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Tag: Legislative District 4

Lawmakers face re-election amid shifting political landscape

Key Points:
  • Democrats see 2026 as their best chance to gain majority in state Legislature
  • Republicans hold 17-13 Senate majority and 33-27 House majority
  • Democrats are targeting seven legislative districts in their re-election efforts

State lawmakers are running for re-election this year, and after a red wave in 2024 that expanded Republicans’ majorities in both legislative chambers, Democrats are confident they can gain ground in November. 

“This year truly is the best chance that Democrats have at taking the majority,” House Minority Leader and Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Co-Chair Oscar De Los Santos told reporters and constituents in a Zoom call on Jan. 5. “The conditions are there. The country is fed up with Donald Trump’s obsession with petty politics and nonsense and distractions.”

The Governor’s Office and several other federal and state executive offices will be up for grabs in November, as well as the entire state Legislature. Republicans currently hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate and a 33-27 majority in the House. 

De Los Santos said the state Democratic legislative campaign committee is targeting seven legislative districts.

Legislative District 2

The north Phoenix district is represented by two Republicans and one Democrat. Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix; and Reps. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix; and Stephanie Simacek, D-Phoenix, have all filed statements of interest with the Secretary of State’s Office to run for re-election. 

Bolick defeated former Democratic state Rep. Judy Schwiebert in the 2024 election by more than 3% of votes when Schwiebert tried to move seats from the House to the Senate. Simacek got the most votes in the district’s House race and Wilmeth just finished ahead of fellow Republican Ari Bradshaw by .10% of votes. 

Bradshaw has also filed a statement of interest to run again for the House in LD2, but Simacek is the only Democrat to have filed so far. Other candidates include Republicans Linda Brickman, Neil DeSanti, Danielle Skranak and Arizona Independent Party candidate Tom Simes. 

Two Democrats, Krista Andrews and Daniel Toporek, have filed statements of interest to run for the Senate in the district, and two other Republicans, Timothy Ferrara and Christian Hinz, have filed paperwork to run against Bolick. 

Republicans make up about 35% of registered voters in the district, according to the most recent report from the Secretary of State’s Office published in October. Another 26% of voters are registered Democrats and the rest are registered as independents or affiliated with other parties. 

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission has labeled LD2 as a highly competitive district, giving Republicans a 3.80% advantage. 

Legislative District 4

This Scottsdale and northeast Phoenix district flipped entirely to Republican control after the 2024 election when it was previously represented by two Democrats at the Legislature in the prior election cycle. 

Reps. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix; and Pamela Carter, R-Scottsdale, defeated Democrats Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham. Carter had the closest race and beat Butler by 1% of votes, while Sen. Carine Werner, R-Scottsdale, defeated former state Sen. Christine Marsh by almost 4% of votes. 

Aaron Lieberman, a former Democratic state representative who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, has filed a statement of interest to challenge Werner for the LD4 Senate seat. 

The district’s House race has six candidates who are interested in running, including Gress, Carter and Gresham. Republicans Sandra Christensen and Jeffrey Nelson have also filed statements of interest along with Democrat Tank Hanna. 

Republican voters make up about 39% of registered voters in the district, and Democrats account for 26%, but a sizable independent voter base could determine how the district is represented after 2026. 

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission also considers LD4 as highly competitive, with Republicans holding a 3.42% advantage.

Legislative District 9

The west Mesa district of LD9 was the only competitive district in 2024 where Democrats took all three legislative seats. 

Reps. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa; and Seth Blattman, D-Mesa, both narrowly defeated their Republican opponents, Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza, in 2024, with Austin emerging as the top candidate with 26% of the vote. 

Blattman announced in December that he won’t seek re-election to instead pursue a new professional opportunity with greater “long-term stability” than his House seat and endorsed Democrat Jacob Martinez to replace him.

“Serving the people of LD 9 has been the honor of my life,” Blattman said in a statement. “Together we launched Arizona’s first Micro-Business Loan Program, putting many mom-and-pop shops on a more solid footing, and supported our public schools. I’m proud of what we accomplished and confident that Arizona’s best days are ahead.”

Austin has also filed a statement of interest to run again for her seat, and Republican Bradley Bettencourt is the only Republican seeking a House seat in LD9 so far. 

Former Democratic state Sen. Eva Burch beat Republican Robert Scantlebury by more than 3% in 2024, but Burch resigned during the 2025 legislative session. Her appointed replacement, Sen. Kiana Sears, has filed a statement of interest to run against Republican Bridget Fitzgibbons for the Senate. 

While LD9 was Democrats’ greatest performing competitive district in 2024, Republicans still hold a voter registration advantage of nearly 32% compared to Democrats’ near 29%. 

LD9 has one of the tightest advantages among highly competitive districts. The redistricting commission gives Democrats a 2.6% advantage over Republicans despite Republicans leading in voter registration. 

Legislative District 13

The Chandler district of LD13 was another that lost all Democratic representation in the Legislature in 2024, with all three seats going to Republicans. 

Reps. Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler; and Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, both defeated their Democratic opponents, Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales, in 2024, as both Republicans received nearly 26% of the vote each to lead all candidates in that race.

Willoughby is now seeking to flip chambers as Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, will be termed out of his seat after this year. Weninger is running for Chandler Mayor, and current Republican Chandler Mayor Kevin Hartke is running for the state House in LD13. The only other candidate running for Senate in the district is Democrat Kristie O’Brien.

Weninger’s wife, Janet Weninger, announced in September she’s running for the state House as a Republican in the district. 

“As a mom, foster care advocate, and entrepreneur, I have spent my life helping others succeed. Arizona is well-positioned for success, but there is more work to be done. From repairing the Department of Child Safety, to fighting for law enforcement, to ensuring parents can make decisions in the best interest of their kids, our best days lie ahead,” Janet Weninger said in a statement when she launched her campaign.

Reese and Democrat Racquel Armstrong will be running for the House and Republicans Debra Schinke and Joe Granado have also filed statements of interest for House seats.

Despite Republicans accounting for almost 36% of registered voters in the district, LD13 has an even tighter redistricting commission vote spread than LD9, with Republicans holding a 1.56% advantage in the highly competitive district. Democrats make up about 27% of registered voters in the district.

Legislative District 16

Republicans also took all three seats in LD16, which includes Casa Grande. 

Former Democratic state Rep. Keith Seaman lost his 2024 bid for reelection by about 2.5% of votes to Rep. Chris Lopez, R-Casa Grande. Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande, took home the most votes in the House race and Seaman’s daughter, Stacey Seaman, lost to Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, by 12% of votes.

Shope is running for re-election and Democrat Elaine Aldrete is the only other candidate in the Senate race. 

De Los Santos said some districts would only see one Democratic candidate running as a “single-shot” candidate for the House in an attempt to focus the voter pool on one candidate for at least one House seat. Only Democrat Dean Dill has filed paperwork to run for the House, while Martinez and Lopez are the only Republicans who are running so far. 

About one-third of registered voters in the district are Republicans and 27% are Democrats. LD16 is another one of the redistricting commission’s highly competitive districts and Republicans have a 3.62% advantage. 

Legislative District 17 and Legislative District 23

Neither of these districts is considered competitive by the redistricting commission, but both saw upset victories over the parties that held advantages in each. 

In LD17, which includes Oro Valley, Marana and Tucson, Rep. Kevin Volk, D-Tucson, beat former Republican Rep. and Freedom Caucus member Cory McGarr by more than 2% of votes in the district as a single-shot candidate despite Republicans holding more than 8% advantage in the district, according to the redistricting commission. 

Volk is running for re-election along with his seatmate, Rep. Rachel Jones, R-Tucson. Democrat Matthew Coelho has also filed a statement of interest for a House race, but Democrats narrowly lost to McGarr and Keshel in 2022 when they ran two House candidates instead of single-shotting. 

Republicans Kirk Fiehler, Avery Block and John Winchester have also filed statements of interest for the House. 

Sen. Vince Leach, R-Tucson, is not seeking re-election in LD17. He beat the late Democrat John McLean by 2% of votes shortly before McLean’s death. 

Republicans Christopher King and Anthony Dunham have filed paperwork to run for the Senate in LD17, along with Democrat Hunter Holt.

In LD23, Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma, has won both her 2024 and 2022 elections despite Democrats having nearly a 17% advantage, according to the redistricting commission. Pena was the top vote-getter in the district’s House race with more than 34% of votes while Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Yuma, took the other House seat.

Pena is joined by two other Republicans, Gary Garcia Snyder and James Holmes, in filing paperwork to run for the House. Sandoval is running for re-election and Democrats Emilia Cortez and Juan Manuel Guerrero are also running for the House.

New Faces: Pamela Carter

Pamela Carter

The newest representative in Legislative District 4 is a major pickup for the GOP, which took both House seats in one of the most competitive districts of the state. Representative-elect Pamela Carter, a Republican from Scottsdale, will serve her first term at the Legislature after previously running for Scottsdale City Council in 2022. Carter will serve on the Natural Resource, Energy, and Water Committee, the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and she will be the vice chairwoman of the Public Safety and Law Enforcement Committee. Carter lists low taxes, school safety and supporting law enforcement as some of her top legislative priorities on her campaign website. “I’m committed to protecting our children from radical left-wing agendas that seek to impose harmful ideologies on kids,” Carter wrote on her campaign website. “I firmly believe parents should have the final say in matters regarding their children’s education.” She once owned a sports medicine and weight training business in Scottsdale, which served NFL athletes and ASU football players, leading to the TV show “Get in Shape with Pamela Carter” that aired for 18 years. Carter did not return a request for an interview from the Arizona Capitol Times before its publishing deadline.

New Faces: Carine Werner

Carine Werner will serve Legislative District 4 in the Senate after defeating incumbent Christine Marsh. Werner has served on the governing board of the Scottsdale Unified School District since 2022 and will serve as vice chair of the Senate Education Committee next session. She will also be the only Senate freshman to chair a committee as head of the Committee on Health and Human Services. Throughout her campaign, Werner highlighted education as her top priority and is supportive of the Empowerment Scholarship Accounts program. Werner lists teacher pay and parents’ rights as her top education issues. She also includes support for law enforcement, securing the border, addressing homelessness and lowering the cost of living as some of her priorities, according to her campaign website. Werner made headlines in 2020 for pushing Scottsdale Unified School District to restart sports and extracurricular programs during the Covid pandemic. She and her husband co-own a real estate consulting firm and she has three children. Werner did not immediately respond to a request for an interview. 

Incumbent Marsh loses lead in narrow LD4 Senate race

A Republican school board member in Scottsdale running for state Senate in Legislative District 4 has taken the lead over a Democrat incumbent.

Carine Werner, who currently serves on the Scottsdale Unified Governing Board, now leads by 1% of votes in the district. She has 50.5% to Sen. Christine Marsh’s 49.5%. Earlier Wednesday, Werner closed the gap from Tuesday to just .04%.

The two candidates are competing for a senate seat to represent Legislative District 4, which comprises North Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. 

It is a crucial seat for both Republicans and Democrats with a 16-14 GOP majority in the Senate. A win for Marsh would not gain Democrats a seat, but it would keep the party close as they try to pick up seats in other districts, while Republicans are looking for breathing room by flipping Marsh’s seat. 

A measure passed by the legislature and signed into law in 2022 now requires any race within half a percent to be automatically recounted.

In 2022, Marsh beat former Republican Sen. Nancy Barto by 1% of votes in her race, which resulted in Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, being the only GOP representation of the district at the state legislature. 

LD4 leans Republican with nearly 3.5% of voters favoring GOP candidates, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. It is one of the commission’s highly competitive districts of the state. 

GOP consultant and LD4 resident Chuck Coughlin called the district the most purple district of the state. 

Werner, a governing board member of Scottsdale Unified School District, is seeking her first term of office at the legislature. She is running on a ticket with Gress, whose seat Democrats are also heavily focusing on flipping in the state House

Marsh has served in the Senate since 2020 when she narrowly beat former Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee after losing to her by 0.2% of votes in 2018.

Republican House incumbent takes lead in LD4

A Republican incumbent running for the state House in the pivotal Legislative District 4 has taken the lead over two Democrat opponents Wednesday. 

Incumbent Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, leads Democrats Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham at approximately 10 a.m. as the top vote-getter in the race.

hotel, shelter, homeless, Scottsdale, Gress, David Ortega
Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix

Gress has received 26.34% of votes cast in the district. Butler also leads with 25.08% of votes for the second House seat in the district. Gresham has fallen behind with 24.32% after the two Democrats jumped to early leads over Gress Tuesday night.

The other Republican running in the race, Pamela Carter, has 24.26% of votes. 

If results hold, then both parties will have no net gains or losses in the district’s House representation, with the district currently represented by Gress and appointed Rep. Eric Meyer, D-Paradise Valley. 

Gress was first elected in 2022 and has made efforts to reach across the aisle on numerous occasions during his term in office. He was a key figure in getting the state’s 1864 abortion ban repealed in the 2024 legislative session, pushing the measure through with Democrats in the House and losing his seat on the House Appropriations Committee for going against Republican leadership. 

Butler was first elected to the House in 2016 and served until 2022. She is now a governing board member of Maricopa County Community College District but is now seeking election again in the district.

Carter and Gresham are seeking their first terms in the legislature. Democrats didn’t run two House candidates in the district after the state was redistricted for the 2022 election but now they’re trying to pick up Gress’s seat. 

Former Democratic state Rep. Laura Terech won in 2022 with Gress. The other Republican in that district, Maria Syms, trailed Terech in that race by just under 2% of votes. 

LD4 leans slightly Republican with about a 3.5% vote spread favoring GOP candidates. It is one of the highly competitive districts in the state, but Democrats have performed well in the district since 2022 with Terech’s win and Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix, winning that year’s Senate race as well. 

Dems target GOP incumbent in LD4, push abortion issue

A Republican House incumbent is defending his seat in a pivotal swing district where candidates’ stance on abortion could be a deciding factor. 

Only one Democrat ran for the House in Legislative District 4 in 2022, but this year Democratic candidates Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham are hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, by portraying him as an ”extreme anti-abortion” candidate. 

The Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee pointed out the conservative nonprofit lobbying group the Center for Arizona Policy endorsed Gress in a Sept. 26 news release. The group’s mission statement is to “promote and defend the foundational values of life, marriage and family, and religious freedom.”

“Voters have made it clear that they will be supporting candidates this November who will protect access to abortion,” Elsa O’Callaghan, the Democratic group’s executive director, said in the news release. “These endorsements show that Republican candidates are out of step with the voters of their districts, who believe in basic access to reproductive healthcare and protecting LGBTQ+ Arizonans.” 

Gress, a former budget director for former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, is seeking his second term of office representing the swing district of LD4, which covers north Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. 

But Gress was instrumental in repealing the state’s 1864 abortion ban, which saw numerous efforts by GOP leadership to block the legislation from being heard on the House floor. He pushed for the legislation to receive a House vote numerous times with Democrats and lobbied other Republicans to vote in repealing the territorial era ban, calling it “unworkable” and not reflective of the values of most of the electorate.

His push to get the repeal bill heard on the floor cost him politically within his party. House Speaker Ben Toma, R-Peoria, removed him from the House Appropriations Committee after the bill got through the House. Some of his House Republican colleagues suggested Republicans single-shot LD4 with Gress’ running mate Pamela Carter, a business owner who worked for former President Donald Trump’s campaign in 2020. 

“We only need 1 (Republican) in LD4. Single shot Pam Carter,” Rep. Jacqueline Parker, R-Mesa, wrote in an April 24 post on X after the abortion ban repeal bill made it through the House. 

Carter previously ran for Scottsdale City Council in 2022, but lost by about 15% to Councilman Barry Graham. She is the sister of Lynda Carter, who played Wonder Woman in the 1970s, but Mother Jones reported on Sept. 13 that Lynda Carter is not endorsing her sister in her legislative race. 

During Carter’s campaign for Scottsdale City Council, she said she hoped the Legislature would not allow any abortions after Roe v. Wade was overturned. 

GOP Consultant Chuck Coughlin, a resident of LD4, said Carter’s stance on abortion could cost her a seat in the district where he believes its residents are seeking a moderate solution for abortion issues.

“There’s people that are just frustrated with politics,” Coughlin said. “The more that they see people trying to solve problems – AKA the abortion issue – I think the more that they’re likely to support them.”

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission gives Republicans a slight advantage in the district with a 3.4% vote spread. Voters in the district elected Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix, along with Gress and Laura Terech, in 2022. 

Gress was the lead vote-getter in the 2022 LD4 House race, while Terech got just under 2% more votes than Republican Maria Syms. Gress finished with just more than 1% more votes than Terech.

Republicans have one-seat majorities in both the House and Senate. Tyler Montague, an East Valley Republican who helped lead the recall of former Senate President Russell Pearce, said any strategy from Republicans to unseat Gress would be unwise if they want to maintain control of the House. 

“They would rather be in the minority and be pure than to have a bigger tent and win,” Montague said. “They’ve always been that way before they called themselves the Freedom Caucus.”

Running against the Republicans are former Rep. Kelli Butler and Madison Elementary School District Board member Karen Gresham. Democrats won one of the House seats in 2022 when former state Rep. Laura Terech won in the 2022 general election. However, her departure from the Legislature in June leaves Democrats without an incumbent in the race. 

Butler served three terms in the House from 2017-2024 and previously represented parts of the district. She is currently a member of the Maricopa County Community College District Governing Board.

Gresham has served on the Madison Elementary School District Governing Board since 2020, when she beat Gress by less than 1% of votes for a spot on the board.

Both Butler and Gresham oppose the state’s current 15-week abortion ban and have called it an “arbitrary” number. Gress mostly supports the 15-week law but said he thinks some additional exceptions are needed. 

Both Republican and Democratic slates ran uncontested during the primary, and Gress got the most votes among any candidate with 24,366 votes. Butler got the second-most with nearly 21,000 votes, while Carter got about 19,400 votes and Gresham got 18,900. 

Gress has been a fundraising juggernaut among legislative candidates since his 2022 campaign. Pre-primary election campaign finance reports indicate Gress has led the candidates in campaign fundraising, with over $400,000 raised before early July. Butler and Gresham nearly matched that, with a combined $381,000 during the same time period. Pamela Carter raised about $85,000.

“(Ducey), if nothing, was a prolific fundraiser with people who wanted to be supportive of him,” Coughlin said. “Matt has positioned himself as the heir apparent to that goodwill and has had a lot of support from the former governor and the entire Ducey alumni network … he’s a progenitor of what Ducey was.

Coughlin also said Democratic fundraising efforts in the district have been strong, too. Terech’s replacement in the Legislature is Rep. Eric Meyer, D-Paradise Valley, a former House minority leader who helped create the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee with Gov. Katie Hobbs back when she was a legislator. 

Butler and Gresham broke the record for second-quarter fundraising for a House candidate post-2002, when the state began collecting data online, according to a July 11 news release from the ADLCC.

Former Democratic lawmaker gets nod to fill House vacancy

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors appointed a seventh Democrat to the state House of Representatives since January. 

The board appointed former House Minority Leader Eric Meyer Monday morning to replace former Rep. Laura Terech, who resigned in June to work at the Secretary of State’s Office. The appointment fills a vacancy in Legislative District 4, which covers North Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. 

“I am so excited and honored to be serving the constituents of Legislative District 4,” Meyer said in a Monday news release. “I enjoyed my years of prior service in the House and look forward to responding to the needs of my constituents and to the issues facing all Arizonans. I am humbled to have this opportunity and understand the importance and magnitude of my appointed position.”

Meyer, a medical doctor from Paradise Valley, served in the House from 2009 to 2017 and was minority leader from 2014 to 2016. He was one of three nominees selected by LD4 Democratic precinct committeemen in July to be considered by the board for the appointment to the vacant seat. 

The other two nominees were former state Rep. Kelli Butler and Madison Elementary School District Board member Karen Gresham. Both Butler and Gresham are running for election to the state House this November. 

During the precinct committee meeting when the three nominees were chosen, Meyer said he preferred for Butler or Gresham to get the appointment. 

Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates made the motion to appoint Meyer and said while all three candidates were strong, Meyer has experience if the legislature is called into session. 

“I’ve served with Dr. Meyer, seen his commitment to public service in action, and am thrilled to welcome him back to our caucus,” House Minority Leader Lupe Contreras said. “He was an effective and forward-looking leader, and a staunch voice for Arizona’s public schools, our healthcare safety net and our environment. All three of the candidates put forward for consideration – including Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham – were stellar choices. Even if it’s temporary, our caucus and our constituents will benefit with Dr. Meyer back in the fold.”

Since January, the board has appointed seven members to the legislature – all House Democrats. Last year, the board appointed four members to the legislature, and the Pima County Board of Supervisors appointed one member.

“I don’t know if it’s a record number, but we’ve had a lot of appointments to the Arizona legislature that the board has been responsible for, and all my colleagues and I take this responsibility very seriously,” Gates said. 

Terech joins former state Reps. Athena Salman, Amish Shah, Jennifer Longdon, Leezah Sun, Jevin Hodge and Marcelino Quinonez who have resigned in recent memory. She announced shortly after her resignation that she’s working on special projects within the Secretary of State’s Office. 

Terech was one of the instrumental negotiators on a bill during the 2024 legislative session that moved the primary election to July 30 that ensured overseas voters would be able to participate in the general election this year if a recount was triggered. 

Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, holds the other seat in the district. He and Terech worked on several bipartisan measures together during both their first-terms and spoke complimentary of each other often. 

He said Monday he was looking forward to working with Meyer. 

“Dr. Meyer brings a wealth of experience back to the legislature, having served in the House for eight years. His strong ties to the community and passion for public service will ensure continuity for our constituents through the end of the year,” Gress said. 

House Democrats haven’t announced details for Meyer’s swearing-in ceremony yet. 

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