TUCSON — A University of Arizona scientist is creating models to identify sources of airborne dust and other matter, as well as to anticipate where it will all end up.
Once a prediction is made about an incoming storm, experts can give the data to health providers, who can then alert the public, said William Sprigg, a research professor in the UofA Department of Atmospheric Sciences and at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
With changes to global climate and habitats, more bare soil is being exposed to the open air and weather, increasing sand and dust storms, especially in already dry areas.
The dust can pose big health problems, said Sprigg.
Dust is a contributor to the incidence in Arizona of valley fever, a fungal infection that results when people inhale spores in soil. The disease can lead to severe respiratory problems.
Sprigg has been creating models to predict downwind concentrations of dust as well as metals and minerals.
All of these are concerns in Arizona, he said, where there are closed mines that can end up sending small bits of easily inhaled metal into the air.
Predictions have become much more accurate and useful recently with the use of NASA satellites to create models.
“We’re confident in using NASA satellite map sources,” Sprigg said.
From now on, the satellites — including those in future launches — will be an integral part of the prediction system. Currently, a storm can be detected three days in advance with accuracy to within a couple of hours as to when it will come down in particular areas, Sprigg said.
The system thus could be used to not only warn people to go inside, but the information could be transmitted to alert drivers of dust approaching highways.
Sprigg said several applications of the model are being considered.
Part of the research is to “make guesses about how future climates might affect these patterns,” he said.
If the climate gets wetter or drier or otherwise changes, the dust storms also may change, an important factor to consider because climate change already is occurring. ?