Whoever wins the Democratic and Republican nomination for president will have an impact on Arizona elections this year, experts say.
ASU Professor Bruce Merrill, a prominent pollster, observes that President Bush is hurting Republican prospects, so whoever is at the top of the 2008 ticket might very well influence local races.
Arizona Democrats favor New York Sen. Hillary Clinton by a 2-1 margin over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, Merrill says. “But Republicans can’t stand that woman,” he says. “They’re opposed to her 85 percent to 15 percent. If she wins the nomination, will Republicans unite against her? I don‘t know. That’s the whole strategy of Rudy Giuliani and John McCain – that they’re the only ones who can beat her.”
Lobbyist Barry Aarons considers what would happen if Republicans nominate a candidate who is not to the liking of the standard GOP base in Arizona.
“If the high-propensity Republican base, the more socially conservatives, do not like the GOP standard-bearer, the tendency is to stay home,” Aarons says. “That happened to a large extent in 2006 (a non-presidential year). Conservatives on economic issues were disgusted with the Republican Congress. They saw them as wild as any Democratic Congress had ever been and they stayed home.”
Aarons says the same scenario could play out if Democrats nominate someone polarizing within their party. “If some Democrats are so unhappy with whoever the survivor is, they might stay home or go for a third-party candidate,” he says.
Jim Haynes of Behavior Research says a presidential nominee who is unpopular with Arizona voters in their particular party would likely pull down that party’s ticket.
But Don Isaacson, a long-time lobbyist, says matter-of-factly, “If they head the ticket, they won’t be unpopular.”
He doubts that McCain, Giuliani, Clinton or Obama would have an immediate impact on state policies. “But if the Democrats sweep Congress and the White House, there will be an undeniable sense of momentum and support for a Democratic agenda, which will filter down to the Legislature.”