In the battle for control of the Arizona House of Representatives, Republicans and Democrats are seeking to gain ground in the East Valley’s Legislative District 13, where no House candidate who won in 2022 is competing. 

Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, D-Chandler, is not running for re-election after she became the Arizona School Board Engagement Director with Stand for Children Arizona earlier this year. That leaves Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, as the district’s only current officeholder running for election.

Willoughby was appointed to her seat in 2023 after former state Rep. Liz Harris was expelled from the House. She is running with former Republican state Rep. Jeff Weninger against Democrats Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales. 

Green Party candidate Cody Hannah is also running for the House on a progressive platform. 

In a swing district of a thin one-seat GOP House majority, the district is vital in deciding which party will control the chamber.

“I think Republicans could net the Pawlik seat because Weninger has been popular in that district,” said lobbyist Barry Aarons. “He has been a very good legislator.”

Weninger served in the House from 2015 to 2023 and has served on the Chandler City Council. He was the chairman of the House Commerce Committee and ran for state Treasurer in 2023  but lost to Kimberly Yee in his primary race. 

Willoughby finished third in 2022’s House race behind Pawlik and Harris. She received just .2% less votes than Harris but was nominated by Republican precinct committeeman in the district to replace Harris and chosen by the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors after Harris’s expulsion. 

The district leans slightly Republican with a 1.5% vote spread advantage for GOP candidates, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Pawlik has run as a single-shot candidate for Democrats in LD13 since she was first elected in 2018. This is the first time in recent years that Democrats are running two candidates for House seats in the district. 

But their chances in picking up a House seat could be hindered after The Arizona Republic reported Wednesday that Gonzales has spent a decade in a custody battle with his ex-partner over parenting their son, leading to a conviction in Gilbert Municipal Court of false reporting to law enforcement in connection with his son was missing in 2021. 

Gonzales, a business owner and urban planner who works on developing affordable housing, is seeking election to public office for the first time.

GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said the news of Gonzales breaking could hurt Democrats in holding onto Pawlik’s seat. 

“It will hurt them unless they can encourage D’s to do a single shot on Reese,” Coughlin wrote in a text message to the Arizona Capitol Times. “Weninger is going to win one of the two seats. It’s the second seat that is competitive. 

Another political consultant, Barrett Marson, said Democrats are fortunate the early ballot period has already begun. 

“I know some people in that district who voted early already voted for Gonzales and are regretting that vote,” Marson said. “This will make it incredibly difficult for Democrats to retain even one of those seats, much less pick up a seat.”

Democrats have fundraised big in the district for Gonzales and Reese compared to Weninger and Willoughby. Reese, a forensics scientist who unsuccessfully ran for the House in the Legislative District 14 House race in 2022, raised $175,000 during the third quarter of the campaign finance reporting period and has brought in more than $318,000 during the election cycle. 

Gonzales raised $167,000 during quarter three and $251,000 during the election cycle. Willoughby and Weninger brought in $120,000 combined during the quarter and raised $255,000 between the two for the cycle.