Legislative District 16 is one of the key competitive districts in the election despite not getting big spending from either party compared to other competitive districts, but it could provide a chance for Democrats to steal a seat in the state House of Representatives.

The district leans Republican and covers a large portion of Pinal County and the cities of Maricopa, Eloy, Coolidge and Florence. With two GOP incumbents running in the district, the advantage should be Republican, but current Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande, said the primary results concern her.

“I came in last (during the primary),” Martinez said. “They do (concern me).”

Martinez got fewer votes than both her Democratic challenger Keith Seaman and running mate Rob Hudelson. Seaman received 14,973 votes and Hudelson got 14,351 votes. Martinez, who was appointed to the seat last session, received the fewer votes at 13,647. Those were the only three candidates who ran for House seats in the district.

The other incumbent running in the district is Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge. Democratic newcomer Taylor Kerby is running against Shope. Shope said there was a chance Seaman could steal Martinez’s seat but he’s as worried about his own race. Shope received 4,005 more votes than Kerby in the primary and told the Yellow Sheet Report, a sister publication of the Arizona Capitol Times, “It seems like the Dems are busier elsewhere.”

Two Democratic political consultants, Chad Campbell and Steven Slugocki, agreed that the district is competitive.

“Oh (it’s) definitely a competitive district,” Slugocki said.

According to Independent Redistricting Commission data, voters went for Democratic candidates 48.2% of the time in District 16 and Republican candidates 51.8% in 2020.

Campbell said the biggest group of voters who will affect swing districts is independent women, particularly because of recent abortion bans leading up to the midterm election.

“That’s going to be the key to everything this cycle, quite frankly. Where do those independent women and kind of moderate Republican women break?” Campbell said.

Republicans and Democrats haven’t spent as much money for the district’s House race compared to other competitive districts, according to the state’s campaign finance reports. Seaman has fundraised $93,761 and received $136,679 in independent expenditures, while outside groups have spent $16,406 against him.

Hudelson raised just $57,606 and benefitted from $45,647 in independent expenditures. Martinez raised $82,670 and benefitted from $43,949 in independent expenditures. While outside groups only spent $31 against Hudelson, Martinez has seen $12,756 campaigning against her and nearly all of it is coming from one group.

U.S. Term Limits, an interest group advocating for congressional term limits, recently started campaigning against Martinez and is one of Hudelson’s biggest contributors. The group spent $17,396 campaigning for Hudelson and spent the same amount supporting Seaman. Of the $12,756 spent against Martinez, U.S. Term Limits contributed $11,597.

Martinez said she believes U.S. Term Limits is retaliating against her after she voted against a term limits resolution that Rep. David Cook, R-Globe, proposed in 2022. Cook’s resolution failed in the House Government and Elections Committee on a 9-4 vote and Martinez said U.S. Term Limits is blaming her for causing Reps. Judy Burges, R-Skull Valley; and John Fillmore, R-Apache Junction, to vote “no” on the resolution after she asked questions about it in a committee hearing.

When a colleague told Martinez she could get a check from the organization if she “softened her stance,” she said it only made her want to oppose U.S. Term Limits even more.

“I am not going to be bribed, and I’m not going to be bullied by U.S. Term Limits. I’m going to stand up and do the right thing for the people in LD16,” Martinez said.

She also said Hudelson is not collaborating with Seaman and has had to explain to Republican colleagues that he’s not sure why U.S. Term Limits is funding Seaman. Hudelson did not return a phone call asking for further clarification.

U.S. Term Limits states on its website that the organization is trying to get 34 state legislatures to pass resolutions to call a convention for the states to propose a congressional term limits constitutional amendment. Martinez said she thinks there are more pressing issues a convention of states should address, including mandating that Congress balance the federal budget.