Some senators have decided to hit the road — meaning the campaign trail — early.
“Starting September 4th and 5th, I’ll probably be out knocking on doors in my district,” Sen. Jim Waring, R-7, told the Arizona Capitol Times this month.
His colleague in the majority, Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, R-21, appeared to be ahead of the pack.
“We’re hitting the streets as we speak,” he said a few days later. “I have started my campaign, formed my committee, and begun fund raising.”
Tibshraeny has kept a high profile in Chandler, where he was mayor. Chandler Mayor Boyd Dunn recently appointed him to a museum advisory board. He has also been named chair of the Chandler General Plan Update Committee.
Tibshraeny said he will again be running as a team with House incumbents Steve Yarbrough and Warde Nichols.
Waring said he will start knocking on doors right after Labor Day to begin raising money for his re-election.
He said he has about $90,000 on hand, but is taking no chances against any contender who may run with public funding and get matching funds.
Waring received 31,735 votes in last year’s general election, and his Democratic challenger, Lisa Black, got 23,860.
Legislative District 7 is heavily Republican. Registered GOP voters number 44,274; registered Democrats number 22,165.
Traditional district registration numbers no safety net
However, the demographics in Arizona are changing, and Republican candidates can no longer rely on their voter registration advantage.
Registered Republicans now comprise 38.63 percent of the voting population while the Democratic Party has 32.96 percent, a Republican advantage of 5.67 percentage points.
In actual figures, the GOP leads by more than 150,000 voters.
“That is not a huge advantage anymore. It certainly is not like it was probably 20 years ago, when Barry Goldwater was running,” Waring said.
GOP, Dems wary of surge in ‘other’ voter registrations
Parties are aware of the changes, particularly the growing number of voters who have registered as independent or under neither of the traditional parties and are categorized as “other.”
Three times as many Democrats registered to vote compared to Republicans since April, and statewide voter registration increased by nearly 40,000 during that period, with voters now numbering 2,649,367, according to recently released figures from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office.
But “other” voters have far outpaced the growth of the major parties’ bases during the period, registering five times more than GOP voters, and 1.5 times as many as Democrat voters.
For example, a total of 21,087 independents have registered since April, boosting their total to 733,852 or 27.7 percent of the voter population in the state.
“Arizona is changing,” Waring said.
“I see that in my district,” he said, noting that some years ago more than 52 percent of voters there were Republicans.
He said he thinks the number of people moving to the Valley fuels the change in registration. Newcomers register as independents, he said.
“Work harder,” he said when asked what would — and should — be his and his party’s strategy.