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Competing measures on early voting could wind up on the November ballot

Key Points:

  • A ballot proposal would confirm voting by mail in the state Constitution
  • A GOP lawmaker wants control over early voting to remain within the Legislature   
  • Because of early voting rules, Arizona is among the last states to verify results

A new initiative seeks to ask Arizona voters whether they want to constitutionally preserve the right that nearly 90% of them use: to vote early and even drop off their ballots on Election Day.

A petition drive has been launched by a group calling itself Protect the Vote Arizona to add a provision to the Arizona Constitution recognizing a “fundamental right” to vote early and on Election Day. And that, according to Stacy Pearson, whose Lumen Strategies is managing the campaign, includes not just showing up in person to cast a ballot but also dropping off the ballots that were mailed to their homes.

What it also would cement into the Constitution is that the right to vote early can be exercised “without providing a reason or excuse.”

Who is behind the campaign is less clear.

Pearson has a history of working with Democratic candidates and causes. But she insisted that this is a bipartisan effort.

She also would not disclose who the leaders of the effort are, nor who will fund what could be an expensive campaign to gather the 383,923 valid signatures by July 2 to get the issue on the November ballot. Instead, Pearson said that they will have to wait until the group actually starts gathering signatures.

But Rep. Alexander Kolodin, who is pushing his own contrary measure, said he is “well aware of who this progressive, far-Left organization is and the out-of-state dark money billionaires backing them.” 

The Scottsdale Republican, however, did not respond to inquiries seeking specifics.

Kolodin hopes to get his legislative colleagues to put his own measure on the ballot.

One key provision of his HCR 2001 would preserve the Legislature’s right to conclude at some future date that there is no right to vote early.

That is not a sure thing. In fact, Kolodin himself, before becoming a legislator, filed an unsuccessful lawsuit on behalf of the Arizona Republican Party, arguing that the Arizona Constitution permits only in-person voting.

What his measure definitely would do is end early voting no later than 7 p.m. on the Friday prior to the election.

What’s behind that new deadline is the argument that last-minute drop-offs lead to delays in people finding out who actually won.

The problem is that early ballots cannot be tabulated until the signatures on the envelopes are verified. And that verification process for what are called “late-early ballots” cannot begin until after Election Day.

That’s not a problem when there are just a few of those ballots.

But in the 2024 general election, there were about 265,000 of these, including more than 210,000 in Maricopa County.

All that has led to Arizona gaining a reputation as one of the last states in the nation – if not the last – to have final election returns.

It occurred in 2022 when it took days to confirm that Democrat Katie Hobbs had beaten Republican challenger Kari Lake for governor. And the situation repeated itself in 2024 when delays in processing ballots left many wondering whether Kamala Harris could make up her vote deficit against Donald Trump for president.

Kolodin, who is running for secretary of state – the state’s chief elections officer – said what is in the newly filed initiative is designed to “confuse voters and codify policy that would render Arizona’s elections less secure, less trustworthy, and less lawful.” But Pearson said there is nothing radical about it.

“This now takes mail-in voting as it currently stands, the windows in which it currently stands, and codifies that in the state Constitution,” she said. “It takes mail-in voting that has worked well in Arizona for decades out of the whim of the Legislature.”

And that includes the right to vote early.

That is not a given. In 2022, before he was elected to the House, Kolodin filed suit on behalf of the Arizona Republican Party to challenge the legality of early voting.

Kolodin, in his legal papers, argued that there is nothing in the state Constitution to allow for early voting. He said the only form of voting specifically authorized by the framers of the Constitution is in person and on Election Day.

And what that means, Kolodin said, is that anything else – including the current system of no-excuse early ballots created by the Legislature in 1991 and used by nearly 90% of Arizona – is illegal.

He also presented an alternate legal theory.

Kolodin said that, at the very least, the state was required to return to the way the situation was before 1991. That’s when voters could get early ballots – but only if they provided proof they needed it, such as being away from their voting precinct on Election Day or having a physical disability.

Those arguments were rebuffed by both a trial judge and the Court of Appeals.

What is in the initiative would forever foreclose future efforts to restrict early voting.

It also would overturn another law, signed in 2021 by then-Gov. Doug Ducey, which eliminated the state’s “permanent early voting list.”

Prior to that, people who signed up to receive a ballot by mail continue to receive one until they move, die, or opt out. The new law said anyone who hasn’t used the early ballot in two election cycles would be taken off the list, though they could sign up again.

The initiative would overturn that, establishing a constitutional right for people on the early voting list to continue receiving them for any election for which they are registered unless they ask to be removed, their voter registration is canceled, or the ballot is returned as undeliverable.

Kolodin’s measure is awaiting a final House vote before going to the Senate. If approved there, it would go to voters in November as the governor has no veto power over what lawmakers put on the ballot.

The Protect the Vote Arizona Initiative will be on the ballot if backers get the signatures and it survives expected legal challenges.

Kolodin dismissed the chances of competition with his own plan.

“Republicans in Arizona are unfazed by the astroturfed efforts of groups like this to confuse voters and codify policy that would render Arizona’s elections less secure, less trustworthy, and less lawful,” he said in a prepared statement. But Kolodin did not respond to follow-up questions about exactly what he believes is in the initiative that does any of that.

If both measures are on the ballot and are approved, sections of each that do not conflict with each other could take effect. But where both cannot coexist, the proposal with the most votes would take precedence.

Hobbs not to blame for Dems’ failure to flip Legislature, consultants say

One of Gov. Katie Hobbs’ main priorities this election season was flipping the Legislature, but Republican majorities only grew. Political consultants say the blame for Democrats’ losses doesn’t lie solely with the governor. 

Hobbs said for months that her two goals were flipping the Legislature and passing Proposition 139, which enshrines abortion rights in the Arizona Constitution. Prop. 139 passed handily on Nov. 5, but Democrats ended up even further from the legislative majority than they expected. 

On Nov. 14, Hobbs said at a press conference that she wouldn’t have done anything differently this election cycle.

“We did what we needed to do, and I’m going to work with the Legislature that Arizonans elected,” Hobbs said. 

The Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which Hobbs worked closely with during the election cycle, released a statement that attributed the strengthened Republican majorities to “top-of-the-ticket trends.”

“Across the country, down-ballot Democrats worked tirelessly to combat top-of-the-ticket trends,” said ADLCC Executive Director Elsa O’Callaghan in a statement. “It is now clear that those trends proved to be insurmountable.” 

Some Republicans started pointing fingers at Hobbs, saying her political clout was hurtful and not helpful to the Democratic candidates she stumped for. But consultants on both sides of the aisle aren’t so sure.

“Blaming her for this is convenient but inaccurate,” said Stacy Pearson, a Democratic campaign consultant. “I get that because she made this a public priority, that she’s going to get the public criticism, but this is not that.” 

Pearson said she attributes the losses across the ballot to a lack of focus from Democrats on registering more voters to counteract the Republicans’ voter registration advantage. 

“This is not an admonishment of her leadership,” Pearson said. “This is a much bigger scenario in the state of Arizona, where new residents are moving here, and they’re not registering as Democrats. It is a much, much bigger national landscape.”

Barrett Marson, a Republican consultant, also highlighted national trends as a possible explanation for Democratic losses in Arizona.

“I don’t think Arizona’s election results are on Katie Hobbs because I think there was a mood among voters that transcends state politics,” Marson said.

He also placed blame on fundraising and messaging from the Democrats, saying money was wasted by not talking about big ticket issues like the economy and the border. 

Marson said Hobbs will need to keep those trends in mind as she heads into the next legislative session because voters will likely be thinking of similar issues when she is expected to run for reelection in 2026. 

“She’ll have to read these election results and see that she may have to tack a little right, she may have to negotiate a bit more with legislative Republicans and sign some of the things that maybe she opposes or isn’t a fan of because clearly, voters preferred Republicans in the 2024 election, up and down the ballot,” Marson said.

No Republican challengers have officially announced their candidacy for governor yet, but some Republicans are floating rumors that the Democrats may find someone to replace Hobbs at the top of the ticket. Both Pearson and Marson say a primary challenge to Hobbs is highly unlikely.

“Get in at your own peril, if somebody wants to come in, but it’s just that’s not how the infrastructure works,” Pearson said. “I think folks that are encouraging or wishing for or optimistic about a Democratic primary are just doing it for publicity value, it’s not going to happen.” 

Pearson and Marson both said Hobbs’ massive campaign war chest and proven fundraising abilities will be a huge deterrent for any Democratic challenger. Hobbs spent much of her campaign funds on legislative races this year, but had nearly $3 million in cash on hand before the election. 

Marson said that doesn’t mean Hobbs should rest on her incumbent advantage, as he said he believes she will face an even stronger Republican challenger in 2026 than she did in 2022 when she squared off against Kari Lake. 

“She still has several million dollars in the bank and a record to run on, but it’s got to be a record of more than just vetoes,” Marson said. “She is the veto queen, there’s no doubt about that. That veto stamp works overtime, but she’s going to have to tell voters what she has done, what she is for, not just what she is against.”

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