 of Giffords’ contributions, meaning more than 77 percent of her contributions came from in-state sources. Giffords owed no debt from the previous cycle.
Mitchell, who defeated Congressman J.D. Hayworth in the Tempe and Scottsdale-based 5th Congressional District, raised $354,000 for the quarter, bringing his total raised to more than $607,000 for the year. He finished the period with $530,680 on hand. Individual donors gave Mitchell $327,000 — $287,500 of which came from Arizona residents, or about 88 percent. PACs gave $241,000 to Mitchell during the period.
Meanwhile, adding to Republican problems, Congressman Rick Renzi, a Flagstaff Republican representing the sprawling 1st Congressional District, picked up nearly $42,000 during the second quarter, reaching $164,000 for the cycle. That included just $26,000 in contributions from individuals. His campaign has spent almost $250,000 to retire debt left from his 2006 re-election bid, when he beat Democrat Ellen Simon handily.
Renzi has more than $450,000 in outstanding debt, and maintained $20,000 cash on hand. His trouble with fund raising can be overcome thanks to Renzi’s own personal fortune, said Tim Sahd, editor of House Race Hotline, a Washington publication that specializes in Congressional races. “He self-funded his first race. I think he could do it again.”
Renzi’s “campaign is on life support financially,” said Josh Kraushaar, a political correspondent for The Politico, a Washington-based newspaper. “He now has higher legal bills than he has [money] in the bank.” Renzi spent about $30,000 last quarter on legal bills.
Renzi has been dogged by questions about his ethical behavior. The FBI raided his offices in early April in connection with a land deal that benefited a political backer and close personal friend. After the raid, Renzi stepped down from all his committees in the House and told reporters in late April he was considering the possibility of resigning. In fact, many in Washington put so much stock in rumors of Renzi’s resignation that the DCCC began a special fund to raise money for a possible special election.
Renzi has long been called vulnerable
Even before his problems with the FBI, Renzi had been deemed a top target by Democrats. Republican leaders originally added Renzi to the Regain Our Majority Program (ROMP), which identifies vulnerable Republican incumbents. But after the FBI raids, Renzi withdrew from the program. Giffords and Mitchell are members of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s answer to ROMP, the “Frontline” program. Both programs aim to keep their party’s members in Congress by setting fund raising, media and organizational goals while providing close oversight from Washington.
Renzi will not likely be able to count on support from the NRCC should he find himself in electoral trouble. Asked about Renzi and California Congressman John Doolittle, whose home was raided by FBI agents, NRCC chairman Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican congressman who once served as executive director of the organization, told reporters that the two “will make good decisions at the appropriate time.” He refused to comment further, and those close to the NRCC have suggested the party won’t go out on a limb for the two embattled lawmakers.
Many are mulling the race
If Renzi runs again, he may have to contend with a primary challenger, and should he survive, he will face one of nearly a dozen candidates said to be actively considering the race. State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-2, resigned from her House seat July 24 to run, while community activist Howard Shanker and former television reporter Mary Kim Titla have announced bids.
For Mitchell and Giffords, their challenge is surviving their first re-election campaign. Despite their fund-raising success, says Sahd, “they’re still very targeted races.” Facing voters for the first time as incumbents, and having to answer for a Congress with approval ratings nationally that hover in the low 20s, the two face what for many members is remembered as their most difficult race.
National Republicans, asked to handicap the two races, said they will watch State Senate President Tim Bee, long on the radar as a potential candidate against Giffords.
Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, Corporation Commissioner Jeff Hatch-Miller and former State Rep. Laura Knaperek are top choices against Mitchell, according to some national Republicans. Asked to comment, Hatch-Miller and Schweikert both said they would wait to make a decision on the race until the end of the year, in order to comply with Arizona’s “resign to run” law. Knaperek was unavailable for comment.