Democrats hold edge in state legislative races

Arizona’s Democratic state legislative candidates held onto early leads on election night, opening the possibility that Democrats may win majorities in both the state’s House and Senate next year.

As of 11 p.m. on Tuesday, 21 Democrats and nine Republicans were in position to take Senate seats while 38 Democrats and 22 Republicans could take House seats.

Republicans currently lead the House 33-27 and the Senate 17-13.

If results hold, it would be the first Democratic trifecta in state history. As of Tuesday night, Gov. Katie Hobbs was leading Republican Andy Biggs by double digits.

House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos, D-Laveen, declared victory for House and Senate Democrats Tuesday night during a Democratic election night watch party. 

“While we are not calling any individual races yet, we are thrilled to announce that there will be a Democratic trifecta,” De Los Santos said.

In-person votes are still being counted across the state, and they are expected to favor Republicans. 

LD 2
Incumbent Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, was trailing Tuesday night in a competitive state Senate race. Democrat Amelia Gallitano led Bolick by 58.43% to 41.49%. 

Both incumbent Reps. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix, and Stephanie Simacek, D-Phoenix, also lead the district’s House race for two seats. Simacek had 43.33%, and Wilmeth had 29.32% on Tuesday night, while Republican candidate Paul Carver trailed both with 27.01% of the vote. 

LD 4
A former Democratic legislator seeking a return to the state Capitol was leading Tuesday night over Republican Sen. Carine Werner, R-Scottsdale, in one of Arizona’s pivotal state Senate races.

As of 11 p.m. on Tuesday, former state Rep. Aaron Lieberman led Werner 55.81%-44.12%.

The Scottsdale seat is one of the most competitive Senate seats in the entire state. The race between Lieberman and Werner saw the most money spent of any legislative race leading into the general election. 

The district’s House race is also one of the more competitive state legislative races. Both Republican incumbents, Reps. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, and Pamela Carter, R-Scottsdale, trailed their Democratic opponents. 

Democrats Tammy Caputi and Karen Gresham lead the district with 28.01% and 27.93% of the vote, respectively. Gress and Carter have received 22.86% and 21.16% of votes.

LD 9
Democrats hold three state legislative seats in a competitive West Mesa district, and they led early on election night. 

Incumbent Sen. Kiana Sears, D-Mesa, led her Republican opponent, Bridget Fitzgibbons, 62.46% to 37.48%.

Legislative District 9 is one of the state’s competitive legislative districts, but its voters haven’t elected a Republican to the state Legislature since Arizona’s districts were redrawn in 2021.

For the district’s two House seats, incumbent Rep. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa, and Democrat Jacob Martinez lead with 37.96% and 37.61% of the vote, respectively.

Republican Bradley Bettencourt, the only Republican running for a House seat in the district, trailed the two Democrats with 24.05% of the vote.  

LD 13
Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, trailed Tuesday night in her bid for the state Senate in a competitive district.

Willoughby is attempting to switch chambers from the House, but her opponent Kristie O’Brien led 57.05%-42.90%.

Democrats Rockee Armstrong and Jacob Weinberg also led the district’s House race over Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke and Janet Weninger, the wife of Rep. Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler. 

Armstrong and Weinberg received 28.29% and 28.15% of the vote, respectively, while Hartke got 22.55% and Weninger got 20.97%.

LD 14
Several Republicans in the Gilbert-area district of Legislative District 14 also trailed on election night, including Mylie Biggs, Andy Biggs’ daughter. 

Democrat Stephanie Walsh leads Mylie Biggs 54.97%-44.96% in the district’s state Senate race. LD 14 has been a Republican-leaning district since 2021 and has only elected Republican candidates to the Legislature since the state’s legislative districts were redrawn.

Democrat Mary Rose also led both her Republican opponents, Tyler Farnsworth and Rep. Laurin Hendrix, R-Gilbert, for the district’s House seats. 

Rose got 37.44% of the vote while Farnsworth received 31.34%. Hendrix has 30.85% of the vote and is facing defeat if results hold. 

LD 16
Incumbent Republican Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, also trailed early on election night.

Shope is a candidate for Senate President if Republicans hold the Senate, but Democrat Democrat Elaine Aldrete led 52.88%-47%. Shope is seeking his final legislative term at the state Capitol.

Shope’s seat is Legislative District 16, one of the state’s competitive legislative districts and a key district for both parties. Republicans flipped a House seat in 2024 to add to the GOP House majority, but incumbent Rep. Chris Lopez, R-Casa Grande, trails in the race.

Democrat Julia Gusse led all House candidates with 38.23% of the vote. Rep. Teresa Martinez, D-Casa Grande, received 31.55% of votes while Rep. Chris Lopez, R-Casa Grande, got 29.75%.

LD 17
Democratic candidates in a key Tucson-area legislative district lead early on election night, providing a potential pickup for House and Senate Democrats in their bid to flip both legislative chambers. 

Democrat Edgar Soto leads Republican Christopher King in the Legislative District 17 Senate race 58.25%-41.66%. Sen. Vince Leach, R-Tucson, is retiring and not running for re-election. 

The district has become a key competitive district for both parties in recent years. Leach won his 2024 race by two points, and Rep. Kevin Volk, D-Tucson, flipped a Republican seat in the 2024 general election. 

On Tuesday, Volk led all House candidates with 29.11% of the vote. His running mate Holly Lyon received 29.03% of the vote for the district’s second House seat. Republican John Winchester received 21.3% of votes and Rep. Rachel Keshel, R-Tucson, got 20.52%.

LD 23
An incumbent Republican representative in a Democratic leaning legislative district trails early Tuesday. 

Rep. Michele Peña, R-Yuma, trails both incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Goodyear, and Democrat Emilia Cortez.

Sandoval received 32.09% of votes and Cortez got 32.07, while Peña trailed with 18.77%.

Peña won her 2022 and 2024 House races despite running in a district which the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission gives Democrats about a 17-point advantage over Republican candidates. 

But Peña has never had a running mate in the district until this election cycle. Republican Gary Garcia Snyder also trails both Democrats with 17.% of the vote. 

LD 27
A couple of Republican candidates in the Peoria district of Legislative District 27 also trailed on election night in a district that has not seen a Democrat elected to the state Legislature since districts were redrawn. 

Democrat Kyle Clayon leads Sen. Kevin Payne, R-Peoria, 55.04%-44.86%.

The district’s only Democrat running for a House seat, Deborah Howard, also led both her Republican opponents, Reps. Lisa Fink and Tony Rivero, on Tuesday. Howard received 38.80% of the vote while Fink and Rivero got 30.67% and 30.17%, respectively, which could make the district’s second House seat a contest between two Republicans if Howard maintains her lead.

Other races
Democrat Christine Scianna received the most votes in the Legislative District 29 House race, another Republican leaning district. House Speaker Steve Montenegro, R-Goodyear, holds the second House seat with 32.79% of votes, while Rep. James Taylor, R-Litchfield Park, trails with 31.79%. 

Rep. Nick Kupper, R-Surprise, trailed Democrat Tiffany Byrne in the Legislative District 25 House race, and Sen. Janae Shamp trailed Democrat Eric Stafford in the Legislative District 29 Senate race, but both Republicans are within half a percent, with votes still to count.