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Tag: Legislative District 9

Lawmakers face re-election amid shifting political landscape

Key Points:
  • Democrats see 2026 as their best chance to gain majority in state Legislature
  • Republicans hold 17-13 Senate majority and 33-27 House majority
  • Democrats are targeting seven legislative districts in their re-election efforts

State lawmakers are running for re-election this year, and after a red wave in 2024 that expanded Republicans’ majorities in both legislative chambers, Democrats are confident they can gain ground in November. 

“This year truly is the best chance that Democrats have at taking the majority,” House Minority Leader and Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Co-Chair Oscar De Los Santos told reporters and constituents in a Zoom call on Jan. 5. “The conditions are there. The country is fed up with Donald Trump’s obsession with petty politics and nonsense and distractions.”

The Governor’s Office and several other federal and state executive offices will be up for grabs in November, as well as the entire state Legislature. Republicans currently hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate and a 33-27 majority in the House. 

De Los Santos said the state Democratic legislative campaign committee is targeting seven legislative districts.

Legislative District 2

The north Phoenix district is represented by two Republicans and one Democrat. Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix; and Reps. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix; and Stephanie Simacek, D-Phoenix, have all filed statements of interest with the Secretary of State’s Office to run for re-election. 

Bolick defeated former Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert in the 2024 election by more than 3% of votes when Schwiebert tried to move seats from the House to the Senate. Simacek got the most votes in the district’s House race and Wilmeth just finished ahead of fellow Republican Ari Bradshaw by .10% of votes. 

Bradshaw has also filed a statement of interest to run again for the House in LD2, but Simacek is the only Democrat to have filed so far. Other candidates include Republicans Linda Brickman, Neil DeSanti, Danielle Skranak and Arizona Independent Party candidate Tom Simes. 

Two Democrats, Krista Andrews and Daniel Toporek, have filed statements of interest to run for the Senate in the district, and two other Republicans, Timothy Ferrara and Christian Hinz, have filed paperwork to run against Bolick. 

Republicans make up about 35% of registered voters in the district, according to the most recent report from the Secretary of State’s Office published in October. Another 26% of voters are registered Democrats and the rest are registered as independents or affiliated with other parties. 

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission has labeled LD2 as a highly competitive district, giving Republicans a 3.80% advantage. 

Legislative District 4

This Scottsdale and northeast Phoenix district flipped entirely to Republican control after the 2024 election when it was previously represented by two Democrats at the Legislature in the prior election cycle. 

Reps. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix; and Pamela Carter, R-Scottsdale, defeated Democrats Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham. Carter had the closest race and beat Butler by 1% of votes, while Sen. Carine Werner, R-Scottsdale, defeated former state Sen. Christine Marsh by almost 4% of votes. 

Aaron Lieberman, a former Democratic state representative who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, has filed a statement of interest to challenge Werner for the LD4 Senate seat. 

The district’s House race has six candidates who are interested in running, including Gress, Carter and Gresham. Republicans Sandra Christensen and Jeffrey Nelson have also filed statements of interest along with Democrat Tank Hanna. 

Republican voters make up about 39% of registered voters in the district, and Democrats account for 26%, but a sizable independent voter base could determine how the district is represented after 2026. 

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission also considers LD4 as highly competitive, with Republicans holding a 3.42% advantage.

Legislative District 9

The west Mesa district of LD9 was the only competitive district in 2024 where Democrats took all three legislative seats. 

Reps. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa; and Seth Blattman, D-Mesa, both narrowly defeated their Republican opponents, Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza, in 2024, with Austin emerging as the top candidate with 26% of the vote. 

Blattman announced in December that he won’t seek re-election to instead pursue a new professional opportunity with greater “long-term stability” than his House seat and endorsed Democrat Jacob Martinez to replace him.

“Serving the people of LD 9 has been the honor of my life,” Blattman said in a statement. “Together we launched Arizona’s first Micro-Business Loan Program, putting many mom-and-pop shops on a more solid footing, and supported our public schools. I’m proud of what we accomplished and confident that Arizona’s best days are ahead.”

Austin has also filed a statement of interest to run again for her seat, and Republican Bradley Bettencourt is the only Republican seeking a House seat in LD9 so far. 

Former Democratic state Sen. Eva Burch beat Republican Robert Scantlebury by more than 3% in 2024, but Burch resigned during the 2025 legislative session. Her appointed replacement, Sen. Kiana Sears, has filed a statement of interest to run against Republican Bridget Fitzgibbons for the Senate. 

While LD9 was Democrats’ greatest performing competitive district in 2024, Republicans still hold a voter registration advantage of nearly 32% compared to Democrats’ near 29%. 

LD9 has one of the tightest advantages among highly competitive districts. The redistricting commission gives Democrats a 2.6% advantage over Republicans despite Republicans leading in voter registration. 

Legislative District 13

The Chandler district of LD13 was another that lost all Democratic representation in the Legislature in 2024, with all three seats going to Republicans. 

Reps. Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler; and Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, both defeated their Democratic opponents, Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, in 2024, as both Republicans received nearly 26% of the vote each to lead all candidates in that race.

Willoughby is now seeking to flip chambers as Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, will be termed out of his seat after this year. Weninger is running for Chandler Mayor, and current Republican Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke is running for the state House in LD13. The only other candidate running for Senate in the district is Democrat Kristie O’Brien.

Weninger’s wife, Janet Weninger, announced in September she’s running for the state House as a Republican in the district. 

“As a mom, foster care advocate, and entrepreneur, I have spent my life helping others succeed. Arizona is well-positioned for success, but there is more work to be done. From repairing the Department of Child Safety, to fighting for law enforcement, to ensuring parents can make decisions in the best interest of their kids, our best days lie ahead,” Janet Weninger said in a statement when she launched her campaign.

Reese and Democrat Racquel Armstrong will be running for the House and Republicans Debra Schinke and Joe Granado have also filed statements of interest for House seats.

Despite Republicans accounting for almost 36% of registered voters in the district, LD13 has an even tighter redistricting commission vote spread than LD9, with Republicans holding a 1.56% advantage in the highly competitive district. Democrats make up about 27% of registered voters in the district.

Legislative District 16

Republicans also took all three seats in LD16, which includes Casa Grande. 

Former Democratic state Rep. Keith Seaman lost his 2024 bid for reelection by about 2.5% of votes to Rep. Chris Lopez, R-Casa Grande. Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande, took home the most votes in the House race and Seaman’s daughter, Stacey Seaman, lost to Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, by 12% of votes.

Shope is running for re-election and Democrat Elaine Aldrete is the only other candidate in the Senate race. 

De Los Santos said some districts would only see one Democratic candidate running as a “single-shot” candidate for the House in an attempt to focus the voter pool on one candidate for at least one House seat. Only Democrat Dean Dill has filed paperwork to run for the House, while Martinez and Lopez are the only Republicans who are running so far. 

About one-third of registered voters in the district are Republicans and 27% are Democrats. LD16 is another one of the redistricting commission’s highly competitive districts and Republicans have a 3.62% advantage. 

Legislative District 17 and Legislative District 23

Neither of these districts is considered competitive by the redistricting commission, but both saw upset victories over the parties that held advantages in each. 

In LD17, which includes Oro Valley, Marana and Tucson, Rep. Kevin Volk, D-Tucson, beat former Republican Rep. and Freedom Caucus member Cory McGarr by more than 2% of votes in the district as a single-shot candidate despite Republicans holding more than 8% advantage in the district, according to the redistricting commission. 

Volk is running for re-election along with his seatmate, Rep. Rachel Jones, R-Tucson. Democrat Matthew Coelho has also filed a statement of interest for a House race, but Democrats narrowly lost to McGarr and Keshel in 2022 when they ran two House candidates instead of single-shotting. 

Republicans Kirk Fiehler, Avery Block and John Winchester have also filed statements of interest for the House. 

Sen. Vince Leach, R-Tucson, is not seeking re-election in LD17. He beat the late Democrat John McLean by 2% of votes shortly before McLean’s death. 

Republicans Christopher King and Anthony Dunham have filed paperwork to run for the Senate in LD17, along with Democrat Hunter Holt.

In LD23, Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma, has won both her 2024 and 2022 elections despite Democrats having nearly a 17% advantage, according to the redistricting commission. Pena was the top vote-getter in the district’s House race with more than 34% of votes while Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Yuma, took the other House seat.

Pena is joined by two other Republicans, Gary Garcia Snyder and James Holmes, in filing paperwork to run for the House. Sandoval is running for re-election and Democrats Emilia Cortez and Juan Manuel Guerrero are also running for the House.

Burch holding onto her LD9 Senate seat

Sen. Eva Burch, D-Mesa, is fending off another challenge from Republican Robert Scantlebury in Legislative District 9, according to initial election returns. 

Burch and Scantlebury went head-to-head in 2022, too, with Burch ultimately prevailing by about 3,000 votes, or 5%. As of election night, Burch had secured 53.6% of the vote, compared to Scantlebury’s 46.44%, with 2,929 votes separating the two candidates. 

Per the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, Legislative District 9, covering Mesa and Chandler, leans Democratic, but only by about 2.6%, making it a highly competitive race. 

Burch, a nurse, ran on a platform prioritizing health care access and affordability. 

Over the course of her re-election campaign, Burch found herself under a national media spotlight after pushing for the repeal of the state’s 1864 abortion ban. On the Senate floor in March, Burch told of her own non-viable pregnancy and plan to seek an abortion. 

Her platform also incorporates a call for higher public education funding and affordable housing. She previously told the Arizona Capitol Times her key priorities upon taking office would be to reign in the Empowerment Scholarship Account program by way of an enrollment cap. 

She secured endorsements from Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, Save Our Schools Arizona and Arizona Education Association Fund. 

Scantlebury, a former Mesa police officer, centered public safety in his campaign, making a pledge to “empower local law enforcement, address serious mental illness appropriately, and work to stop human trafficking and the flow of drugs coming across our border.” 

He defined himself on his campaign website as pro-life and noted support for exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother, but generally expressed support for the existing 15-week limit. 

On education, Scantlebury noted his support for school choice programs, noting his experience as a school board member of a non-profit public charter school as well as his general support for ESA.  

Over the course of the election cycle, Scantlebury brought in about $112,686 and spent $136,796. As for outside spending, he’s seen about $33,000 spent in support and $39,800 spent to oppose him.

Burch brought in $225,426 in income, spent $241,929 and saw about $274,500 spent in support and $159,806 spent to oppose her candidacy.

Austin, Blattman leading LD9 races

Both first-term Democrat state representatives seeking re-election to the state House in Legislative District 9 are leading their races against two GOP opponents after early results on election night. 

By approximately 9:30 p.m., Democrat Reps. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa; and Seth Blattman, D-Mesa, have received 27.27% and 26.07% of votes, respectively. 

The two Democrats lead Republican challengers Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza. Barber has received 23.36% of votes, and Mendoza has received 23.31% of votes. 

Republicans hold a 31-29 majority in the House. Unseating either or both Democrats in LD9 would be insurance in the party’s goal of keeping the majority. 

LD9 is the only swing district in the state where all three legislative seats went to Democrats in the 2022 race. 

The west Mesa district leans Democratic with a 2.6% vote spread favoring Democrats in recent elections, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 

This is Mendoza’s second attempt running against Blattman and Austin. In 2022, Blattman beat the third-place runner-up Kathy Pearce by little more than half a percent. Mendoza finished trailing Blattman by about 1.5% of votes.

Republicans this year are running Barber as a business-friendly candidate, similar to Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge; or Rep. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix, in other swing districts of the state. 

The two Republicans running in LD9 this year haven’t campaigned together. The Arizona Republic reported Sunday that the Arizona Republican Party received $22,000 from Barber’s campaign to help circulate mailers encouraging voters to vote only Barber as a single-shot candidate in the district, which drew the ire of Freedom Caucus Chairman Sen. Jake Hoffman, R-Queen Creek. 

“If the Democrats sweep both LD9 House seats with Mary Ann Mendoza only losing by a very small margin those losses will fall squarely on the shoulders of the AZGOP for blunders like this,” Hoffman wrote in a post on X about the mailers.

2 Republicans fight for LD9 and GOP’s future

In the competitive Legislative District 9, where Democrats hold all the state legislative seats, two Republican candidates represent different approaches and a fight for their party’s soul. 

Opposing them are a pair of Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives who seek second terms. The Democratic duo’s 2022 victories ensured their party held all three of the district’s seats at a time when both chambers had one-seat Republican majorities. 

Reps. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa, and Seth Blattman, D-Mesa, will face Republicans Mary Ann Mendoza and Kylie Barber this November.

Tyler Montague, an East Valley Republican consultant, said he believes Barber’s style of candidacy appeals more to swing district voters than Republican candidates who have run in the district since the state was redistricted. 

“If Republicans have a chance in that district, it’s Kylie Barber,” Montague said.

Barber is endorsed by the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce and is running as a bipartisan-friendly candidate. Her campaign website includes photos of her with Rep. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix, and Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge – two lawmakers also in swing districts who voted to overturn the state’s 1864 abortion ban.

“People are looking for a type of leadership that’s positive, that’s sort of a happy warrior and is not polarizing but unifying,” Barber said. “People are sick of the polarization.”

Mendoza has received controversial attention in recent years. She was removed as a speaker from a 2020 Republican National Convention event after she shared antisemitic conspiracy posts. Medoza apologized, saying she didn’t read every post in the then-Twitter thread before sharing it.

Shortly before the 2022 election, photos of Mendoza apparently in blackface in 2011 and 2012 surfaced. 

Despite Mendoza and Barber running on the Republican ticket in the district, the two are not campaigning together. Mendoza appeared on a Rumble video shortly after the primary election on July 30, calling Barber a “Democratic plant,” and criticized former GOP gubernatorial candidate Karrin Robson Taylor’s support for Barber. 

“(Robson Taylor) is helping a candidate who knows nothing, who is nothing, who is a Democratic plant,” Mendoza said.

While Barber is more closely aligned with bipartisan-friendly Republicans, Mendoza is endorsed by Freedom Caucus Rep. Barbara Parker, R-Mesa. Parker advised voters to only cast ballots for Mendoza as a single-shot attempt to take one of the district’s seats. 

“We have to do this! Dems hold both house seats. We will not be able to flip both seats. MENDOZA is the front runner with experience and name ID, and the best candidate who is ready on day one,” Parker wrote in a Facebook post on May 9. 

According to the secretary of state’s s most recent voter registration report in July, Republicans hold a 34,000 to 31,000 advantage in registered voters in LD9. However, an additional 39,000 votes were designated as “other.”

“Republicans are going to vote for the Republican ticket. (Barber) gains nothing by co-branding herself with future Arizona Freedom Caucus members if they were to be elected,” Montague said.

In 2022, Blattman and Austin beat Mendoza and Kathy Pearce, the sister of former Senate President and SB1070 architect Russell Pearce. 

Mendoza received the fewest number of votes in the 2022 LD9 House race, falling behind Blattman by about 1.4% of votes. Blattman beat Pearce by 0.7% of votes while Austin got the most votes in the district and finished about 1.3% higher than Blattman. 

Most swing districts in the state have bipartisan representation. LD9 is the only district where Democrats won all three legislative seats in 2022. 

Both Blattman and Austin told the Arizona Capitol Times that their priority in office has been to represent all their constituents regardless of party affiliation.

“It’s a purple district,” Blattman said. “It rejects extremism on either side of the aisle.”

The two Democratic incumbents also pointed to their records during their first terms despite being in the Legislature’s minority party. Austin said she was proud to help fund the Arizona Promise Program in the 2023 state budget. 

Gov. Katie Hobbs also considered the program a priority, and it was appropriated $40 million,  which helped cover university tuition costs and fees for qualifying students. Austin said she was able to secure half of the program’s funding during budget negotiations in her first session. 

During Blattman’s first year, he secured funding for the Micro-Business Loan program, which supports businesses with five or fewer employees.

“We each got something pretty substantial in our freshman year in a minority,” Austin said. 

Barber and Mendoza have also taken a different stance on their opponents. Barber said she entered the race because she was seeking a more “complete” representation of the district but spoke very highly of Blattman and Austin.

“(Austin) has great energy and I say that genuinely. I just did not see the way that their votes reflected what I knew Mesa to be,” Barber said. 

Other Republicans, including Mendoza, have targeted Austin for being a more progressive candidate. 

Austin announced during a committee she is nonbinary.House Speaker Ben Toma, R-Peoria, revoked Democrats’ privileges to use House conference rooms after Austin hosted a “Drag Story Hour.”

Mendoza called Austin a “Pro-Hamas, child groomer” in the July 30 Rumble video.

Despite that rhetoric from some opponents, Austin still prioritizes ensuring representation for all her constituents. 

“My door is always open and I’ll take a meeting with anyone. We’re here for everybody in this district, regardless of what party you belong to,” Austin said.

LD 9 Democrat defends Senate seat against same GOP foe

The race for the Legislative District 9 Senate seat is a rematch between former police officer Robert Scantlebury, a Republican, and incumbent Sen. Eva Burch, D-Mesa, but  a GOP consultant said the competitive district will favor the Democrat candidate who garnered national attention during the recent legislative session. 

Burch, a newcomer at the time, defeated her Republican challenger in 2022. Scantlebury, a former Mesa police officer, lost by more than 3,000 votes.

His bid for the seat comes on heels of a legislative session where Burch garnered national attention for sharing her experience with needing an abortion due to a nonviable pregnancy. 

Burch played a key role during the 2024 legislative session in the Democrats’ effort to repeal the state’s near-total ban on abortion that would become state law after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Roe v. Wade was no longer valid. 

Burch is a nurse who has focused on health care related issues since taking office, and said her experience as a nurse has highlighted issues that are close to her. 

If she is re-elected to the Senate, Burch said one of the first bills she plans to reintroduce would be one to lower the cost of prescription medications for Arizonans, widening the scope to include those who are not Medicare patients. 

“Health care expenses are certainly high on the list of what people are paying for that keep them from being able to meet the needs of their families,” Burch said. 

She said health care affordability is part of the bigger issue of the cost of living in Arizona. Housing cost is another high priority issue in her district, which covers much of east and central Mesa, and finding permanent solutions will require bipartisanship, she said. 

“There’s never going to be a bill that specifies everyone and all the stakeholders, so if we want to get them (housing-related bills) across the finish line, we need to have the right leadership in place in the House and the Senate that will not obstruct the legislation for arbitrary reasons,” Burch said. 

Reigning in the Empowerment Scholarship Accounts program would be another step to take to improve Arizona’s economy, Burch said. An enrollment cap — with some exceptions — would help balance the state’s budget and allow more spending in public education, she said. 

As the incumbent prepares for her general election rematch with Scantlebury, her image has become closely tied to the pro-choice movement, particularly through her backing of the proposed Arizona Abortion Access Act, which seeks to legalize abortions up to fetal viability in most cases. 

After making national headlines for sharing her abortion story on the Senate floor, Burch said she is feeling “even more passionate” as she knocks on doors and hears from constituents who share similar experiences. 

However, she warned that voter approval of the pro-abortion proposition in November should not be the only thing motivating Arizonans at the ballot box. 

“I can’t stress enough how important it is that we have pro-choice candidates in the Legislature, and we have pro-choice judges, because the constitutional amendment is not going to be the end of the story in Arizona,” Burch said. 

On the other hand, Scantlebury’s campaign has focused on border security, public safety, school choice and lowering the cost of living. The Republican candidate has taken a similar approach in this campaign as he did two years ago. 

When it comes to housing affordability, Scantlebury wants to remove regulatory guardrails for homeowners, according to his campaign website. 

“Neighborhoods are often harmed by the presence of AirBnBs or homes that are converted to businesses,” Scantlebury’s campaign website reads. “With the right regulatory and economic policies, we will put ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren in a better position to succeed.”

Scantlebury had the endorsement of current U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake during the 2022 election cycle, and has the backing of the Homebuilder’s Association and the Mesa Police Association. 

His bid to unseat Burch has brought in $10,000 in donations from the Freedom Club Political Action Committee, but his on-hand balance is slim in comparison to the incumbent. Scantlebury had $29,931 on hand, as of pre-primary campaign finance reports, while Burch held a significant lead with $130,081 on hand. 

GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said Scantlebury’s luck in the race is slim to none. “It’s not possible,” he said, noting that the competitive district has turned even more blue since the 2022 election cycle. 

Coughlin said the presidential election will increase turnout from young voters, further stacking the odds against Scantlebury in the district that favors Democrat candidates by 2.6%, according to the Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Though the district is considered highly competitive, Scantlebury does not have the same appeal that a more moderate GOP candidate could, he said. 

“I think the people representing that district right now are reflective of what that district is,” Coughlin said. “Republicans keep running MAGA-esque candidates that can’t appeal to that district, I just don’t see it.” 

Scantlebury did not respond to multiple requests from the Arizona Capitol Times for an interview prior to deadline.

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