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Tag: Karrin Taylor Robson

Taylor Robson quits Arizona governor’s race

Key Points:
  • Karrin Taylor Robson ended her campaign for the Republican nomination for governor
  • Taylor Robson warned Republicans must avoid a “divisive primary”
  • U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert are now the main contenders in the primary

Karrin Taylor Robson suspends her campaign for governor, citing her desire to avoid a “divisive Republican primary.” 

In a statement, Taylor Robson said she is stepping back from the race to help the Republican Party win back the governorship from incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. 

“… we cannot afford a divisive Republican primary that drains resources and turns into months of intraparty attacks,” Taylor Robson said. “It only weakens our conservative cause and gives the left exactly what they want: a fractured Republican Party heading into November. With so much on the line in 2026, I am not willing to contribute to that outcome.”

Taylor Robson’s exit leaves U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert as the main contenders for the Republican nomination to lead the top of the ticket in Arizona. The state’s primary is set for July 28. 

“I want to thank Karrin Taylor Robson for a well-run campaign and for her many contributions to keeping our state red,” Biggs wrote in a post on X. “This is a critical time for our party to unite and avoid a costly, divisive primary as the weak and ineffective Katie Hobbs continues to hurt Arizonans.”

Meanwhile, Hobbs’ campaign took a victory lap in a statement from her campaign manager Nicole DeMont.

“Karrin Taylor Robson saw the writing on the wall and knows that Gov. Katie Hobbs is going to win re-election because of her bipartisan record of lowering costs, securing the border, and protecting healthcare,” DeMont said. “No matter who emerges from this chaotic primary, we will stay focused on building a winning coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who believe in putting Arizona first.”

Taylor Robson ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in 2022, losing to Kari Lake. She entered the Republican primary for the 2026 election in February 2025 after President Donald Trump endorsed her at Turning Point USA’s 2024 conference in Phoenix. 

Trump’s endorsement of Robson drew ire from the more conservative members of the Arizona Republican Party, like Arizona Freedom Caucus Chair and Sen. Jake Hoffman. Eventually, Trump gave a second endorsement to Biggs when he launched his campaign in March.

Taylor Robson ran as a moderate, anti-Trump foil to the ultraconservative Lake in 2022, but attempted to court the president’s favor — and his voters — for her second gubernatorial run. However, many Republicans were wary of Taylor Robson’s shifting alliances and threw their support behind Biggs. 

Known for self-funding her campaigns, Taylor Robson had the largest campaign warchest in the Republican primary, with $1.2 million in cash on hand, according to campaign finance reports from January. Taylor Robson pledged to continue supporting Republican candidates in 2026 and much of her campaign cash will likely be funnelled to other races. 

Schweikert’s campaign did not release a statement or immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republican lawmakers and operatives took to social media to thank Taylor Robson for her work on the campaign and supporting Republican candidates and the party in Arizona. 

“I look forward to continuing to work with you in the future to hold the line and expand our majorities in the Arizona Senate & House,” Sen. T.J. Shope said in a post on X. “Let’s unite our party behind (Biggs) so we can win the big battle in November!”

Independent Party ‘disruptor’ enters race for governor

Key Points:
  • Hugh Lytle is running for governor as an Arizona Independent Party candidate
  • Independents are unlikely to be elected, but could play spoiler to other candidates
  • Gov. Katie Hobbs’ campaign is most likely to be impacted by Lytle’s candidacy, consultants say

An independent contender has entered Arizona’s competitive gubernatorial race, which could spell trouble for candidates in the state’s two major political parties.

On Jan. 26, local health care executive Hugh Lytle announced he would join a growing pool of challengers to incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs, but with the backing of the Arizona Independent Party. Three Republicans — business executive Karrin Taylor Robson, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert — are also hoping to unseat Hobbs. 

Lytle is the founder of Equality Health and several other health care organizations offering services to providers. He got his start in the Grand Canyon State as a quarterback at Arizona State University, but was forced to switch gears after breaking his collarbone during a scrimmage. 

Lytle describes himself as a disruptor hoping to “bridge the partisan divide” in Arizona and provide voters with more than two options on the ballot. 

“The two parties are trapped in a fight that never ends,” Lytle said in a press release announcing his candidacy. “They argue, posture, divide — but they don’t solve the big problems.” 

Political consultants and observers agree that independent candidates, whether they’re affiliated with the newly-created Arizona Independent Party or not, still have an uphill battle to get elected in Arizona. But they could have an outsized impact on the governor’s race by siphoning votes from Hobbs or whoever her eventual Republican challenger will be. 

Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs, said he believes Lytle’s campaign is more likely to negatively affect Hobbs than a potential Republican opponent.

“The conventional wisdom is that an independent candidate hurts a Democrat more than a Republican, because Republican voters are more loyal, more conservative, and older, and they tend to stick to their hometown team,” Coughlin said. 

And a candidate like Lytle has more potential for causing harm to Hobbs this year because of the “immediate ballot access” provided by the Arizona Independent Party, Coughlin said. 

Traditionally, “no party affiliated” has been considered Arizona’s designation for independent voters. Under state law, candidates running without party affiliation have to gather at least 44,539 petition signatures to qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, while candidates running as Republicans or Democrats only have to gather around 7,000 signatures.

Paul Johnson, a former Phoenix mayor, saw an opportunity to skirt the barrier to entry for independent candidates when the No Labels Party fizzled after its 2024 attempt to run a third-party candidate for president. Because No Labels is a recognized party in Arizona, its candidates only have to gather 1,288 signatures.

Johnson became chair of No Labels in 2025, quickly changed the party’s name to the Arizona Independent Party, and began recruiting candidates to run as independents. That name change is the subject of ongoing litigation brought by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission, the Arizona Republican Party and the Arizona Democratic Party, who all argue it will confuse voters who want to register as “no party affiliated.”

Johnson told reporters at a press conference on Jan. 27 that the AIP’s efforts will continue regardless of the outcome of the lawsuits, and the intention isn’t to draw voters away from major party candidates.

“Our goal, clearly, is not to be anti-Democrat or anti-Republican,” Johnson said. “We think both of those groups have something positive to offer, but so do independents.”

Given the tight margins in Arizona races in recent years and the decline in voter registration among Democrats, Hobbs and Democratic incumbents like Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes will need every independent vote they can get. In 2022, Hobbs beat Republican Kari Lake by just over 17,000 votes, while Mayes bested now-Congressman Abe Hamadeh by just 280 votes. 

As of January 2026, AIP has 41,484 registered voters — more than enough to have swayed either Hobbs’ or Mayes’ 2022 races. Over 1.4 million Arizonans are registered as “no party affiliated” and might also be interested in a third-party option.

“Some independents are going to be turned off by both the partisan D and the partisan R, and so they’ll vote for the third party candidate, where those votes historically … tend to go to the Democrats,” Coughlin said. 

However, Lytle shrugs off the suggestion that his candidacy will only serve as a spoiler for Hobbs or her eventual Republican challenger.

“I would say maybe that’s the case if we had 5% of the electorate, but we don’t,” Lytle said. “Recent Gallup polls show 44% of average Americans at least identify as being an independent, but they have no way to attach who’s their party leader, who’s someone who can represent the interest of independence. So spoiler, no, I think they’re spoiling me.” 

Still, Coughlin argued that even though more voters are registering without party affiliation in Arizona, the electorate is still “deeply partisan.” One Democratic consultant, speaking on background, agreed with Coughlin, noting that Arizona’s independents like to split their ballots and vote for a mix of Republicans and Democrats rather than a third-party candidate. 

That consultant said it is unlikely that Lytle will pose any real challenge to the major party candidates given the rocky launch of the AIP and its lack of resources. 

Coughlin also noted that despite the lower signature threshold for AIP candidates, both major parties will attempt to block them from the ballot in court through petition signature challenges. 

“They will use every lever at their disposal to make an independent campaign more and more difficult,” Coughlin said. “But the question becomes, what does an independent campaign have to do to be relevant? And really if you’re getting eight to 10% of the vote, you’re relevant.” 

Arizona’s unemployment rate hits highest since COVID pandemic

Key Points:

  • Incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs faces election with mixed economic indicators
  • Arizona’s unemployment rate at highest level since COVID pandemic
  • Arizona’s median home listing price has dropped from $525,000 to $470,000

Arizona hit its highest unemployment figure in November since the end of the COVID pandemic.

The 4.3% seasonally adjusted rate is not that much higher than the prior numbers, and it still is three-tenths of a point below the figure for the same month nationally, but the numbers are being closely watched as Arizona heads into a statewide election, with the bid by incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs to get another four-year term.

Her State of the State speech on Monday was an opportunity to argue that, overall, the economy has been good. And there have been a series of victories, including employment expansion by firms such as chipmaker TSMC, LG Energy Solutions, which is building a battery manufacturing complex, and Amkor Technology, which is involved in semiconductor packaging and testing. 

But the three Republicans hoping to get their party’s nod to face off against her are making the state’s economy an issue.

Doug Walls, chief economist for the state Office of Economic Opportunity, said the latest overall report is more of a “mixed bag,” with some bright signs.

Not the least of that, he said, is the fact that Arizona continues to outperform the national average.

Walls also said wages in Arizona are up by 6.4% since the same time last year, compared with a 4.3% boost nationally. Even with that, however, the average Arizonan is earning $35.46 an hour, which is $1.54 less than the national average.

There are other signs in the collection of numbers monitored by both OEO and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The overall number of people with jobs in Arizona continues to increase, but Walls said the rate of increase is slower than it was before the pandemic.

And it’s not just the unemployment numbers that indicate economic health.

One of those is the job openings rate, computed by dividing the number of job openings by total employment. That dropped to 4.8% in Arizona in the most recent month and is now far below the nearly 8% figure in 2023.

At the same time, the “hire rate,” determined by the number of new hires relative to total employment, is down to 3.2% from 3.8% a month earlier.

“It could be that employers are just less certain of the economic environment to come,” Walls said. “They’re just not hiring as many new individuals as opposed to really hurting and having to lay people off.”

All that, he said, is consistent with the higher unemployment rate.

But there’s another figure that is already becoming an issue in the 2026 governor’s race: how Arizona is doing compared to other states.

Just this past week, Republican Congressman Andy Biggs, running for governor, sent emails claiming that Arizona “fell to 47th nationally in job growth in 2025.” He called it “a stunning fall for a state recognized for its growing economy over the previous decade.”

And Karrin Taylor Robson, another GOP gubernatorial hopeful, has cited that same No. 47 figure while calling into a radio talk show where Hobbs was being interviewed, calling it “a precipitous decline in job growth and job creation.”

The only thing is, that number is based solely on job growth for just the first half of last year, with the state at that time shedding more jobs during several of those months than it created.

A more realistic figure is year-over-year growth.

There is, in fact, some data to show how weak the economy was at that time. In fact, even the OEO website shows Arizona at No. 41 for job growth from June 2024 to June 2025.

That figure, however, can be misleading based on the time period covered.

For example, that same chart shows Arizona’s most recent figures year over year at No. 22.

But Biggs isn’t the only one picking and choosing what numbers to use.

As recently as Friday, Hobbs claimed that Arizona had the eighth highest job growth in the nation, at least in private sector employment.

That figure she chose to use, however, is not the most recent but instead covers the 12 months ending in September. The most recent report has Arizona at No. 16 in private sector job growth.

Still, there are trends.

In 2019, Arizona ranked first in the country in overall job growth. And in 2022, the year before Hobbs took office, Arizona was No. 8.

Congressman David Schweikert, the third Republican in the hunt for the GOP nomination, hasn’t used that No. 47 claim, but did say in a TV interview that Arizona used to be “a golden gem of wage growth, prosperity, affordability.” 

“Almost none of those things are true today,” he said.

The latest unemployment numbers are composed of several factors.

“There was softer growth in retail trade,” Walls said, something he said is not surprising.

He said COVID disrupted the service side of the industry — think movies, restaurants and hairdressers — so people spent more on actual retail goods. That also generated a particular boost in employment in warehousing and related industries as people ordered more online for home delivery.

Walls also said that this created a “pull forward” effect, with consumers during that time buying things they might otherwise have put off. And that, in turn, means they need less now.

Also recording below-average gains is the state’s construction industry, particularly residential and multi-family apartments. In fact, the number of building permits issued dropped sharply in August and, according to the most recent figures, is down more than 49% from a year earlier.

“A lot of those larger projects are going to be interest-rate sensitive,” Walls said. “And with continued elevated interest rates at the national level, that is starting to see that play out and have some effects on those larger projects.”

But there are other effects of the higher interest rates.

“Housing inventories are up,” Walls said, referring to the number of homes on the market. There has also been an upward trend in how long it takes a home to sell.

And that all has occurred even as home prices have slid.

The median listing price in mid-2022 in the Phoenix area, as monitored by Realtor.com, was $525,000. Now that figure is below $470,000.

Walls said buyers are sitting on the sidelines.

“They’re just more willing to kind of wait it out to see if interest rates continue to go down or if prices continue to come down,” he said.

Some measures are being taken at the state level to make housing more affordable.

In 2024, lawmakers approved and Hobbs signed what’s known as a “middle housing” law. The measure, which took effect just this month, requires cities to allow duplexes, triplexes, quadplexes and townhomes in some areas now zoned for single-family homes.

That same year, however, Hobbs vetoed a “starter home act” that would have restricted the ability of larger cities to regulate lot sizes and setbacks. She called it “unprecedented legislation that would put Arizonans at the center of a housing reform experiment with unclear outcomes.”

A similar bill cleared the Senate last year but never made it out of the House.

And in this session, there will be efforts to repeal or alter a 2016 law that allows investors and others to buy up housing stock that otherwise might be used by families and convert them into vacation rentals.

Gubernatorial candidates attempt to smear each other’s career histories

Key Points:
  • Gubernatorial candidates are tossing around labels like “career politician” and “political outsider”
  • All four candidates have long careers in or around politics, despite labels
  • Incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs was a social worker before 2011

As 2026 grows ever closer, Arizona’s gubernatorial candidates are going on the offensive, attempting to pigeonhole their opponents — and themselves — with labels about their political experience.

Phrases like “career politician,” “Washington politician” and “political outsider” have been hurled by the campaigns of the four candidates vying for the Ninth Floor: Gov. Katie Hobbs, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson. But each candidate’s professional career is a little bit more complex than the labels their opponents are trying to attach to them. 

All four gubernatorial hopefuls have had long careers in or around politics, each treading their own path to their current positions. 

“Career politician” Gov. Katie Hobbs

Despite attempts to brand the governor as a career politician, Hobbs was a social worker before entering politics in 2011. She is the first and only social worker elected governor in the United States. 

After being elected to the state House of Representatives, Hobbs continued in the social work field for much of her time in the Legislature.

According to financial disclosure statements, Hobbs worked at the domestic violence shelter Sojourner Center in various roles between 2011 and 2015. During the same time period, Hobbs was serving in the House and then the Senate. 

The governor also pursued several other jobs while in the Legislature, many of which she held concurrently with other positions. She worked as an adjunct professor, held contract positions with local nonprofits, ran a political training program and managed volunteers for Phoenix Pride.

At times, Hobbs held as many as four positions in one year, while also driving for Uber to earn extra money for Christmas presents for her family. 

“She ran for office after working in domestic violence advocacy and seeing politicians look the other way as Arizona families struggled,” Michael Beyer, Hobbs’ campaign spokesman, said in a statement. “Her opponents are exactly the kind of out-of-touch politicians she ran to challenge: career politicians and a billionaire corporate lobbyist who put partisan politics ahead of Arizonans.”

Financial disclosure statements show that Hobbs did not begin to focus on politics as a full-time job until she was elected secretary of state in 2018.

“Washington politician” and “career politician” U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs

Hobbs has attempted to portray Biggs as out of touch with the needs of average Arizonans after spending nearly a decade in Congress, and Taylor Robson, who is likely to be Biggs’ most significant Republican contender, has continually criticized him as a career politician who got his start in Arizona politics more than two decades ago.

Biggs first ran for office in 2002, successfully snagging a seat in the state House of Representatives. After serving the maximum eight years in the House, Biggs moved to the Senate, where he became president in 2013. 

Biggs’ tenure as Senate president overlapped with Hobbs’ stint as Senate minority leader and the two have spoken about their cordial working relationship. 

After 14 years in the Legislature, Biggs ran for his current seat in the 5th Congressional District in 2016. He hasn’t faced a competitive primary or general election challenge since his first run for the seat. 

Biggs is an attorney by trade, and he worked as a prosecutor for the city of Phoenix before opening his own practice in Mesa. He did not practice law or hold any other job during much of his time in the Legislature, according to financial disclosure documents. 

The congressman became a multimillionaire in 1993 after winning $10 million from the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes. Biggs also reported income from a publishing company he owned, which published two books he wrote in 2011 and 2015. 

In a 2013 interview with the Western Growers & Shipper Magazine, Biggs said he did not have a road map for his political future.

“If I have a road map it is very short term,” Biggs said. “I never thought of holding public office as a career.”

In a statement, Biggs’ campaign consultant Drew Sexton emphasized the congressman’s involvement in his local community.

“Congressman Biggs has always valued serving his community, whether it be in a leadership role in his church or in public office,” Sexton said. “East Valley residents know the congressman well and trust him to stand for their conservative values, which is why voters keep electing him and why Arizona will choose him to be their next governor.”

“Washington insider” U.S. Rep. David Schweikert

Hobbs and Taylor Robson also accuse Schweikert of being a career politician too deeply entrenched in the politics of Washington, D.C. to focus on Arizona. However, like Hobbs and Biggs, Schweikert got his start in local politics.

Schweikert was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1990 and served for four years before being appointed chair of the State Board of Equalization. He served in that role for eight years.

In 2004, Schweikert was appointed chief deputy treasurer of Maricopa County and later that year elected treasurer. He resigned from that position in 2007 to run unsuccessfully for Congress. Schweikert was elected to his current seat in the 1st Congressional District in 2010. 

Professionally, Schweikert owned a real estate investment company called Sheridan Equities. He was a managing member of the company until 2023, according to federal financial disclosure reports. 

Schweikert’s campaign is branding him as a workhorse and the only Republican in the race who “isn’t a sellout,” according to a radio ad. 

“In Congress, I helped write President Trump’s tax cuts, fought for the toughest border security laws out there, and voted for the largest spending reduction in American history,” Schweikert’s website reads. 

“Political outsider” Karrin Taylor Robson

The biggest misconception about Taylor Robson’s career history comes not from her opponents but from her supporters. Building A Better Arizona, a political action committee formed to bolster Taylor Robson’s campaign, ran an ad in early December claiming the businesswoman is a “political outsider.”

However, most Arizona politicos know that Taylor Robson has a long history of involvement in state politics, despite never having held elected office. She is the daughter of former Senate President Carl Kunasek and the sister of former Maricopa County Supervisor Andy Kunasek, both of whom spent decades in office. 

Taylor Robson is also an attorney by trade, specializing in land-use, zoning and real estate. She has been a registered lobbyist in the state since 1999, with a few gaps in the early 2000s and during her first run for governor. 

Taylor Robson was executive vice president and a lobbyist at real estate development company DMB Associates, a principal at local law firm Biskind, Hunt & Taylor and eventually founded her own land-use consulting firm, Arizona Strategies.

She was appointed to the Arizona Board of Regents by former Gov. Doug Ducey in 2017, and served until 2021. Taylor Robson also leads Arizona PAC, a group that poured significant funds into strengthening Republican majorities in the Legislature in 2024. 

Most recently, Taylor Robson was a lobbyist for Resolution Copper, before terminating her lobbyist registration in March. Her campaign spokesman did not respond to requests for comment, but Building a Better Arizona PAC doubled down on her “political outsider” status in a post on X.

“Karrin Taylor Robson is the ONLY candidate who isn’t a career politician,” the PAC wrote. “It’s obvious career politicians cannot get the job done.” 

Crowded contest shaping up in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Key Points: 
  • Congressman chooses to run for governor in 2026, leaving behind vacancy
  • 21 candidates express interest in running to fill vacant spot in CD1
  • CD1 has a republican voter edge

With less than a year until the 2026 election, the field of candidates hoping to replace U.S. Rep. David Schweikert in Congress is starting to take shape. 

Following Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Gina Swoboda’s October announcement to run in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, Republican and Scottsdale resident John Trobough filed paperwork with the Secretary of State’s Office to run in the district. 

Schwiekert is running for the Republican nomination for governor in 2026 and entering a crowded field with fellow GOP gubernatorial candidates Andy Biggs and Karrin Taylor Robson. Schweikert’s decision to run for governor leaves his district without an incumbent for the first time in more than a decade. 

As of Nov. 20, nine Republicans and 12 Democrats have filed statements of interest to run for Schweikert’s seat in a district that could help decide which party controls the U.S. House in the midterm elections. 

Trobough, the former president and CEO of Boeing subsidiary and cybersecurity analytics company Narus, is campaigning as a Silicon Valley Republican who would help advance President Donald Trump’s America First agenda and outcompete China.

In 2016, Trobough was selected as a fellow in the Presidential Innovation Fellows program, which awards top technologists and innovators to improve government services. 

A memo sent from Trobough to the White House and the Arizona Capitol Times also notes Trobough is prepared to contribute at least $1 million of his own funds to his campaign. Consultants close to Trobough also expect him to formally announce his candidacy by Dec. 1. One group Trobough is seeking support from is Turning Point USA, the conservative advocacy organization that was led by the late Charlie Kirk.

Trump has endorsed Swoboda, but some Arizona Republicans have turned against her. The founder of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, Sen. Jake Hoffman, R-Queen Creek, has accused Swoboda on social media of pushing Schwiekert to run for governor in an attempt to thwart Biggs’s campaign and has called her a Democrat. 

Trobough declined to comment to the Arizona Capitol Times about his filing of a statement of interest, and Swoboda did not respond to a request for comment from the Arizona Capitol Times.

Other Republicans who have filed statements of interest include: Brandon Sproles, Joe Russell, Kaitlin Purrington, Brandon Sowers, Paul Reevs, Jason Duey and Dusko Jovicic.

CD1 covers northeast Maricopa County, encompassing northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission considers the district highly competitive and gives Republicans a slight edge with a 2.6% vote spread advantage. 

Schweikert defeated Democrat and former state Rep. Amish Shah in the 2024 general election by just under 4%, or about 16,500 votes. 

Shah is running again in the Democratic primary to try for Schweikert’s seat, along with his 2024 Democratic primary opponent Marlene Galán-Woods. 

Other Democrats who have filed statements of interest include: Brandon Donnelly, Brian Del Vecchio, Tammi Medlin, Andres Barraza, Angie Montoya, Mark Robert Gordon, Rick McCartney, Jonathan Treble, David Redkey, Daniel Lucio and Victor Weintraub. 

Treble, the founder of smart amenities company WithMe, has amassed the most cash among Democrats by the close of the third quarter campaign finance reporting period in October, becoming the first Democrat to cross the $1 million threshold in total cash raised for the 2026 election cycle. His total fundraising is more than Shah and Galán-Woods raised combined through the third quarter, with more than $1.7 million raised and $1.3 million in total cash on hand. 

The more than 207,000 registered Republicans in CD1 outpace Democrats by more than 60,000, according to the Secretary of State’s Office October voter registration report. There are another 181,000 “other” voters in the district.

Hobbs hosts first reelection rally for ‘toughest race in the country’

Key Points:
  • Gov. Katie Hobbs held an “Arizona First” rally in Tucson, the first major event of her reelection campaign
  • Hobbs accused her three Republican opponents of kowtowing to President Donald Trump and being out of touch with Arizona issues
  • The governor acknowledged that her race will be an uphill battle, but said she is prepared to fight

Gov. Katie Hobbs kicked off a weekend of campaigning by criticizing her Republican opponents for focusing more on Washington, D.C., than the Grand Canyon state at her “Arizona First” rally in Tucson. 

The Nov. 1 rally was the first major event of her reelection campaign. Hobbs was joined by former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, U.S. Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva and Tohono O’odham Nation Chairman Verlon Jose at the El Rio Neighborhood Center. Hobbs acknowledged to the crowd of over 200 attendees that her race would be an uphill battle, partially due to President Donald Trump and his influence over her three Republican opponents.

“We know that this race will be one of the toughest in the country,” Hobbs said during the rally. “Right after the 2024 election, Donald Trump came to Arizona, and he made it clear that winning this governor’s race is a top priority for him. He wants someone who will do whatever he says and never push back. And all three of my opponents fit this bill.” 

Hobbs will face the winner of the three-way Republican primary featuring U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Rep. David Schweikert. Biggs and Robson share an endorsement from the president, while Schweikert has been a Trump supporter but is unlikely to get a nod from him in the race. 

The governor officially launched her reelection campaign on Oct. 9 with endorsements from Arizona’s top Democratic officials, including U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego and U.S. Reps. Yassamin Ansari and Greg Stanton. She will head into 2026 unopposed on the Democratic side and with a warchest of more than $5 million. 

Hobbs’ campaign is leaning into the governor’s focus on state-level issues, while two of her opponents, Biggs and Schweikert, have spent over a decade serving Arizona at the federal level and the third, Robson, has no experience in elected office. During her remarks Saturday, Hobbs highlighted the difference between her role in the state budget process and the federal budget process as Congress is 31 days into a government shutdown and no closer to a deal to end it.

“After negotiations with both parties, I signed a balanced, bipartisan budget that puts families first,” Hobbs said. “At the same time, politicians ran through a reckless, partisan budget and all of my opponents cheered it on.” 

Hobbs also touted her wins on groundwater legislation, funding for the Division of Developmental Disabilities, border security efforts and job creation in the technology sector. And while Republicans use Hobbs’ penchant for vetoing legislation — she’s broken the state’s veto record twice in just three years in office — as an attack, Grijalva sees it as an asset for Democrats.

“The veto, the one that has protected Arizona nearly 400 times,” Grijalva said. “That is courage, and that’s the kind of steady hand Arizona needs, especially now, because let’s be honest, the other side isn’t hiding their agenda.”

Grijalva’s delayed swearing in was also a hot topic at the rally, with attendees chanting “swear her in” after the representative-elect spoke. Grijalva is still waiting for House Speaker Mike Johnson to allow her to take the oath of office and recently broke the modern record for longest wait to be sworn in, after being elected to her seat on Sept. 23. 

U.S. Sen Mark Kelly was also slated to attend the rally, but couldn’t make it because “he’s maybe trying to restart the government,” Hobbs told attendees. Other Southern Arizona elected officials like Reps. Betty Villegas, Chris Mathis, Consuleo Hernandez and Alma Hernandez were also in attendance. 

The Tucson rally jumpstarted a weekend of campaigning around the state, with Hobbs slated to attend multiple events in Bisbee and Yuma and host another rally in Phoenix on Sunday. Hobbs said she will continue to remind voters that the campaign “will not be easy,” but that she is ready for the challenge.

“There will be people who underestimate us, and I know what that feels like because in every campaign I’ve run, I’ve been underestimated,” Hobbs said. “But I’ve also never lost.” 

Gubernatorial candidates rake in millions in donations ahead of 2026

Key Points:
  • Three candidates for governor in 2026 have raked in over a million in campaign donations in 2025
  • Gov. Katie Hobbs continues to outraise her GOP opponents
  • U.S. Rep. David Schweiker does not have any donations to report yet

Next year’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a costly affair as candidates on both sides of the aisle continue to raise millions of dollars in the lead up to the 2026 elections. 

Gov. Katie Hobbs announced on Oct. 15 that her campaign is already breaking fundraising records, bringing in a total of $12 million since she was elected in 2022. Hobbs raised more than $4 million in 2025 alone, the biggest haul of any Arizona gubernatorial candidate in a nonelection year.

“Arizonans are rallying behind Katie Hobbs because they know she’s focused on delivering results – lowering costs, securing the border, and solving problems,” said Nicole DeMont, Hobbs’ campaign manager, in a statement. “While her opponents are locked in a contest for desperate approval from Washington, Katie Hobbs is bringing Republicans, Democrats, and Independents together to move Arizona forward.”

In the most recent campaign finance filing period, which covers July through September, Hobbs raised nearly $1.5 million. That brings her warchest up to $5.4 million in cash on hand. 

Hobbs’ political action committee, Copper State Values, has also raised over $2.7 million to support the governor’s reelection campaign. 

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs is slowly but steadily seeing an increase in fundraising over the course of 2025, bringing in over $560,000 in the third quarter. That leaves him with around $630,000 in cash on hand and around $1.2 million raised this cycle. 

Biggs’ campaign noted that it received contributions from 4,000 new donors in quarter three alone, which could be attributed to the outpouring of support from conservatives after the shooting death of Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk on Sept. 10. Kirk endorsed Biggs’ campaign for governor in May and campaign finance reports show an uptick in donations following Kirk’s death.

“As I continue to travel across Arizona and share my vision of freedom for our state, more and more voters are coming on board to show their support,” Biggs said in a statement. “It’s clear we deserve better than the weak leadership and petty vetoes Katie Hobbs has built her office around, but it will take someone with the relationships and experience at the State Capitol and beyond to lead our state from Day One.”

Turning Point’s political action committee has also been providing support to Biggs’ campaign, spending nearly $500,000 on media for Biggs in 2025 so far. 

Businesswoman and former lobbyist Karrin Taylor Robson, known for self-funding her campaigns, has around $970,000 in cash on hand at the end of quarter three and has brought in a total of $4 million in 2025. However, only $1.9 million of her funds have come from donors, while the rest comes from loans Robson has made to her campaign. 

Robson is also a big spender, having already dropped $3 million in 2025 alone. $2 million of that was spent on media buys promoting her own endorsement from President Trump, which she shares with Biggs. 

“I am grateful for every Arizonan who has invested in our mission to Make Arizona Strong Again,” Robson said in a statement. “With President Trump’s endorsement and the backing of thousands of conservatives, we will build an unstoppable ground game, win the primary, defeat Katie Hobbs, and get our state back on track.”

Building a Better Arizona, the PAC supporting Robson, also spent around $72,000 in independent expenditures on behalf of her campaign in the third quarter, according to campaign finance reports. Most of that money went toward consulting costs and voter outreach efforts. 

U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, the newest entrant in the race, does not have any donations to report given his late start to the campaign. But, Schweikert does have around $1.1 million in cash on hand from his congressional campaign that could be rolled over to his gubernatorial committee. 

As the candidates gear up to hit the ground running in early 2026, Hobbs continues to lead the pack in cash on hand. While her Republican opponents will use the money they have to battle it out in the Aug. 4 primary, the governor will be able to rest on her warchest for most of 2026. 

Schweikert lays out his plan to fix the AZ GOP in latest interview

Key Points: 
  • Schweikert sees path to victory running as a true conservative
  • Recent polling shows Schweikert training Biggs and Robson
  • Schweikert’s decision based in part on frustration with Washington 

On Sept. 30, U.S. Rep. David Schweikert said he wants to be Arizona’s next governor, shaking up what was already expected to be a contentious race among Republicans who want to try to unseat incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs.

Schweikert, who has served as a state legislator and Maricopa County treasurer before being elected to Congress in 2010, has become a significant factor in what until now has been a head-to-head contest between fellow GOP Congressman Andy Biggs and business owner Karrin Taylor Robson.

It also makes him the only Republican who does not have the endorsement of President Trump in the party.

Schweikert, however, told Capitol Media Services that he sees a path to victory despite the strength of the Make America Great movement, particularly given his record of being elected multiple times in a congressional district considered one of the most politically competitive in the state.

“I think if you run as an actual conservative instead of your perceived anger, I think that works,” he said. “And I actually have polling that says that works.”

And that, Schweikert said, comes down to messaging.

“I’m with the free market,” he said.

“I believe prosperity is moral,” Schweikert continued. “Doing better in life is our mission.”

But the other half of his decision to leave Congress is based on his frustration with how things operate in Washington.

“It’s more than frustration,” he said. “I am at a point where I am livid all the time and I come home angry.”

And much of that is aimed at members of his own party who have controlled the House for all but four years since he was elected.

“I actually introduced the bills that have ‘Medicare’ in the title,” Schweikert cited as an example.

“You’re not allowed to do that,” he said. “And I can’t get a single other member to sponsor.”

There’s something else.

Schweikert, at 63, is the parent of two adopted children, ages 9 and 3.

“When you’re gone 60% of the time, and your wife, their mother, is home alone with the kids, there’s some unhappiness,” he said.

But there’s another side to his decision. Schweikert said he believes he can fix the GOP in Arizona which he said has been broken for four election cycles.

He noted that Democrats won statewide races in 2022 for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, as well as for the U.S. Senate despite the fact the GOP has a voter registration edge in Arizona. The GOP also lost the race for Senate last year.

And it goes back even farther, he said, to the inability of Republicans to deliver the state to Donald Trump in 2020 or hang on to a Senate seat in 2018.

Schweikert contends that if he heads the GOP ticket in 2026, he will draw out more Republicans than either Biggs or Robson.

Robson, in a prepared statement, said she welcomes Schweikert into the race, saying it will give voters a clear choice between “a Trump-endorsed conservative outsider who built her success in the private sector, or yet another career politician.”

Biggs responded with a survey conducted earlier this month — before Schweikert made his announcement — that shows he has the support of 48% of likely Republican voters in a three-way race, with Robson at 26% and Schweikert at 11%.

Schweikert acknowledged the numbers. However, he said he doesn’t see that as significant at this point, stating that he has a message he believes will resonate with voters.

“I would argue there’s a difference between populism and conservatism,” Schweikert said.

And he said his resume is more extensive than Biggs, with more time served in Congress than anyone currently in the Arizona delegation.

“If you’re an Arizonan and you need something to move in Congress, I’m the one you bring it to,” Schweikert said.

Still, Schweikert has some baggage, including being found guilty of various campaign finance violations going back to 2010. That includes reporting a $100,000 loan that didn’t exist, failing to disclose another loan, and money spent by his chief of staff that was reimbursed by the campaign.

The House Ethics Committee accused him of providing misleading statements and being slow to produce documents, allowing the statute of limitations to expire. In 2020, the panel fined him $50,000.

Two years later, the Federal Election Commission, after conducting its own probe, entered into a deal with Schweikert to pay a $125,000 fine.

Schweikert said all that “doesn’t move numbers,” as shown by his ability to get reelected since all that broke despite the issue being used by his Democratic foes.

“I think it’s partially because we were remarkably open about it,” he said, citing his many town hall meetings.

Schweikert also may find himself out of sync with Arizonans on another issue: abortion.

By a 3-2 margin, voters in Arizona approved inserting a provision in the Arizona Constitution guaranteeing a “fundamental right to obtain an abortion.”

“I may be out of step,” Schweikert said. “But I am a classic pro-lifer.”

He said he was born in a home for unwed mothers — as were his brother and sister. And then there are the two adopted children.

“I campaigned against that initiative because I think it was also presented in a dishonest fashion,” Schweikert said.

His position, however, should not hurt in the Republican primary as both Biggs and Robson also have said they oppose abortion. Where it will matter for whoever emerges from the GOP primary is in the general election against incumbent Hobbs who supported Proposition 139.

Another factor that could influence the election is money.

Schweikert declined to say how much he would need to raise to survive the primary.

“We’ve built budgets,” he said. But Schweikert noted how much he will need to raise will depend on how much outside groups will spend on his behalf.

“You can’t coordinate, you can’t talk to,” he noted of these independent expenditures. “But you can actually see what their purchases are,” allowing him to tailor his own spending.

Robson, sitting on a personal fortune, already has put more than $2.2 million of her own cash into the 2026 race — and that’s after spending $17 million in personal wealth in 2022 only to lose the GOP primary to Kari Lake.

Biggs, who got a later start in the 2026 gubernatorial race, reported $437,000 in the bank as of July, the latest campaign finance report. But he is getting a financial boost with nearly $459,000 spent on his behalf by Turning Point Action.

Schweikert said he isn’t worried, saying Democrats have outspent him in their efforts to oust him from Congress.

The really big money could be in the general election: Hobbs, who has been fundraising for years and continues to do so, including at out-of-state events, reports having nearly $4.7 million in cash on hand as of July.

Schweikert’s decision not to seek reelection to the House in Congressional District 1 creates something that hasn’t occurred since he first got the seat in 2010. And that could help Democrats who have been trying to get elected there in a district that runs from north central Phoenix through Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills into the Tonto National Forest, a district that the Cook Political Report has shown to just barely edge Republican.

“An open seat is always an opportunity,” he said.

And who does he think should replace him?

“Some of the people I think have the ability, the intellect to do it well don’t seem interested in running,” Schweikert said. Nor, given his own experience, can he blame them.

“Congress is a battle zone,” he said. “And you’ve got to be mentally and emotionally fairly tough to deal with the absurdity that has become Congress.”

Schweikert announces bid for Arizona governor, faces criticism from both sides

Key Points:
  • US Rep. David Schweikert joins Republican primary for governor
  • Schweikert concerned about Republican candidates’ ability to beat Gov. Katie Hobbs
  • Schweikert’s departure opens up a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix

U.S. Rep. David Schweikert is officially jumping into the Republican primary for governor, opening up a barrage of political attacks from both sides of the aisle and a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix.

After months of speculation, Schweikert confirmed his intent to run in an interview with the Arizona Republic on Sept. 30, citing his concern that the two current Republican candidates, fellow U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, cannot defeat incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in a general election. The announcement sparked swift reactions from both Republican candidates and supporters of Hobbs.

“The race for second place is on between two career politicians,” a press release from Robson’s campaign said. 

Biggs’ campaign highlighted a new poll from conservative firm Pulse Decision Science, which put him far ahead of both Robson and Schweikert, with Schweikert trailing 23% to Biggs’ 61% among likely Republican primary voters. 

“No matter what the field looks like, the polls have been clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are supporting our campaign,” Biggs said in a post on X. “We’ll keep working and building on our lead over the coming months.”

Both Robson and Biggs touted their shared endorsement from President Donald Trump, something Schweikert is unlikely to snag. Trump previously endorsed two candidates in 2024’s Republican primary for Congressional District 8, but a three-way endorsement would be unprecedented.

Biggs also has the support of conservative juggernaut Turning Point USA, and its late-founder Charlie Kirk endorsed his campaign earlier this year. Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs and a Republican turned independent, said he doesn’t see a path to victory for Schweikert in the primary. 

“I think most MAGA Republicans and Trump supporters in the Republican primary are going to Congressman Biggs,” Coughlin said. “Given the geography of (Schweikert’s) district, I could see how he could persuade maybe some of Robson’s supporters to move his way … but I still think Karrin, given her last statewide race and better name I.D., is a pretty formidable candidate herself.” 

Democrats joined in on the attacks against Schweikert Tuesday, with Copper State Victory, the coordinated campaign to re-elect Arizona’s top three Democrats, calling out the Congressman’s recent votes in favor of Trump administration policies like the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

“The Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary is already a messy, expensive race that is running further and further to the extreme right at the expense of Arizona families,” a press release from Copper State Victory said. “With Congressman David Schweikert’s decision to step into the ring, this primary will now escalate exponentially into an all-out brawl.”

Schweikert’s decision to enter the gubernatorial race opens up his seat in Congressional District 1. He and U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar are Arizona’s two longest-serving current congressional members, and Schweikert’s departure from Congress would give a new Republican candidate the opportunity to try to secure what has become a key battleground seat for the GOP in recent elections. 

In 2024, Schweikert defeated Democrat Amish Shah by just under 4% of votes in the district, expanding on a narrow 2022 victory where he beat Jevin Hodge by a margin of less than 1%. 

Shah is running again for Congress in the district, and 11 other Democrats have filed paperwork with the Secretary of State’s Office to express interest in running as well. 

“David Schweikert will no longer be my opponent. Earlier this year, he joined nearly every House Republican in Congress to take healthcare away from millions of Americans and explode the national debt, all to give tax cuts to the ultra-rich. Meanwhile, the American people witness daily chaos and absurdity in the news every morning from government shutdowns to canceling comedians to economy-crushing tariffs. Any Republican from our district who replaces Schweikert in this race will be afraid to stand up to the Trump Administration to put America on the right track,” Shah said in a statement. 

Registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats by more than 62,000, according to a July voter registration report from the Secretary of State’s office. There are another 179,000 voters registered as “other” in the district.

“Republicans will field a strong candidate to defeat whichever liberal emerges from the Democrats’ 7-way primary. Voters in this district are shifting rightward and reject Democrats’ tax-raising, open borders agenda,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesperson Ben Petersen.

One prominent valley Republican has already rejected rumors that he might run for the CD1 seat hours after Schweikert announced his decision to run. 

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Thomas Galvin wrote in a post on X that he’s flattered his name has been tossed around as Schweikert’s successor but he would rather continue serving on the board with the “best job in Arizona government.”

While rumors continue to swirl around potential Republican candidates in CD1, no official announcements have been made. 

Will Robson be the new face of Arizona conservatism?

Peter Clark

In a strange turn of events, a recent Noble Predictive Insights poll has found that Republican gubernatorial contender Karrin Taylor-Robson is “10 points ahead of competitor” Andy Biggs. Robson was once estranged from the MAGA wing of the GOP and is now the frontrunner in the primary race.

Some commentators believe Robson’s early lead is not sustainable on the long campaign trail to the 2026 primary. Due to her lack of grassroots support, being viewed as a political insider, and flip-flopping on policy, she potentially weakens her dominance.

What would it mean for the AZ GOP if Robson wins the nomination? Both candidates have the endorsement of President Trump, but represent different factions of the GOP.

Robson presents Arizona with a MAGA-lite flavor of conservatism, favoring solution-focused policies and practicality.

Meanwhile, Biggs is a MAGA firebrand. Uncompromising and resolute when it comes to upholding conservative principles.

The current status of the GOP primary could be a shift in Arizona politics. While MAGA is still a predominant strain of conservatism, it’s losing steam. From March 2025 to June 2025, Republicans nationally identifying as MAGA declined to 49%.

Robson’s current lead could be the ripple effect of national trends bleeding into Arizona’s political landscape. Voters currently preferring Robson could be a sign of a shift toward moderate politics, supporting AZ First policies, and a demand for solutions over fiery rhetoric.

Arizona is far from a secure right-wing stronghold. The diaspora of transplants from deep-blue states has loosened the GOP’s grip on AZ. Outside of registered Republicans, the second largest voter demographic in the state is independents, making up 34.13% of the electorate. 

Republicans really need to reach persuadable moderates if they want to win elections – 59% of Arizona voters believe that “both political parties are too extreme.”

As we saw in the 2022 midterms, extremism is a vice when it comes to winning elections. Independent voters were unswayed by the quirks of far-right MAGA candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters. Lake even failed to engage moderates in her 2024 Senate bid.

Robson side-steps the “Kari Lake Problem” by marketing herself as MAGA-friendly, but avoiding inflammatory rhetoric that is off-putting to moderates. Her balanced approach has so far paid off. She even leads with “Trump-first Republicans.” Showing that even some of Trump’s diehard supporters recognize the GOP needs to change course to win Arizona.

A whopping 60% of AZ voters don’t believe politicians focus on the most critical issues.

Robson, positioning herself as being business-oriented while focusing on matters of local concern, such as the economy and public safety, is a laudable attempt to avoid the trappings of the national political scene. Establishing a political brand that is Arizona-First.

Biggs is America-First, not Arizona-First. He’s as Trumpian as you can get. Instead of focusing on issues of concern to the state, he may import policies that achieve the grand strategy of the national MAGA coalition. 

The rising nationalization of state and local politics is evident with national advocacy groups weighing in on low-profile local elections.

As governor, you must put the state before your party; otherwise, you will be doing a disservice to Arizonans. 

Conservatives have succeeded in implementing tax cuts, border enforcement, and rolling back DEI. But they’ve lost ground due to infighting and their hostility toward bipartisanship.

Arizonans are not impressed by the theatrics of bomb-throwing ideologues – they prefer results. Only 29% of Arizona voters prefer politicians who refuse to reach across the aisle on principle.

On her campaign website, Robson has highlighted the public’s frustration with “bipartisan gridlock,” signaling that she will be willing to approach the issues facing the state pragmatically. 

I can only hope that Robson is sincere in her efforts to put Arizona first. However, with the primary 11 months away, we can only hope she doesn’t succumb to the pressure from external interest groups. However, her milder brand of conservative politics appears to be already resonating with voters. If she stays on course, she could be a new force in Arizona politics.

Peter Clark is an Arizona-based writer.

A year out from the GOP gubernatorial primary, Robson and Biggs race to the right

Key Points:
  • Two clear gubernatorial frontrunners lead the way in Arizona ahead of the 2026 elections
  • Both were endorsed by President Donald Trump
  • Each has one year to convince voters that they can beat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs

With 365 days until Arizona’s 2026 primary elections, the Republican gubernatorial primary field has two clear candidates vying to prove their conservative chops. 

After losing the governor’s office to a Democrat for the first time since 2006 with the election of Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2022, Arizona Republicans are hoping to wrest the state back into their control next year. Two frontrunners to replace Hobbs emerged early in 2025: businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Arizona.

A dual endorsement from President Donald Trump, shifting policy stances and the influence of conservative group Turning Point USA stand to complicate the race for both candidates. But their campaigns are eager to prevent 2026 from being a repeat of 2022.

While a year feels far away for many, Arizona’s political community knows it will pass in the blink of an eye for those who are unprepared.

“You want to start kicking for the finish line of the Republican primary in January,” said Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs. 

The Robson campaign

In 2022, Robson painted herself as a moderate alternative to Trump-endorsed, MAGA darling Kari Lake. Despite efforts to distance herself from President Trump in the aftermath of her former primary loss, Robson began to make a swing back toward the right while Trump campaigned for his second term.

That earned her the first endorsement from the president in the race in December 2024, a shock to many considering that Robson hadn’t even formally announced a run for governor. She accepted the endorsement and ran with it when she launched her bid earlier this year.

“Since she launched in mid-February, Karrin has done over 150 events across Arizona, had the largest and earliest media buy in AZ gubernatorial campaign history, and has raised over $1.6 million, lapping the GOP field,” campaign spokesman Jeff Glassburner said in a statement. 

Despite all of that, some consultants and party insiders still see Robson as a candidate who can win the general election but not the primary. Fellow Republicans have already criticized her for her background as a lobbyist, her support of a state proposition that gave in-state tuition to undocumented students graduating from Arizona high schools, and her work on behalf of candidates who challenged Trump in 2024. 

Tyler Montague, a Republican consultant, said there are areas of tension within GOP circles that Robson could exploit. One is the Trump administration’s handling of Department of Justice files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

“Robson, or the external groups supporting Robson, are likely to use this to break up some of the big support,” Montague said. “A lot of the Republican base wants to release these files.”

Whether or not Robson still has the support of the moderate wing of the Republican Party has, however, come into question. Democrats noted last week that Robson has been supportive of cuts to Medicaid while former Gov. Jan Brewer, who co-chaired Robson’s first campaign, has advocated against them.

Coughlin, who served as Brewer’s political consultant when she was in office, said he hadn’t heard firsthand whether the former governor was considering dropping Robson, but said it seemed unlikely.

“I very rarely see Jan back away from something that she’d previously done,” Coughlin said.

Robson did lose the backing of several Trump aides who were advising her campaign earlier this year, including the president’s former campaign manager Chris LaCivita. Now, her campaign is being led by Parker Carey, with her 2022 campaign manager Glassburner returning as an adviser. 

However, the Robson campaign has a significant fundraising advantage. She outraised Biggs in the first two quarters of 2025 by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and she can self-fund her campaign, already spending $2.2 million of her own money this year. 

Barrett Marson, a Republican public relations consultant, said Robson’s ability to contribute to her campaign should not be overlooked.

“Both candidates have the Trump endorsement, but only one candidate has money to trumpet that endorsement,” Marson said. 

The Biggs campaign

Biggs, the longtime congressman from a deep red district, entered the race in March and quickly snagged his own nod from Trump. The endorsement was nearly a given, due to his unwavering support of the president through his first term, his 2020 loss and his 2024 comeback. 

“Congressman Andy Biggs enters August as the clear favorite in the GOP Primary Election and stands well-positioned as the strongest candidate to defeat Katie Hobbs in November 2026,” said spokesman Drew Sexton in a statement. “He’s the only candidate to be endorsed by President Donald J. Trump and Charlie Kirk, the only candidate with an impeccable conservative voting record, and the only candidate with the governing experience at the state and federal level to provide strong leadership for Arizona from Day One.” 

However, neither Trump’s nor Kirk’s endorsement seemed to have boosted Biggs’ campaign fundraising. In the first two quarters of 2025, his campaign has only raised around $660,000. 

Many have attributed the low numbers to Biggs’ inexperience running in competitive, statewide races. Prior to running in Arizona’s Congressional District 5, a Republican stronghold, Biggs represented the same area in the state Legislature. 

What he lacks in fundraising has been made up in independent expenditures, however. Turning Point’s political action committee spent nearly $500,000 on Biggs’ behalf in the second quarter of 2025, which included footing the bill for an over $300,000 TV ad buy. 

Biggs is also getting support from former Trump staffers. His team includes Pat Aquilina as campaign manager and Sexton as senior adviser, both of whom served as Arizona state director for the Trump campaigns in 2024 and 2020, respectively. 

But Republicans who are not fans of Biggs are already pulling skeletons out of his closet, including past votes from the Legislature, his opposition to bipartisan bills in Congress and his support for election conspiracy theories. 

“One (candidate) has a record and one somewhat of a blank slate,” Marson said. “As we all know, someone who has a blank slate can create their own narrative. Biggs has a record, and some of that is good and some of that isn’t.” 

Montague pointed out Biggs’ “no” votes on issues like releasing the Epstein files, the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act and several anti-human trafficking bills. He said that those votes, combined with his hardline conservative stances, will make it hard for Biggs to court moderate Republican voters. 

Avoiding the “Kari Lake problem”

With both candidates looking to avoid a repeat of 2022’s losses for Republicans, their campaigns seem to recognize a need to shift away from Lake’s brash, attention-grabbing and unsuccessful gubernatorial bid. 

Republican consultants agree that neither Biggs nor Robson has the personalities to run a campaign like Lake’s. But there are other areas the two need to stay away from if they hope to unseat Hobbs in the general election and avoid the “Kari Lake problem,” as Montague calls it.

“Kari Lake never quit running in a primary,” Montague said. “She just kept going on with that strategy and she was so bombastic, so committed to election fraud conspiracies that multiple polls showed she alienated people who know better.” 

Coughlin said Lake’s campaign also alienated her from other elected officials, which proved to be an unsuccessful strategy.

“She was bigger than anybody else, at least that’s what she was playing to be,” Coughlin said. “She wasn’t part of a team, and that narrative led her to be isolated in a way that really damaged her ability to market herself during a general election.” 

Montague said he thinks both candidates are running too far to the right to be successful in a general election, especially if an association with the Trump administration becomes toxic in 2026.

“To win the primary, they’re both having to brand themselves in a way that hurts them in the general,” Montague said. 

But to many others, on both sides of the aisle, both the primary and the general are still anyone’s game. 

GOP candidates lagging behind Hobbs in campaign finance for governor bid

Key Points:
  • Gov. Katie Hobbs leads in fundraising for 2026 re-election
  • U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs trails behind both Hobbs and Karrin Taylor Robson
  • Consultants say Biggs needs to step up his fundraising efforts

While Gov. Katie Hobbs continues to pad her campaign coffers ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race, the Republican candidates hoping to challenge her aren’t keeping up despite presidential support. 

Hobbs’ fundraising lead over her potential opponents continues, with still more than a year until both the primary and general elections. Her campaign touted over $1.3 million in fundraising in the second quarter of 2025, bringing her total cash on hand to $4.7 million. 

The campaign reported that 93% of the donations were under $100, and half of the donations to the campaign in 2025 came from first-time donors.

“All across our state, Arizonans are supporting Gov. Hobbs because she is a leader who understands the challenges they face and is focused on delivering results,” said Nicole DeMont, Hobbs’ campaign manager. “While Washington politicians play partisan games and push reckless agendas, Gov. Hobbs is focused on lowering costs, securing the border, and bringing people together to solve real problems.”

Stacy Pearson, a Democratic consultant, said Hobbs’ fundraising haul shows the state may be headed for a pendulum swing in 2026.

“Raising $100,000 a week in a state that Kamala Harris lost six months ago is extraordinary,” Pearson said. “And out-fundraising her two Republican potential challengers combined really sets the stage for her to win reelection comfortably.” 

Hobbs will be able to mostly rest on her warchest in early 2026, but the two Republicans vying for the GOP nomination — businesswoman and lobbyist Karrin Taylor Robson and Congressman Andy Biggs — will need cash to fuel them through the August 2026 primary. Neither candidate’s fundraising came close to Hobbs’ in either quarter of 2025, and both are lagging behind in cash on hand, according to the latest campaign finance reports submitted to the Secretary of State’s Office on July 21. 

Robson’s campaign brought in over $570,000 in donations in quarter two, a decrease from her more than $800,000 haul in the first quarter of 2025. Robson also loaned $2.2 million of her own money to the campaign, roughly the same amount the campaign has spent on TV ads so far this cycle. 

Her campaign now has over $870,000 in cash on hand, but is likely to see more funds from Robson herself. She largely self-funded her first run for governor in 2022, a race that broke both campaign fundraising and spending records in Arizona. 

Biggs is trailing the two in fundraising this year, bringing in a little over $230,000 in quarter one and around $429,000 in quarter two. He is also spending less than Robson and is left with more than $430,000 in cash on hand. 

Despite receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump in April — one he shares with Robson, who the president also endorsed in December — Biggs has not been able to capitalize on fundraising. Many political consultants have noted that, since Biggs entered the race, his years of running in a safe Republican congressional district have not provided him with much experience in fundraising.

“Biggs was never a big fundraiser. He didn’t have to be, but now that he wants to do something else, he’s got to be,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican public relations consultant. “So he’s got to really step up. And it’s hard to do that, especially when there is a viable conservative alternative, and someone who can spend quite literally millions of dollars of her own money.”

In fact, Biggs’ campaign said quarter two was the largest fundraising quarter in his political career. The campaign also touted his modest spending, noting Robson has already spent $2.7 million in 2025. 

Pearson said the lack of fundraising momentum for Biggs following his endorsement from Trump could foreshadow the impact it will have in a 2026 general election. In the 2022 general election, nearly every Trump-endorsed candidate lost at the state level in Arizona. 

“Trump’s endorsement always had the potential to be a liability and I think we’ll know in the next (campaign finance) reporting cycle or two whether or not that’s really the case,” Pearson said. 

All three candidates are seeing money pouring in from other areas, Biggs and Robson from independent expenditures and Hobbs from Democrats’ newly launched coordinated campaign. Turning Point USA’s political action committee has spent nearly $500,000 on Biggs’ behalf since early May, while a PAC formed to support Robson has spent nearly $60,000 on her behalf this year.

Marson said Biggs can’t rely on TPUSA to compensate in fundraising, noting “their money isn’t endless.” He said the congressman will need to step it up before campaigning begins in earnest in early 2026.

“Generally speaking, getting signatures and raising money, that’s all you need to be doing,” Marson said. “And Biggs has fallen behind for sure, whether it’s compared to Hobbs or compared to Robson.”

Copper State Victory, the coordinated campaign launched by Arizona’s top Democratic elected officials, raised over $360,000 in quarter two. The campaign was created to reroute funding from the Arizona Democratic Party to the Navajo County Democratic Committee after disputes with the party’s chair, who was voted out on July 16.

Pearson said Hobbs’ fundraising shows the recent party spats either aren’t reaching or aren’t deterring potential voters.

“It shows how much we can get stuck in our own echo chamber, we being people like me, political nerds,” Pearson said. “The average voter has no idea who the party chair is in Arizona.” 

The candidates will file two more campaign finance reports for 2025, one in October and another in January 2026. 

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