Hoping to increase their fledgling majority in Congress and expand upon their success in the 2006 elections, national Democratic Party leaders have trained their sights on a new target: Arizona’s 3rd District Congressman John Shadegg.
But this time, say political watchers, Democrats may be setting their bar too high.
After picking up two Republican seats from Arizona, and seeing a national landscape as bad or worse for the GOP than 2006 was, Democrats hope a little-known attorney, Bob Lord, can upset the seven-term incumbent.
Lord says he will hinge his campaign on energy independence, an issue which he believes is reaching crisis levels; controlling the federal debt and increasing America’s flagging competitiveness around the world. Lord calls the war in Iraq, which by most accounts will be the top issue of the 2008 campaign, “ill-conceived” and “horribly mismanaged.”
“I believe we need to withdraw,” he said. “Whether that’s an immediate withdrawal or a phased withdrawal, I’d have to leave that to military experts.”
Asked why voters should fire their congressman, Lord rips off a litany of what he sees as bad votes. “He’s toeing the Bush Administration line, sometimes he’s toeing the Republican Party line, but he’s not representing the district,” Lord said.
Despite its Republican leanings, the district, Lord told the Arizona Capitol Times, is winnable. Shadegg’s huge margins of victory are attributable to an absence of a strong Democrat in the race. “Nobody’s ever given Mr. Shadegg a tough race here,” Lord said.
Lord, a tax and business attorney who served six years on the Scottsdale Airport Advisory Commission but is making his first bid for public office, reported more than $259,000 raised through the second quarter. He retained $232,000 cash on hand.
While the number is less than Shadegg’s $332,000 raised and $281,000 cash on hand for the cycle, Lord’s fund raising impressed some Washington observers. “Bob Lord’s fund raising numbers raised quite a few eyebrows in Washington,” said Josh Kraushaar, a national political correspondent for The Politico. “It looks like he’ll have enough money to run a viable campaign.”
Shadegg’s campaign, though, remains optimistic about his chances going into 2008. “Congressman Shadegg is a very good fit for the 3rd District of Arizona,” said spokesman Sean Noble. Even in a Democratic landslide like 2006, Shadegg won with 58 percent, a few points below his normal margin of victory, but a comfortable win, nonetheless.
Democrats make race priority
Despite the steep hill it, and Lord, must climb, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made the race a priority, according to DCCC spokesman Fernando Cuevas. He points to the 3rd District’s partisan representation, which is similar to that of the state’s 5th District, where Democrat Harry Mitchell beat out Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in 2006.
According to a memo prepared by the Lord campaign and numbers provided by the DCCC, Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Terry Goddard each won 60 percent of the vote in the district. Napolitano won 62.6 percent of the vote statewide, while Goddard won the same percentage as she did in the 3rd District.
Meanwhile, 54.7 percent in the district voted against Proposition 107, which would have banned same-sex marriage (the measure lost 49 percent-51 percent statewide), and Proposition 202, which raised the state’s minimum wage, passed with 61.2 percent, lower than the 66 percent who voted for it statewide.
Noble rejects comparisons between Shadegg’s 3rd District and Mitchell’s 5th. Mitchell’s seat contains more transplants from California and other states in wealthy enclaves around Scottsdale, he argues. Shadegg’s Phoenix-based district, which also includes the towns of Carefree and Cave Creek to the north, tends to be more middle class and exurban, where Republicans retain a comfortable lead.
Most Washington political watchers agree that Democrats will have a difficult time taking the seat. “It would take another substantial Democratic wave to unseat Shadegg,” Kraushaar said. “Shadegg still remains in good standing with his Phoenix-area constituents.”
Noble said Democrats’ focus on Shadegg’s seat is more a political game than a serious challenge. “Their main goal is to try to distract us,” he said, referring to Shadegg’s prodigious fundraising on behalf of other Republicans during the 2006 cycle. By tying up Shadegg, Noble suggested, Democrats are hoping to divert his attention from helping other Republicans win back seats in Congress. Of Lord, Noble says Rahm Emanuel, the Illinois Congressman who heads the House Democratic Caucus and last year led Democrats to victory as chair of the DCCC, “is using him as a sacrificial lamb.”
If Democrats meet three key criteria — spending significant national money in the district, Lord’s continued financial success and matching, if not bettering, last year’s overwhelming Democratic wave — Shadegg may have a race on his hands. But early in the cycle, his campaign’s pace indicates he won’t take any election for granted. Lord’s challenge, says Noble, “is getting us on our game a little earlier than normal, and we’re glad to do that.”