Key Points

• Attorney General Kris Mayes cleared Gov. Katie Hobbs of wrongdoing in pay-to-play probe

• Political consultants say the findings will boost Hobbs’ reelection campaign

• Congressman Andy Biggs can only capitalize on the scandal if he can fund attack ads

Attorney General Kris Mayes cleared Gov. Katie Hobbs of any criminal wrongdoing in the Sunshine Residential pay-to-play scandal, giving the governor’s reelection campaign some relief heading into the November election.

On Friday, Mayes released the long-awaited results of her investigation into allegations that a Hobbs campaign donor received favorable rate increases for his group home from the Department of Child Safety. The allegations stemmed from a 2024 investigation by the Arizona Republic. 

“After two years and hundreds of hours of investigation, agents have not found evidence to substantiate a pay-for-play scheme involving Governor Hobbs and Sunshine,” wrote Nick Klingerman, the chief counsel of the Attorney General’s criminal division. “Accordingly, there is no evidence to establish a reasonable likelihood of conviction for bribery or any other related offenses.”

Political consultants of all party stripes say the findings will likely help Hobbs as Election Day draws nearer, even if her Republican opponent, Congressman Andy Biggs, continues to hammer her with the allegations.

“If there was a single poll that showed Andy Biggs ahead, I think we’d be having a different conversation,” said Democratic consultant Stacy Pearson. 

Every poll conducted after Biggs won the July 21 Republican primary has shown the governor slightly or greatly ahead of the congressman. On Thursday, local polling outfit Noble Predictive Insights released a survey showing Hobbs with a 13-point lead.

Chuck Coughlin, an independent who runs HighGround Public Affairs, said the attorney general’s announcement won’t put the issue to bed entirely, though.

“It will continue to dog her,” Coughlin said. “The [Biggs] campaign and others will dog her for it, but I don’t see it having a significant shape, if any, on the electorate at all.”

Biggs’ campaign has already tried to cast doubt on the results of the investigation, since Hobbs and Mayes are aligned politically. But it is no secret that the two Democratic officials are not close allies.

“If any Democrat was going to seriously investigate Hobbs, it would probably be Kris Mayes, as they are publicly warm-ish to each other, but privately frigid toward each other,” said GOP public relations consultant Barrett Marson. “There’s no love between the two of them.”

Marson argued that Biggs could still hang the issue around Hobbs’ neck — if he has enough campaign cash to blast the pay-to-play allegations across Arizona’s airwaves.

“It’s up to the Biggs campaign to build on public reporting and get it into the mainstream, get it in front of voters’ eyes,” Marson said.

While Hobbs has flooded TV, streaming services and social media with her campaign ads, Biggs’ team has resorted to a flurry of digital-only ads. 

Hobbs’ campaign dropped a cool $7.4 million in the three months leading up to the July primary election, the bulk of which went toward the ads now reaching voters. Though the spend drained her campaign coffers, the Democratic Governors Association swept in with a $10 million investment in July.

Biggs was left with around $1.2 million in cash on hand after the primary, but the Republican Governors Association has yet to announce a similar investment in Arizona. It leaves many consultants wondering if national groups are seeing the writing on the wall.

“All Biggs can do is scream into the ether of Twitter,” Marson said. “He doesn’t have any money for big TV [ads].”

The auditor general and Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell are still conducting separate investigations into the Sunshine allegations, though Mayes told reporters that her office was coordinating with Mitchell’s office. While the conclusion of those investigations could bring the issue back into the spotlight, consultants were doubtful it would have any further impact. 

Mitchell has endorsed Biggs’ run for the Ninth Floor, but Pearson characterized her as a professional focused on administering justice.

“Rachel Mitchell doesn’t have a reputation for politically motivated investigations,” Pearson said. “I would imagine it’d be the same finding.”

For Hobbs’ part, her office pointed to Mayes’ findings as proof of the narrative Hobbs has pushed since the Sunshine allegations came to light: the governor did not participate in a pay-to-play scheme.

“The report released today clearly states that there was no wrongdoing by the Governor or her office,” said Christian Slater, Hobbs’ spokesman. “As has been publicly reported multiple times and the Attorney General’s report now confirms: Governor Hobbs was not involved in, did not direct, and did not instruct any member of her administration regarding the rate increases the Department of Child Services approved.”