Both incumbent Republicans in Legislative District 17’s state House race trail a Democrat early after Tuesday’s initial election night results.

Democrat Kevin Volk leads both Reps. Rachel Jones, R-Tucson; and Cory McGarr, R-Tucson, at approximately 8:45 p.m.

Volk has received 38.54% of votes in the race while Jones has received 31.37%. McGarr sits just behind Jones with 30.09%.

The race can’t be concluded until more votes have been counted.

Democrats are heavily targeting LD17 after a surprising 2022 when McGarr beat the third-place runner-up Democrat Dana Allmond by just under 1% of votes. Jones beat Allmond by about 1.5% of votes. 

Democrats ran two candidates in the district in 2022 but this year, Volk is running as a single-shot candidate to try and pick up a seat in a Republican district that sits outside the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s competitive analysis. 

Republicans hold over an 8% advantage in vote spread favoring their candidates in the district, but some big-name Democrats won the district in 2022, including Sen. Mark Kelly, Gov. Katie Hobbs and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. 

“We’ve always believed that it’s a candidate for at least one Democrat winning the House if they single-shot it,” said GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin. 

Jones and McGarr winning in the district would help foiling Democrat attempts at taking the state House in 2025. Republicans hold a 31-29 majority in the chamber and the district is key for both parties. Both Republican representatives are Freedom Caucus members and their primary election running mate, Sen. Justine Wadsack, R-Tucson, lost to former Sen. Vince Leach in the GOP primary.