Hillary Clinton is now ahead in Arizona, three separate polls conducted within days of each other show.
The live-caller polls delivered sobering news to Donald Trump’s campaign in Arizona, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996.
The polls have Trump trailing by a wide margin among women voters. In one of the polls, Clinton is pulling even with Trump among men. And in the most recent poll, she’s ahead by a few points, although some were skeptical of its methodology.
One of the polls, conducted by the lobbying firm HighGround and involving 400 respondents, has Clinton pulling ahead, 38.5 percent to Trump’s 36.5 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 8.3 percent and the number of undecided voters down to 7 percent.
It also shows Clinton winning the vote among all demographics except those 65 and older, and that’s trouble for Trump, said HighGround principal Chuck Coughlin.
The HighGround poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.88 percentage points.
Coughlin said despite several visits, Trump’s is failing to impress the state’s voters.
It’s also telling that Trump is only up by two points in Arizona’s Fifth Congressional District, a conservative bastion with the highest concentration of Mormon voters in the state.
In contrast, U.S. Sen. John McCain is up 13 points against Democratic challenger Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, in CD5, according to the poll.
“Arizona is clearly in play and with the significant [investment] by the Clinton campaign, can definitely turn blue,” Coughlin said.
A few days earlier, a live-caller poll by consulting firm Data Orbital showed Clinton up by a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent, with only 6 percent undecided and 5 percent for Johnson.
“Early voting begins in Arizona this week, and our track polling shows that many races will come down to the age and party of voters that turn out,” pollster George Khalaf said in a memo released with the poll.
The poll surveyed 550 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.12 percentage points. Half of the respondents were interviewed by landline, and the other half by cellphone.
A third poll, released by the Arizona Republic on Oct. 19, showed Clinton with a 5.1 point lead, which was statistically outside of the margin of error.
Meanwhile, it appears that the Clinton campaign is making a push in Arizona, where it is diverting $2 million to and sending a series of high-profile surrogates to stump for her.
Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Clinton and Michelle Obama are all campaigning in Arizona this week, and Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook told reporters today that the campaign will spend the $2 million on television ads, direct mail and support for down-ticket races.
“This is a state that would really foreclose a way for Donald Trump to win the White House,”Mook said. He also said it was possible that Clinton herself could end up campaigning here. Trump still holds a one-point lead over Clinton in the RealClearPolitics polling average, but two of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting models give Clinton a roughly 54 percent chance of winning the state. (The third model, the outlet’s most conservative, gives Trump a less than 57 percent chance of winning Arizona.)
Coughlin said if Clinton’s campaign makes a play for Arizona, she has a “strong” chance of winning.
The lobbyist said sending Sanders, Michelle Obama and Chelsea Clinton appears to be geared toward turning out groups of voters that are leaning toward Clinton.
“They’re clearly looking at motivating that portion of electorate, which they can do. If you look at the numbers here, there is tremendous amount of upside for them to turn that constituency out,” he said. And the effect of that is amplified because “Trump doesn’t seem to have that in terms of expanding.”
Editor Jim Small contributed in this article.