At a weekly press conference, Gov. Janet Napolitano faces questions about her political future if Barack Obama wins the presidency.

Arizona voters overwhelmingly sent Sen. John McCain back to the United States Senate in 2004, and, should he win the Nov. 4 election, his vacancy on The Hill will be filled in short order.
But if he loses, Arizonans could be faced with the replacement of a top elected official, as rumors have swirled for months that Gov. Janet Napolitano is on the short list of possible cabinet choices for Illinois Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
For months, there have been whispers at the Capitol that Napolitano, who served a term as Arizona’s attorney general, could be selected to fill that role in a potential Obama administration.
In recent weeks, Congressional Quarterly speculated that Napolitano is a top candidate for Secretary of Education should the Democratic candidate win the presidential election, while the Phoenix Business Journal and other publications have reported she is being considered to head up the federal Department of Homeland Security.
The governor has not publicly discussed the rumors. At a press conference earlier this month, Napolitano was asked if she had discussed an appointment with Obama.
“I’m not looking for a new job,” was the response.
But, the reporter persisted, if a cabinet position was offered, would she take it?
“I’m not looking for a new job,” she repeated.
Recently, Napolitano said Obama’s transition team has not asked her to provide any information about herself.
Despite her attempts to downplay speculation, pundits, pollsters and politicians are all wondering what Napolitano would do if faced with the chance to join Obama’s cabinet.
Opinions on what might happen are split. Some say she will jump ship and go to D.C. because of the financial crisis in Arizona, while others think she will stay because she has her mind set on running for McCain’s Senate seat in 2010.
Arizona pollster Mike O’Neil, president of O’Neil Associates, said a potential run for the U.S. Senate in two years likely will be the deciding factor for Napolitano, should she be given the opportunity to join a presidential administration.
“I think if she wants to run for the Senate, she stays here,” he said.
Many Republicans are resolute in their belief that Napolitano is a short-timer in state government.
“In the extremely unfortunate circumstance that Obama wins,” said Republican political consultant Nathan Sproul, “I would be shocked if Janet Napolitano does not take any position offered to her.
“In fact, I think she’d be willing to take the deputy superintendent to the assistant of the director of Parks and Rec if it were offered to her in order to get out of the state of Arizona.”
Conservative blogger Greg Patterson said Napolitano has bungled the state’s budget problems, avoiding making budget cuts when the economy took a downturn and instead opting for “gimmicks (and) accounting tricks” in the hopes that state revenue would return to its previous levels.
“She rolled the dice and lost…” Patterson said, adding that the budget will now require $2 billion in spending cuts to be balanced.
Sproul, who managed the campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Len Munsil in 2006, said the ignominy that comes with having the largest debt-to-revenue ratio in the country spells doom for Napolitano’s political reputation if she stays in Arizona.
“If Janet Napolitano remains governor for the next two years, she quite possibly could go down as the worst governor ever in the history of Arizona,” he said. “And for her to go down as one of the worst governors in Arizona history would truly be saying something — Arizona’s had its bad ones.”
Arizona State University political scientist Bruce Merrill, who runs the Cronkite/Eight poll, agrees that Napolitano will, indeed, abdicate her position in state government for a post in the Obama administration, should he win the presidential election.
But Merrill said it’s less about fearing the political consequences of presiding over what will no doubt be a painful and prolonged economic downturn than it is about wanting to be a part of history.
“If Obama’s in, this would be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of an opportunity to play a major role, not just for Arizona,” he said. “I just think that it would be too big of an opportunity for her to pass up, and she would stay there as long as she felt she was making a difference.”
The thought of Napolitano resigning the governorship is a chilling one for Arizona Democrats. House Minority Leader Phil Lopes, a Tucson Democrat, said her departure would make it much more difficult for legislative Democrats to advance their agenda, as she would be replaced by Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer.
“I just hope she doesn’t do it, because it’s going to leave us in a world of hurt,” Lopes said.
O’Neil, the pollster, said local Democrats “would have apoplexy” if Napolitano turned control of state government back over to the Republicans.
“I don’t think she’d win a whole lot of friends back home. It might be a one-way ticket,” he said.
And while Democrats are acknowledging the possibility of Napolitano joining an Obama administration, they aren’t convinced her departure is imminent.
“What I’m hearing is that she’s really got her heart set on a run for the U.S. Senate,” said liberal blogger Ted Prezelski.
Democratic political strategist Bob Grossfeld said one can easily imagine a president-elect Obama telling Napolitano she could better help the Democratic cause by staying in Arizona and running for the Senate in 2010, with a pledge to assist her campaign. “It would be, ‘whatever you need,’” Grossfeld said.
Grossfeld said “at best, it’s a 50/50 proposition” that Napolitano would continue as governor of Arizona.
“The reality is that JN is a rising star among elected officials in the country, not just the party. She’s needed here in the state…but she’s also needed in Washington,” he said.
One way Grossfeld has tried to divine which way Napolitano is leaning is by keeping an eye on how much effort she has put into capturing legislative seats. The theory, he said, is that Napolitano would do everything possible to help Democrats control at least one legislative chamber if she were leaving, to allow them to stymie the efforts of a Republican governor.
Conversely, if she were planning to stay in Arizona, Napolitano might put less effort into gaining legislative seats.
So how would Grossfeld characterize the governor’s effort in legislative races?
“I think it’s been pedal to the metal,” he said.
Prezelski said the idea that Napolitano would feel safer in leaving Arizona if Democrats controlled the state House or Senate has been gaining momentum recently. Lopes disagreed with the theory’s premise, saying Napolitano is committed to getting other Democrats elected for the same reasons she’ll finish out her term: advancing Democratic Party ideals.
“We have to think not only for the next two years, but the next 10,” he said. “We want to get a Democrat elected to replace her.”
Sproul said he
doubts Napolitano would stay for the sole reason that it’s good for the state.
“Has she ever been altruistic? This is the person who signed employer sanctions, even though she knew that her Hispanic caucus was going to be frustrated by it,” he said.
But Kevin DeMenna, a Republican lobbyist, said there are other factors at work. The Democratic Party’s desire to win control of traditionally Republican states in the West — Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, for example — could well override personal ambitions.
“I believe she’s too vested in the state and that it’s hard to imagine converting a Democratic administration to a Republican administration for something like attorney general, while denying Democrats their best candidate for McCain’s Senate seat in 2010,” he said.
Of course, it isn’t even a certainty that an Obama victory in the presidential race would lead to a job offer for Napolitano. But O’Neil said that, should an offer be made, Napolitano’s choice could be the biggest one of her political career.
“It’s like what old Yogi (Berra) said: If you find a fork in the road, take it. That’s where she’s at, and it’s an interesting fork at that,” said O’Neil.