Key Points:

• The 2026 election has already begun in earnest in Arizona

• Consultants say voters are not ready to hear election news yet

• Only some issues in 2025 will impact races in 2026

With candidacy announcements, endorsements and fundraising requests plaguing inboxes and social media feeds, it would almost seem like Nov. 3, 2026, is just around the corner. 

In reality, Election Day is more than 550 days away and all of the talk about its impending arrival is proving exhausting for those who work in politics and ineffective for the voters they are trying to reach.

Consultants say much of the current talk around 2026 is premature and is not breaking through to the average voter who will show up at a polling place on Election Day.

“What I see right now is just this ping pong match that goes on between MAGA and the left, which everybody in our industry covers and pays attention to,” said Chuck Coughlin, CEO of public affairs firm High Ground. “But it really doesn’t matter, right? It doesn’t really resonate beyond those bases.”

Coughlin said he attributes the nonstop nature of elections nowadays to the 24-hour media cycle and the rise in social media. But that also means only the most plugged in voters are consuming early coverage of elections.

“The aggressively identified base, the 20% of Republican voters that show up in a primary, the 15% of Democratic voters that show up in a primary, that’s who’s paying attention to all this,” Coughlin said. “They’re driving the narrative. It’s not the 80% of voters who show up in the general election.”

Even Gov. Katie Hobbs, who is running for reelection in 2026, said she is not thinking that far ahead.

“I’m not focused on an election that is 18 months away,” Hobbs told reporters at a press conference on April 22 when asked about her reelection chances. 

But that hasn’t stopped her campaign or other campaigns from staffing up, sending out press releases and courting donors for funds. Many candidates for statewide offices, such as secretary of state and treasurer, have announced their campaigns in recent weeks, and similar announcements are far from over.

Polling on the Republican side even indicates voters are not interested in talking about candidates. A recent poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC found that 39% of Republican primary voters remain undecided about gubernatorial candidates. Another poll found that 78% of voters are undecided on a candidate in the Republican primary for attorney general. 

Consultants on both sides of the aisle say they have received countless questions about the potential impact that current events in state and national politics could have on the 2026 election. But most agree that many of the biggest issues of early 2025 do not have the staying power to impact an election more than a year away.

For example, Stacy Pearson, a Democratic consultant, said she doesn’t think the bill moratorium announced by Hobbs on April 17 as a result of the dispute over funding for the Division of Developmental Disabilities is something voters will remember when casting ballots.

“I’ve spent my entire career in politics and I don’t think the average voter gives a flying rat’s behind,” Pearson said. “The average voter certainly isn’t going to care in 560 days.”

She and other Democrats also don’t see recent spats within the Democratic Party as impacting the election. Recently, the state party chair publicly criticized the state’s U.S. senators, prompting them, along with the top three statewide Democrats, to issue a joint statement in response. 

Steven Slugocki, a Democratic consultant and former Maricopa County Democratic Party chair, said he thinks voters have bigger fish to fry than state party infighting.

“I think people are focused on their 401ks, their job security, gas prices, things like that,” Slugocki said.

Coughlin said both parties should focus on finding a cohesive message to enter 2026 with and work on voter registration in the meantime. And, when possible, step away from the speculation and buzz around elections.

“Stop thinking about it,” Coughlin said. “Live your life, go to the grocery store, love your kids, love your neighbors, build your social group around what matters and ignore it.”