Presidential candidates made sure they were well acquainted with Arizona voters four years ago, when the state held its primary right after Iowa and New Hampshire.
This year, Arizona’s primary has dropped in stature as numerous other states decided to hold primaries early. Arizona’s primary now comes after contests in seven other states, and voters will be among those from 20 states to pick their party’s candidate on Feb. 5.
“It’s really not going to be relevant at all,” Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill said of Arizona’s primary.
Even if the primary races remain undecided, Merrill said it’s likely candidates will devote much of their time to states like California and New York that offer a windfall of delegates to the primary winner.
Arizona Dems: primary already decided?
For the Democrats, the race might be over unless someone can cut into Sen. Hillary Clinton’s substantial lead in state polls, Merrill said.
In the latest poll by ASU’s KAET-TV and Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication, 70 percent of the Democratic voters who had made a decision about their candidate said they preferred Clinton. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama came in at 18 percent and former Sen. John Edwards received 9 percent.
“On the Democratic side, I think it’s pretty much going to be over in terms of Hillary Clinton. Her organization is much stronger than Obama here,” Merrill said.
Raul Alvillar, director of Obama’s campaign in Arizona, said the senator opened a campaign headquarters in Arizona earlier this month in hopes of cutting into Clinton’s lead. Obama held his first rally here on Oct. 19 at ASU, and drew more than 5,000 people.
“It’s still early, anything can happen,” Alvillar said.
Alvillar said for now Obama will concentrate on early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. If Obama can have a strong showing early, Alvillar said the hope is that he’ll have momentum going into the Feb. 5 primaries. Arizona is “extremely important. The Southwest is important.”
Race is still on for Arizona GOP candidates
The Republican primary looks to be much more of a contest. Arizona Sen. John McCain polled about even with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Arizona Republicans who have settled on a candidate.
In the survey, 29 percent of Republican voters who had made a decision said they supported McCain, while 25 percent chose Romney, who has visited Arizona three times since announcing his bid for the GOP nomination.
If the nominations are wrapped up by Feb. 5, Arizona will remain a prominent backdrop in national politics as candidates debate illegal immigration, said Fred Solop, a political science professor and pollster at Northern Arizona University.
“Arizona’s politics about immigration are very different from California,” Solop said.
“We’re taking a stronger stand as a population against illegal immigration and for denial of services. So it makes sense that Arizona becomes a backdrop for policies that look at border security for instance or policies that address social services for illegal immigrants.”

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