Adelita Grijalva announced she will run to fill her father’s congressional seat on Monday with the backing of major Democrats across Arizona, which consultants say make this primary one to watch.

Grijalva has long been the favored candidate to replace the late-Rep. Raúl Grijalva in Congressional District 7 and her candidacy comes with name recognition and wide support. Her announcement featured a long list of Democrats endorsing her, including Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, who will chair the campaign.

Several legislative Democrats from Southern Arizona also pledged their support, including  Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan, Sen. Rosanna Gabaldon and Reps. Mariana Sandoval, Betty Villegas, Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, Nancy Gutierrez and Chris Mathis.

Candidates should not expect support from one major Democrat: Gov. Katie Hobbs. The governor said Monday that she will not be getting involved in the CD7 race.

Though 14 Democrats have filed statements of interest, consultants see the race as being  between Grijalva and former state representative Daniel Hernandez.

Adelita Grijalva (Photo from Pima.gov)

“We’re going to learn very quickly how much value name ID has,” Democrat consultant Stacy Pearson said. “We’ve got the last name Grijalva on a ballot in a district that has returned him to Congress this entire century.”

Pearson noted the Hernandez family had also served in the region for decades, too.

Beyond name ID, fundraising remains critically important, but Pearson said, because of the short runway to the special primary, independent expenditures are likely to play a pivotal role in both campaigns.

On Grijalva’s side, Pearson said her father’s legacy as a deal-broker and ally to environmental groups could prove to be a “true asset,” and an in-road to contributions.

Hernandez, on the other hand, received early support from Equality PAC and LGBTQ+ Victory Fund and may very well see the support of the American Israel PAC as a member of the Jewish community and advocate for Israel.

And if 2024 was any tell, Pearson speculated cryptocurrency PACs could enter the fray, too, given past participation in the primary between Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán in CD3.

But overall, Pearson said it would come down to authenticity.

“This is a district that can hold two thoughts simultaneously, that we need a secure border and we need humane treatment of immigrants. We need land conserved and we need safe space for our cattle and our farms,” Pearson said. “This district is complicated, and I think you really have to find somebody from that district to understand them.”