Reagan Priest Arizona Capitol Times//January 9, 2025//[read_meter]
Reagan Priest Arizona Capitol Times//January 9, 2025//[read_meter]
When the Legislature convenes on Jan. 13, Gov. Katie Hobbs won’t just be thinking about her 2025 legislative priorities. She will also have her eye trained on her 2026 reelection campaign.
Hobbs is already laying the groundwork for what will likely be a difficult race, with her campaign announcing on Jan. 7 that it raised nearly $6 million since she was first elected in 2022. But Hobbs will have more work to do in the Legislature to help put those funds to good use.
For an incumbent governor seeking reelection, the legislative sessions leading up to that race are crucial battlegrounds for wins that can be taken to voters as a case for a second term. While many of Arizona’s past governors were able to work alongside a Legislature held by their same party, Democrat Hobbs will be working with even deeper red majorities for the next two years.
Stacy Pearson, a Democratic consultant, said Hobbs’ fundraising is “an unprecedented haul for an incumbent” and “a great place to start.” But she acknowledged that securing wins on education, the border, housing and other bipartisan issues will be important for the governor during the 2025 session.
Some consultants say that means Hobbs will need to lean a bit rightward and work with Republicans on issues like border security and economic development — issues that expanded conservative majorities in Arizona and across the U.S. in the 2024 election.
“There has to be a willingness to negotiate and spend some money and maybe step out of her comfort zone a little bit, maybe do some things that aren’t necessarily Democratic priorities, but clearly are priorities for Arizona,” said Republican public relations consultant Barrett Marson.
He cited the passage of Proposition 314, as evidence of voters’ increased desire for action related to the border. The measure includes several provisions aimed at curbing illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking.
Hobbs will not announce her official 2025 legislative priorities until she gives her State of the State Address on Jan. 13, but she has indicated in recent months that the border will be one of them. Hobbs said in November that she would work with President-elect Donald Trump in his second term on border security issues, but drew the line at helping with mass deportations.
Chuck Coughlin, a Republican-turned-independent and longtime campaign consultant, said Hobbs can signal her support for border security efforts by providing state funds to law enforcement agencies that are already asking for more money in the wake of the Prop. 314 passage.
“I would expect her to support the funding of those state law enforcement measures, which would assist those local governments, those county governments, in enforcing those,” Coughlin said. “It seems to be the responsible thing to do and it would be good for her, politically, to be able to say that she was helpful in getting that done.”
Marson said he thinks Hobbs has been focused too much on blocking Republican efforts during the last two sessions, rather than working alongside them and negotiating on issues.
“Telling people what you’re against rather than what you’re for is not a winning electoral strategy …” Marson said. “Just vetoing bad Republican bills a good TV ad does not make.”
Pearson disagreed, saying she thinks Hobbs can “stay the course.”
“What she did was win in a red state that was losing Democrats at the most fundamental level, on the voter rolls,” Pearson said. “So I think she can stay the course. She has continued to prioritize public safety, public education, public infrastructure, and those issues resonate with voters.”
A statement released by Hobbs’ campaign on Jan. 7 did not highlight any specific initiatives or priorities from the past two years to indicate what Hobbs might campaign on.
“Over the last two years, Gov. Hobbs has delivered on her promise to put Arizonans first, tackle the challenges her predecessors ignored, and make life better for middle-class families in our state,” said Nicole DeMont, Hobbs’ political strategist, in a prepared statement. “… As we enter the second half of her first term, Gov. Hobbs will continue proving to Arizonans that she is the right leader to move our state forward.”
The campaign also noted that Hobbs’ likelihood of being reelected is supported by historical trends, which favor incumbents. The last governor to lose reelection in Arizona was Democrat Samuel Pearson Goddard Jr. in 1966, while all seven governors who ran for reelection after him succeeded.
While many of those reelected governors were Republicans, Hobbs’ situation is not unheard of. Former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano won reelection in 2006 while also working with Republican majorities in both chambers during her first term.
Marson cautioned against comparing Hobbs’ chances with those of former governors like Napolitano because of how the state’s political parties have shifted over the years.
“While Janet Napolitano faced a Republican Legislature, they were different Republicans,” Marson said. “There were actual, real moderate Republicans during that time … those moderate Republicans do not exist in the Legislature.”
However, Coughlin said he thinks Hobbs could emulate Napolitano’s path to victory by finding Republicans who are willing to work alongside Democrats on big issues like water and housing.
“It’s a different type of Republicans that you have today … but the path is there,” Coughlin said. “Try and find out who are those Republicans that you can work with and cultivate those relationships. That’s the path, and that’s why [Napolitano] got reelected, is because she was able to execute on some of those paths and deliver on programs for Arizona voters.”
He said he knows some Republicans are willing to compromise on issues that will likely be top of mind for Hobbs as well. Both groundwater conservation and affordable housing have been subjects of bipartisan legislation and negotiations in the past two sessions, making them potential areas of success for the governor.
“Smart play would be to encourage Democratic legislators to make inroads with some of those Republicans to try and figure out if you can create a relationship and compromise there,” Coughlin said. “Because you hold one or two Republicans out of the arena, you’ve created an opportunity for compromise.”
Pearson said she thinks Republicans might be a little bit more likely to work with the Governor’s Office after recent attempts to work around Hobbs did not pan out. Of the 11 referrals lawmakers sent to voters to bypass Hobbs’ veto stamp, only four were approved.
“The Republicans didn’t win the vast majority of the referrals that they threw down, and so the voters don’t align with some of the priorities that they put forward in defiance of the governor,” Pearson said.
Pearson and Coughlin both identified Proposition 123 as an early opportunity for Hobbs to score points, as the education funding measure will need to be renegotiated by the Legislature so voters can weigh in on it before it expires at the end of this year. If Hobbs can secure a compromise that pleases Republicans, Democrats and teachers, it will be a big win that will help her shape her reelection campaign in its early days.
“She’s got plenty of runway ahead of her to try and shape that environment,” Coughlin said. “I’m pretty sure she will do everything she can to make sure that that environment is the most favorable for her that it possibly can be.”
You don't have credit card details available. You will be redirected to update payment method page. Click OK to continue.