One of Gov. Katie Hobbs’ main priorities this election season was flipping the Legislature, but Republican majorities only grew. Political consultants say the blame for Democrats’ losses doesn’t lie solely with the governor. 

Hobbs said for months that her two goals were flipping the Legislature and passing Proposition 139, which enshrines abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution. Prop. 139 passed handily on Nov. 5, but Democrats ended up even further from the legislative majority than they expected. 

On Nov. 14, Hobbs said at a press conference that she wouldn’t have done anything differently this election cycle.

“We did what we needed to do, and I’m going to work with the Legislature that Arizonans elected,” Hobbs said. 

The Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which Hobbs worked closely with during the election cycle, released a statement that attributed the strengthened Republican majorities to “top-of-the-ticket trends.”

“Across the country, down-ballot Democrats worked tirelessly to combat top-of-the-ticket trends,” said ADLCC Executive Director Elsa O’Callaghan in a statement. “It is now clear that those trends proved to be insurmountable.” 

Some Republicans started pointing fingers at Hobbs, saying her political clout was hurtful and not helpful to the Democratic candidates she stumped for. But consultants on both sides of the aisle aren’t so sure.

“Blaming her for this is convenient but inaccurate,” said Stacy Pearson, a Democratic campaign consultant. “I get that because she made this a public priority, that she’s going to get the public criticism, but this is not that.” 

Pearson said she attributes the losses across the ballot to a lack of focus from Democrats on registering more voters to counteract the Republicans’ voter registration advantage. 

“This is not an admonishment of her leadership,” Pearson said. “This is a much bigger scenario in the state of Arizona, where new residents are moving here, and they’re not registering as Democrats. It is a much, much bigger national landscape.”

Barrett Marson, a Republican consultant, also highlighted national trends as a possible explanation for Democratic losses in Arizona.

“I don’t think Arizona’s election results are on Katie Hobbs because I think there was a mood among voters that transcends state politics,” Marson said.

He also placed blame on fundraising and messaging from the Democrats, saying money was wasted by not talking about big ticket issues like the economy and the border. 

Marson said Hobbs will need to keep those trends in mind as she heads into the next legislative session because voters will likely be thinking of similar issues when she is expected to run for reelection in 2026. 

“She’ll have to read these election results and see that she may have to tack a little right, she may have to negotiate a bit more with legislative Republicans and sign some of the things that maybe she opposes or isn’t a fan of because clearly, voters preferred Republicans in the 2024 election, up and down the ballot,” Marson said.

No Republican challengers have officially announced their candidacy for governor yet, but some Republicans are floating rumors that the Democrats may find someone to replace Hobbs at the top of the ticket. Both Pearson and Marson say a primary challenge to Hobbs is highly unlikely.

“Get in at your own peril, if somebody wants to come in, but it’s just that’s not how the infrastructure works,” Pearson said. “I think folks that are encouraging or wishing for or optimistic about a Democratic primary are just doing it for publicity value, it’s not going to happen.” 

Pearson and Marson both said Hobbs’ massive campaign war chest and proven fundraising abilities will be a huge deterrent for any Democratic challenger. Hobbs spent much of her campaign funds on legislative races this year, but had nearly $3 million in cash on hand before the election. 

Marson said that doesn’t mean Hobbs should rest on her incumbent advantage, as he said he believes she will face an even stronger Republican challenger in 2026 than she did in 2022 when she squared off against Kari Lake. 

“She still has several million dollars in the bank and a record to run on, but it’s got to be a record of more than just vetoes,” Marson said. “She is the veto queen, there’s no doubt about that. That veto stamp works overtime, but she’s going to have to tell voters what she has done, what she is for, not just what she is against.”